Welcome to the Climate and Water Outlook for May–July 2019.
For much of Australia, the hot and dry start to the year has continued.
The outlook suggests warmer-than-average conditions are likely to persist, with a drier-than-average
end to autumn likely in the east.
But first, let's look at recent conditions.
In the tropics, the wet season is coming to an end.
Northern Queensland has had two major flooding events.
However, much of the Northern Territory and northern Western Australia has had a
drier-than-average wet season—with the monsoon arriving almost a month late.
And there were nine tropical cyclones in the Australian region this season—that's fewer than average.
Water from the Townsville floods and tropical cyclone Trevor is now flowing through Queensland's
channel country, greening the landscape as Kati Thanda – Lake Eyre starts to fill.
But in the south, many areas remain exceptionally dry, with most still waiting for the autumn break.
In the Mallee region of Victoria, little or no rainfall has been recorded in April
—and less than 25 mm has fallen so far this year.
This means long-term drought continues in many areas.
Total rainfall for the last two years over large parts of eastern and southern Australia
has been well below average.
After Australia's hottest start to the year on record, above-average temperatures have
continued across much of the country.
However, Western Australia did see an unusually early burst of cold weather in late April.
With high temperatures and little rain, lower-layer soil moisture remains very much below average
in key agricultural regions in Victoria and South Australia.
Water storage levels in southeastern Australia continue to fall and are much lower than this time last year.
Total water storage in the northern Murray–Darling Basin is now below 9 per cent, which is
lower than what we saw during the Millennium Drought.
So what's driving our climate right now?
Ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific are close to El Niño thresholds,
but the atmosphere has yet to respond.
Our ENSO Outlook remains at El Niño ALERT, meaning a 70 per cent chance of El Niño forming
—even if only briefly—over the coming months.
Even if El Niño doesn't form, it's likely we will see more high pressure systems
—and hence weaker cold fronts—than normal across southern Australia in May and possibly June.
The rainfall outlook for May shows below-average rainfall is likely in the east,
meaning a late or weak autumn break is expected in the southeast.
The three-month outlook for May–July shows above-average rainfall totals are likely for
much of western, central and northern Australia.
Many key agricultural areas, though, have no strong likelihood of drier- or wetter-than-normal conditions.
Turning to streamflows for April–June: Low flows for this time of year are likely for
more than three-quarters of locations across Australia.
The likely near-median and high flows are scattered mostly in the east.
In terms of temperatures for May–July: Days and nights are very likely to be warmer than average
for most of Australia.
In the south, though, clear nights over the cool season can still bring the risk of frost.
So in summary: A drier-than-normal end to autumn is likely in the east;
temperatures are likely to be warmer than average;
and low streamflows are likely at most locations.
For more details, visit bom.gov.au/climate/ahead.
Our first look at likely conditions for winter will be available on Thursday 16 May.
For the Bureau of Meteorology, I’m Felicity Gamble.