Amna: We are now only 54 days
ahead of the midterm elections
and campaigns nationwide are
gearing up for tough battles.
Historical trends and months of
pulling previously predicted
Democrats will face trouble this
fall but recent data show a red
wave may not be the tsunami
Republicans were hoping for.
Joining me to discuss what may
be watching ahead of the midterm
are to ulcers tracking at all.
Joel benenson is a democratic
strategist that work on Barack
Obama and Hillary Clinton's
residential campaigns.
Neil Newhouse was for John
McCain presidential bid.
Let's talk about the red wave.
We have been hearing about it
for months.
Based upon what you see, what
does it look like to you?
>> The trajectory of this
election has changed and it has
changed because of the Dobbs
decision.
When we look back on this
election next year, this will be
known as the Dobbs election.
It has given Democrats a
foothold to get back into it.
But when you step away from the
numbers and you look at where
the data is right now, Biden
approval rating is 43.
Disapproval above 50.
The mood of the country is
negative.
Americans believe we are in a
recession.
If you look at a snapshot of
those numbers, it's easy to see
Republican optimism in the event
we will win the house and do
well across the country.
But if you look at the
directionality of numbers,
trending numbers, there is no
question Bidens approval has
been approving -- improving.
Concerns about the economy has
easing -- eased.
This is not the election we
thought it would be six months
ago.
This is a different political
environment.
Amna: The conventional wisdom is
the party in power struggles
midterm.
Does it hold?
2 I will take -- >> I will take
the last point about the ballot
being that even in that is not a
good number for Democrats.
Republicans have done much
better at the state levels.
They have been able to
gerrymandered districts to their
benefit just as Democrats do
when we are in power.
But it gives Republican an upper
hand.
I think the house will be very
difficult to hold at this point.
The senate, we have no margin
for error as Democrats.
We are 50-50 with the vice
president the deciding vote.
There are tough races all over
the country.
I think both of them, both
parties right now have about 40
seats up so there will be a
handful of competitive districts
to determine the outcomes.
Some of the Republicans look
good.
In Georgia, the incumbent to is
in a tight battle with Herschel
walker.
I think senator Bennett will
hold his seat.
I think Maggie hassan will hold
her seat.
Then you have tossup's in north
Carolina.
There could be some surprise as
either way here.
I think Neil is right in his
assessment that I also think
Democrats holding here are going
to be a tough thing in both
houses.
Amna: Two very clear message is
emerging, Democrats are
increasingly focused on the loss
of abortion rights.
Republicans focus largely on the
economy and inflation.
Here is how that conversation is
playing out in a senate race.
And a Republican challenger,
take a look at these clips.
>> There is always a challenge.
>> Supporting overturning
abortion protections.
He would let states outlaw it.
>> Inflation through the roof
and higher prices on everything
are costing Nevada families
plenty.
Amna: You have seen Democrats
hammering home this loss of
abortion rights and yesterday,
senator Lindsey graham
introduced a nationwide 15 week
abortion ban.
What did you think when you saw
that happen?
>> His heart may be in the right
place with what he was trying to
do strategically.
The way it was executed and the
fact that it is stepping on the
message that Republicans want to
get out about inflation,
cost-of-living of living, the
economy I think was absolutely
the wrong strategic move to
make.
Anything that Republicans are
doing to take the focus off of
inflation and the economy, the
perceived incompetence of the
Biden administration.
Anything we're doing talking
about other issues doesn't help
in the fall.
Amna: How are those messages
landing?
>> I think it's landing like a
lead balloon.
We have seen reports on voter
registration.
Women and young people are
outperforming what was expected
in voter registration for a
midterm election.
Let's make no mistake about it.
Dobbs is going to be on the
ballot here.
Almost more so than Joe Biden.
The state of Kansas, for
example, voters went to the
ballot and upheld a woman's
right to choose in a Republican
red state.
Presidential level turnout and
60% of the voters were
Republican that day.
I think this is going to cut big
into Republican base voters.
Women in particular, suburban
voters.
I think it is giving Democrats
more of a chance then I would
have given them before the Dobbs
decision.
Amna: Go ahead, Neil.
>> It is giving them a foothold
but it will not determine the
election.
It will be difficult for
Democrats to make the case to
Americans that it is just like
Abortion is on the ballot.
I think in a lot of these red
districts that trump one that
Democrats held, it's a very
difficult argument.
It is the number two vote
deterrent.
Right now, the economy is
teetering a little bit.
55 days left, we have a lot of
land to cover in that time.
Amna: Neil mentioned some of the
things that could come up.
It feels like many political
lifetimes, but what are the
unknowns?
What could change the landscape?
>> I don't think there are
unknowns.
These races are going to be
different.
Except for one thing.
We have seen what happened in
terms of voter registration in
reaction to the Dobbs decision
and we know this is personal for
people.
It reflects their personal
values, not just a political
sense of if gas prices are going
up or down.
It is something that lives every
day in the American mindset
about whether or not you believe
that a woman has a right to make
that choice herself or you
don't.
You have a party that has put a
marker down and Lindsey graham
saying he wants to pass a law
saying abortions are outlawed
after 15 weeks, that was not a
great political move.
But I think it reflects where
the party is.
And I think it reflects
something that will not fade
away on election day.
People are going to walk in and
be thinking about this.
More than they are going to be
thinking about the prices paid
at the pump for gasoline.
They will be thinking about
which one of these people will
really protect my values when
push comes to shove.
And I think this decision has
put Republicans in a very bad
place.
Amna: 54 days to go.
We will be watching closely as
I'm sure both of you will.
Joel benenson and Neil Newhouse,
thank you.