Ben: The way the world produces and uses energy
is visibly changing.
Ben: But to meet the most ambitious goals of the
Paris agreement, change needs to happen faster.
Ben: Shell is becoming an energy business for
the future, and it's playing its part to help
drive that change.
Ben: Our scenarios help inform our thinking and show how the
energy system could transform quicker.
Geraldine: The transition of the world's energy system is
happening while global population is growing.
Potentially to 11 billion by the end of the century.
Geraldine: That's more people, requiring more energy for a
better quality of life.
Ben: So the question is, what could this energy system
look like?
Mallika: For the global economy to achieve net-zero carbon
dioxide or CO2 emissions,
electricity, primarily from renewables,
Malika: as well as hydrogen and biofuels are expected to be
important in the future energy system.
Geraldine: Shell Scenarios explore a range
of possible futures, to help make better decisions
today for tomorrow.
Geraldine: Our newest scenarios, Waves,
Islands and Sky 1.5, are all on a path towards net zero
CO2 emissions,
Geraldine: with energy systems eventually
dominated by renewables.
Geraldine: But the choices society makes will determine
how quickly the world moves towards net zero emissions.
Mallika: In the most ambitious scenario, Sky 1.5,
the average global temperature rises above and is then limited
to one point five degrees Celsius above pre-industrial
levels before the end of the century.
Mallika: This requires the entire world to reach net zero
CO2 emissions by sometime before 2060.
Ben: Our scenarios show that leading economies, sectors and
companies must act faster for the world to achieve
this timeline, and we want to be one of
those leading companies.
Ben: Which is why Shell's target is to become a net zero
emissions energy business by 2050 or sooner.
Adam: The Sky 1.5 scenario requires energy efficiency
improvements of around 50% across the global economy,
but more energy will still be needed to meet demand.
Adam: So, the emerging system needs to address the economic
sectors that consume the most energy.
Adam: To get from today's energy consumption to a net-
zero emissions energy system, industry will need to shift
towards more electricity, primarily from renewables,
as well as hydrogen and bioenergy.
Adam: Currently in transport, energy consumption is mostly
from oil based fuels, but the use of hydrogen and biofuels
will need to grow, as will electricity,
mainly from renewables.
Adam: Today, buildings mostly consume energy
from non-renewable sources.
In the future, they will require electricity,
mostly from renewables, with some bioenergy.
Geraldine: Deep electrification of the global economy is needed
to achieve net-zero emissions, which means more than
tripling electricity consumption.
Mallika: In power generation, electricity will increasingly
come from renewables.
Primarily wind and solar, as well as some nuclear.
Natural gas will continue to play an important role
supporting the transition from coal and compensating for the
intermittency of renewables.
Adam: Commercial production of biofuels from biomass
must ramp up, alongside the production and distribution of
hydrogen at scale.
Mallika: To achieve Sky 1.5 unavoidable emissions are
removed from industrial processes or from the
atmosphere using both technology and nature.
Geraldine: While the energy transition is inevitable,
it will proceed at different paces in different places and
sectors and with different degrees of turbulence.
Ben: Faster progress needs pioneering leaders in
government and businesses to act.
Government policy and greater alignment will
also be crucial, country by country and sector by sector,
with each needing a different approach to unlock
well directed investment.
We know that the energy transition can only happen if
governments and businesses incentivize low and zero carbon
choices and if customers embrace these changes.
Ben: There is no doubt the transformation of the energy
system must move faster to limit global warming, and this
is a huge challenge that affects everyone because the
world needs energy to improve lives.
Ben: And for a healthy planet, this must be cleaner energy.
Ben: Put simply, it is going to take ambitious orchestration of
government policy, investment
and sector cooperation.
Ben: Where we believe the world can achieve net zero CO2
emissions to meet the goal of Paris, if industry
government and society work together to make the
right choices now.
Ben: The energy system must change faster and change
is opportunity, Shell is acting today to be part of
this future.