The Philippines faces an energy crisis
China offers cooperation
But is it a trap?
Welcome to China Uncensored. I’m Chris Chappell.
Like the rest of the world, the Philippines is having an energy crisis.
It relies on coal and oil imports, and with energy prices skyrocketing,
the Philippines needs to find solutions.
Fortunately, the Philippines can produce some of its own energy thanks to the Malampaya natural gas
fields. It’s the country’s sole source of natural gas, accounting for some 20% of its energy.
But it’s expected to be depleted by 2027.
That’s why the Philippines has its eyes on the Reed Bank,
an energy-rich area full of oil and gas deposits in…the South China Sea.
If you’re a China Uncensored fan, you can probably see where this is going.
Reed Bank is within the Philippines' 200-mile exclusive economic zone,
which means the Philippines should have exclusive rights to all that natural gas,
according to international law. Of course, according to the Chinese
Communist Party, China owns the entire South China Sea thanks to its Nine Dash Line claim.
Which is why China has rammed and sunk Filipino fishing boats around Reed Bank.
Back in 2016, the Philippines brought a case
against China’s claims to an international tribunal.
And the tribunal famously rejected China’s Nine-Dash
Line claim over the entire South China Sea.
So naturally, Beijing turned around and rejected the tribunal’s ruling.
It’s the foreign policy equivalent of sticking their fingers in their
ears and yelling “lalalalala I can’t hear you.”
And yet the rest of the world keeps giving in to China’s tantrums every time.
After all, we wouldn’t want to anger China.
That was pretty much the attitude of Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte while he was in office.
Duterte said he’d “set aside” the tribunal’s ruling
on the South China Sea. Even though the Philippines won.
He also signed a memorandum of understanding with China in 2018
to explore possible energy cooperation.
Duterte also said it was necessary to remain meek and humble
to get the “mercy” of Chinese leader Xi Jinping.
Yeah, this is the guy who threatened to personally kill drug dealers,
and then claimed he would jet ski to claim disputed islands in the South China Sea.
He sure knows how to be meek and humble. For some of Xi Jinping’s sweet,
sweet mercy. And by “mercy” he means a promised 24 billion dollars of investments in the Philippines.
In 2020, Duterte also lifted a previous ban on oil exploration in Reed Bank.
Although the Philippines claimed this was not done in discussion with China,
the Chinese regime seemed pretty happy about it.
It was a pretty big sign that the energy deal between China and the Philippines was going ahead.
Even though China didn’t keep its investment promises.
But no matter what, it looked like the energy deal was still happening.
In fact, Duterte still warned earlier this year that the Philippines must honor
the joint exploration agreement with Beijing or face conflict.
Then, just before the Philippines’ new President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. took office,
Duterte suddenly ended the joint energy exploration talks with China.
A last-minute Uno reverse. Nice. I’ll explain how China reacted after the break.
Welcome back.
For years, the Philippines tried to appease China, hoping that the
two countries would be able to cooperate on energy exploration in the South China Sea.
Until Duterte suddenly abandoned the deal.
According to the Philippines’ outgoing-Foreign Affairs Secretary , it was because the
Philippines was ultimately unwilling to give up sovereignty over their territorial claims.
The Chinese Communist Party didn’t sweat it.
Because now there’s a new president in town: Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr.
So how will Marcos approach China?
On the one hand, Marcos’s dictator father) was close to China.
And during his campaign, Marcos said that if elected, he would follow Duterte
in setting aside the 2016 arbitral ruling, and negotiate directly with his “friends” from China.
But after his election victory, Marcos said he would uphold the 2016 ruling.
And that he would not compromise sovereignty in any way.
But Marcos has also said that he wants to increase the scope of ties with China.
Not just focus on the territorial dispute.
One of the things he mentioned was joint business ventures.
So who knows. That energy deal with China could be back on the table.
But in a way, it’s all a trap. Don’t get me wrong. The Chinese regime would love
to make some money on those natural gas deposits in the South China Sea.
But even if the Philippines does decide to keep all the natural gas on Reed Bank, and even if
the Chinese regime stops sinking Filipino ships, the Philippines will still be dependent on China
for energy. Because China exports a lot of oil to the Philippines. So either way, China wins.
And now it’s time for me to answer a question from a fan who supports China Uncensored through the
crowdfunding website Patreon. As a perk, I answer supporters’ questions at the end of episodes.
Freedom Fighter asks: If you were tasked with making Taiwan an independent country,
how would you approach this whilst minimizing the chances of starting a full scale war with China?
Good question, Freedom Fighter.
Here’s the problem: There’s no way to minimize the chances of starting a full-scale war with China.
The Chinese regime plans to invade Taiwan. That’s their plan,
regardless of whether the rest of the world recognizes Taiwan as an independent country.
They might *use* this diplomatic change as an excuse, but the party’s intention is to invade.
It’d be like if someone said a year ago: “If we don’t let Ukraine join NATO, then we won’t
risk angering Russia, and therefore Russia won’t invade.” Well, I’ve got news for you, Mr. 2021:
Russia gonna Russia.
So what’s the best approach to Taiwan? Well if I were Supreme Leader of these United States,
I’d let it be the Chinese Communist Party’s fault. I’d warn the Party that the next time
they escalate their harassment of Taiwan, there will be severe consequences. And they might cross
that line just to test the US, because China gonna China. And if they do, I’d announce, “Ok,
then in response to your actions, we’re going to diplomatically recognize Taiwan.”
Will that trigger the Communist Party to invade Taiwan?
Maybe. But they won’t do it if they’re not ready yet.
Although that also means the US needs to get ready too.
There are things the US should be doing *right now* before recognizing Taiwan as a country.
For example, doing joint military exercises with Taiwan. Signing trade deals with Taiwan. Making
it clear that the US fully supports Taiwan. Plus the US needs to make sure the Taiwanese government
is ready for any changes in US policy. After all, Taiwan is the place that’s under threat.
Thanks for your question, Freedom Fighter.
And thank you to everyone watching China Uncensored. Because our funding doesn’t come
from giant corporations or governments. Most of it is directly from viewers like you—who
contribute a dollar or more per episode through Patreon. Be like Freedom Fighter,
and go to patreon.com/chinauncensored and learn how you can help us keep making this show.
Once again, I’m Chris Chappell. Thanks for watching China Uncensored.