Hello and welcome to the May update of the sugarcane rainfall outlook for the southern
Queensland growing region. This presentation will be covering recent rainfall totals recorded so
far in May then the forecast rainfall over the short term. We'll then look at the June and July
rainfall Outlooks in detail before a summary of the Winter Rainfall Outlook and climate drivers.
During May we've seen rainfall totals of around 15 to 20 millimetres through the northern Wide
Bay increasing to 25 to 30 millimetres around Maryborough and 90 to 120 millimetres in the
vicinity of the Sunshine Coast. Looking at the red dots on the right we can see rainfall totals have
been well below average so far through the Wide Bay and Burnett, with most locations receiving
only 25 to 35 percent of their median May rainfall totals to date. Rainfall totals around
the Nambour region are closer to the May median standing at around 75% of May rainfall so far.
A cold front will move across southern Queensland on Friday and combine with a large high building
over southwestern Australia to reinforce a cold, dry airflow across the region during the weekend
and early part of next week. As we can see from the 10-day rainfall accumulation graphic above, no
rainfall is expected for the Wide Bay and Burnett and Sunshine Coast regions in the 10-day period to
Saturday 3rd of June. Minimum temperatures are expected to drop six to ten degrees
below the May average on Sunday and Monday, with temperatures gradually warming from mid next week.
Here we have the chance of exceeding 25 millimetres of rainfall over the next
fortnight broken down into week-long periods. You can access these maps on the link above. I
have selected 25 millimetres to display here and on the website there are a number of different
rainfall thresholds available between one millimetre and 700 millimetres to choose
from on the left week one covers from the 28th of May to the 3rd of June and week 2 from the
4th of June to the 10th of June on the right for the Wide Bay and Burnett and Sunshine Coast
region. We are looking at a mostly dry fortnight ahead with a high pressure system dominating
leading to a less than 10% chance of exceeding 25 millimetres in week one across the region,
and less than 10% chance across most of the region into week two with the exception of
a 10 to 25 chance of exceeding 25 millimetres of rainfall around the Sunshine Coast region.
Into the whole of June Outlook, and an average to slightly below average chance around 35 to 60% of
exceeding the June median rainfall is predicted, with moderate to high skill at this time of year,
typically correct getting it correct 55 to 65% of the time. For further information,
including point location forecasts check out the Bureau Climate Outlooks page link above.
This translates into a slightly lower chance of seeing rainfall close to the historical
median for the month as we can see from the lower rainfall values in the 50% chance of
at least chart on the left, compared with the historical median values on the right.
Expanding further on the possible June rainfall totals here with the high chance on the left
75% chance of exceeding, or three out of four times we would expect to see at least this much
through the month of June, and the lower chance totals on the right the 25% chance of exceeding,
or one out of four times we would expect to see these totals exceeded this June. Moving
on to the month of July and a slightly wetter signature is evident on the Rainfall Outlook
with a near to slightly above average 40 to 65% chance of exceeding the July median rainfall. The
model skill during July is moderate to high and typically correct 55 to 75% of the time.
This translates into a roughly equal chance of seeing rainfall close to the historical
median for the month ,as we can see from this comparison of the 50% chance of at least chart
on the left with the historical median map on the right, both looking fairly similar.
Expanding further on the possible July rainfall totals here with the high chance on the left
the 75% chance of exceeding and the lower chance totals on the right the 25% chance of exceeding.
A quick snapshot now of the rainfall outlook for winter months through June to August as a whole,
and we see a neutral signal, so an about equal chance of exceeding the median rainfall across
Winter. The model is typically correct 55 to 65% of the time through this forecast period.
We are currently in an El Niño Watch, with a 50% chance of an El Niño forming later this year,
around double the normal likelihood. In recent months we have observed the eastern tropical
Pacific waters warming, but we've seen little atmospheric response yet. All International
climate models indicate it is likely that Pacific ocean temperatures will reach El Niño thresholds
during late Winter however an atmospheric response is also required for an El Niño to be declared by
the Bureau. El Niño is normally associated with lower than average Winter and Spring rainfall over
eastern Australia. This translates into an about equal or slightly lower chance of seeing rainfall
close to the historical median for the Winter, as we can see from the slightly lower values on the
50% chance of at least chart on the left, compared with the historical median map on the right.
That's it for this update, as always check the latest forecasts and warnings on the bureau's
website or the BOM Weather App, and be sure to send any feedback through to agriculture@bom.gov.au, we'd love to hear from you. See you next Outlook, thanks for listening.