the numbers are gigantic since the
global financial crisis the US Fed the
European Central Bank the Bank of Japan
and the Bank of England had printed
money in bought assets worth 12 trillion
dollars that's huge and unprecedented
can we return monetary policy to
something like normal with interest
rates closer to 5 rather than zero and
central bank balance sheet shrunk back
to about 3 trillion dollars the short
answer is not in in their future the US
Fed has come closest to the great unwind
it plans to shrink its balance sheet
later this year this will probably start
in the autumn with a monthly reduction
in the efforts held by the central bank
of six billion dollars rising gradually
to a maximum of 30 billion dollars a
month compared with the four point five
trillion dollars it holds this is just
dipping its toe in the water no other
major central bank is anywhere near
those in the eurozone and the Bank of
Japan are still printing money and
buying more assets a Bank of England
faces huge brexit uncertainties and all
the while interest rates will remain
very low partly because aging
populations low productivity growth and
a savings cut have reduced the
attractiveness of capital spending lower
interest rates are needed to balance
derived
savings and desired investment partly
because public and private debt burdens
have risen so far borrowers will
struggle to cope with more expensive
money so monetary policy isn't going
anywhere fast