More than 18 months have passed since the start of Putin’s unprovoked, full-scale invasion of
Ukraine. “Kyiv in 3 days” has turned into the biggest war in Europe since WW2. In the second
half of August, the focus has gone back to the Zaporizhia front, where Ukraine is pushing hard
to achieve a decisive breakthrough. We will describe the situation on the battlefield,
Ukraine’s insistence on taking the war to Russia, the death of the ill-fated and
infamous Russian war hero Prigozhin and much more in this update on the war in Ukraine.
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After completing the liberation of Urozhaine by August 16, the main focus of Ukrainian assaults
on the Zaporizhia front was Robotyne and the area around it. The geolocated footage
already showed that battles were occurring in the center of Robotyne. In the following days,
it was reported that the 47th Mechanized Brigade had reached the southeastern outskirts of the
village. On August 23, the fighters of the 47th Brigade planted the Ukrainian flag in Robotyne.
As of early September, Ukraine has fully liberated Robotyne, which it has been fighting for since
the start of the counteroffensive. Russia is still launching counterattacks on the
southern edges of the village, which shows the strategic value of Robotyne to the Russian army.
Zaporizhia oblast consists mostly of open fields. Thus, any elevation is a natural advantage.
Robotyne is on such an elevation and overlooks occupied areas in the East and Southwest. But
so far, Russian attempts to regain control of the village have been in vain. On the contrary,
Ukrainians have expanded their area of control around Robotyne. The AFU has advanced towards
Novopokrovka and Novopokropivka since then. There is also visually confirmed information
that forward Ukrainian units are already fighting in the outskirts of Verbove, which means that
at least some Ukrainian forces have crossed the first Surovikin line west of the village. So far,
we have not seen heavy weapons being deployed by Ukraine in this area, which may indicate that
the breach has not happened yet, and it is merely Ukrainian recon forces operating in the area. But
the presence of Ukrainian forces beyond the first Surovikin line proves that defensive lines are as
strong as the forces defending it. Many analysts have focused only on much-discussed Surovikin
lines, but footage from the liberated areas of Zaporizhia oblast and reports of Ukrainian
servicemen demonstrate that Russians had strong defensive structures north of these lines, too.
Dense minefields, many strongholds and a system of trenches in the open field is a challenging
environment to conduct offensive operations, particularly in the absence of air superiority.
So, Russian defensive structures north of the Surovikin line may have been at least as tough to
cross as the Surovikin line itself. Some analysts even argue that the Ukrainian army has already
passed the densest minefield in the Robotyne sector, and logically speaking, areas south
of it cannot be as densely mined since Russians would need wider mine-free corridors to fall back
if necessary. On August 26, Reuters reported a claim by a Ukrainian commander currently
fighting in the Zaporizhia oblast, who said that he believes that they have broken through
the most difficult line of Russian defenses and that further advance will be less costly.
The Russian command has been sending reinforcements to the Zaporizhia front
to contain the Ukrainian advance. Elements of the 7th, 76th and 108th Air Assault
VDV Divisions have been redeployed from the Kherson and North Luhansk front to this end.
In this period, Ukraine has also gained some ground east of Urozhaine and south of Rivnopil.
It is notable how the Ukrainian success in Robotyne has changed the mood in the West.
At the start of the discussed period, many mainstream Western media outlets had expressed
pessimism about the Ukrainian counteroffensive, but towards the end of August, their rhetoric
became significantly more optimistic. For instance, on August 17, the Washington Post
reported about the assessment of the American intelligence claiming that the Ukrainian Army
would fail to reach Melitopol - the supposed main goal of the Ukrainian counteroffensive,
while on August 24, the Wall Street reported that the Ukrainian commander-in-chief Zaluzhnyi
told the American military officials that the AFU is on the verge of a breakthrough.
The news reports of Western media outlets often rely on anonymous sources in the US government,
and change in the rhetoric, if nothing else, informs about the change of mood
in the American elite regarding the Ukrainian counteroffensive.
According to Forbes, Ukraine sent the 46th Airmobile Brigade and the 82nd Air Assault
Brigade into battle in this period, which means that now almost all of the forces dedicated to the
counteroffensive have taken part in battles in some fashion. If this report is correct,
the next several weeks may prove decisive. Forbes reports that Ukraine’s Leopard 2 losses in the
South have been exaggerated. They claim that the AFU has permanently lost only 5 of its 71 Leopard
2 tanks since the start of the counteroffensive in June. At least 10 more have been damaged,
which are being repaired in Poland and Germany to be sent back to the front. This indicates
that even though nominally all Ukrainian brigades dedicated to the counteroffensive in the South are
already fighting, many main battle tanks are kept in reserve in order to use them later,
if the AFU achieves a decisive breakthrough. They will likely continue trying to advance
along the T0408 highway towards Tokmak and attack towards Verbove and Ocheretuvate to
expand its salient south of Orikhiv. In the Velyka Novosilka section, Ukrainian assaults
have been less regular since the liberation of Urozhaine, but they will probably continue
their attempts to reach the Kermenchyk and Staromlynivka line as an intermediate goal.
On other fronts of the war, the situation has not changed much. On the Kherson front,
raids of Ukrainian groups on the left bank of Dnipro continue,
but they have probably lost their positions near Kozachi Laheri. On the North Luhansk front,
Russia made minor gains near Synkivka and Serebrianski forestry, but Ukraine has stabilized
the situation here after continuous gains by the Russian army in this area in the past few weeks.
On the other hand, Ukraine’s advance around Bakhmut has been negligible too. It was reported
that on August 20, Ukrainian troops gained some ground along the M03 highway towards Berkhivka,
but their advance has largely stopped since the capture of dominant heights near Klischiivka.
In this period, Ukrainians picked up the pace of aerial strikes and saboteur attacks in the Russian
rear, while Russia continued targeting Ukraine’s port infrastructure and other civilian areas.
On August 16 and 23, Shahid drones were launched on Odesa and Mykolaiv oblasts,
damaging some of the port infrastructure. This did not prevent Ukraine from shipping some of
its grain into international markets on August 16 and 27, as Kyiv wanted to demonstrate that
Russia’s permission would not be necessary to ship grain out of the Black Sea. On the other hand,
it is reported that Russia is in talks with Turkey on shipping its grain to international
markets without Ukraine’s participation. Perhaps the most painful Russian air
strike in this period was launched on the drone exposition in Chernihiv on August 19,
which killed 7 people and injured more than 100. On the same day, Ukrainians launched a drone
strike on Soltsy airbase in Novgorod oblast, damaging one or two Tu-22M strategic bombers.
On August 23, Ukraine destroyed Russia's S-400 Triumf modern air defense system in Crimea.
On August 30, Ukraine launched a massive drone attack on 6 Russian regions, destroying two Il-76
transport aircraft and damaging two others at the Pskov airfield. Budanov has already stated the
goal of these attacks: taking the war to Russia to retaliate against strikes on Ukrainian soil.
Land combats will inevitably become less intense with the start of the rainy season,
and we can assume that both sides will launch more aerial attacks on each other.
Kyiv got some excellent news in terms of military aid in the second half of August. On August 15,
the Swedish government announced the 13th military aid package to Ukraine worth 314 million dollars,
which included spare parts and ammunition for CV90 armored combat vehicles and Stridsvagn 122 tanks,
along with trucks, demining equipment and air-to-air Jaktrobot 99 missiles with a range
of 75 km. On August 17, Germany delivered another military aid package including 2
more IRIS-T air defense systems, 10 ground surveillance radar systems, trucks and ammo.
On August 18, the keel was laid for Ukraine's second Ada-class corvette in Istanbul. On August
18, some official information about Western-made jets for Ukraine finally came through. Zelensky
stated that Ukraine pilots started test trials on Swedish Gripen fighter jets. This was followed by
Zelensky’s announcement that the Netherlands will give Ukraine F-16 fighter jets after Ukrainian
pilots complete the training. The Netherlands has 42 F-16s, and the exact number of fighter
jets to be given to the Ukrainian airforce will be declared following the completion of the training.
Denmark also pledged F-16s, giving a more concrete number - 19 jets, 6 of them by the end of 2023,
8 in 2024 and 5 in 2025. Later, Norway promised, at least, 2 F-16s as well. According to the
New York Times, the United States will also train Ukrainian pilots starting in September.
It is a long-anticipated announcement for Ukraine. Ukrainian diplomacy has been working hard to
persuade the West to change its stance on the delivery of fighter jets. One may assume that more
Western countries will follow up with relevant pledges. The training of pilots will take some
time, and it is expected that the Ukrainian air force will be able to start using F-16 some time
in the first half of 2024. F-16s are not going to win the war for Ukraine immediately, but they are
going to give options to the Ukrainian army, which it lacked so far. They will be an instant upgrade
on Soviet-era jets that Ukraine has, since they have a more powerful radar capable of intercepting
targets within the range of up to 150 km. F-16 is compatible with most of western-made missiles,
significantly enhancing the range capability of the Ukrainian army. They will also serve
the purpose of mobile air defense systems due to their capability to target Russian jets with
missiles like air-to-air AIM-120 AMRAAMs. F-16s will go a long way to improving the Ukrainian
army's offensive and defensive capabilities. On August 23, the Finnish prime minister Orpo
announced a military aid package worth 94 million euros. On August 24, the Turkish military industry
corporation Baykar gave a TB-2 Bayraktar drone to Ukraine dedicated to its Independence Day.
Also on that day, Norway promised 140 million dollars worth of energy supplies to Ukraine,
Lithuania pledged a military aid package worth 44 million dollars, Germany delivered Patriot
missiles, 8 drone detection systems, 40 RQ-35 recon drones. On August 29, the United States
announced a 250-million dollar military aid package, which includes AIM-9 air-to-air missiles,
mine clearing equipment, HIMARS munition and Javelin anti-tank guns. The bad news for Ukraine
is that the resolution of the ATACMS matter does not seem any closer. According to the Washington
Post, the Pentagon thinks that the United States is not in a position to spare any ATACMS missiles
for Ukraine, as it may hurt America’s readiness to oppose China, if such a conflict arises.
There are still not many updates regarding foreign military support to Russia. Iran remains the main
military supplier of Russia. There are reports that the Russian army has started using 120-mm
mortar shells produced in Iran. Russia is also increasing the domestic production of
modified Shahed drones in the Alabuga Special Economic Zone of the Republic of Tatarstan.
The Washington Post reported based on the leaked documents from the facility that Russia intends
to build 6k Shahed drones by 2025. According to the Financial Times, the USA has offered Iran to
stop supplying drones to Russia in exchange for mitigation of the sanctions regime,
but it is unlikely that an agreement on this matter is possible in the foreseeable future.
It is notable that according to Zelensky, as of August 19, Russia has launched more than
6500 missiles and 3500 drones on Ukraine since the start of the war. Drones and cruise missiles
will likely remain as important components of the Russian war strategy in Ukraine.
More news of unrest and conflict inside the Russian elite continued flowing in this period.
The Bloomberg article of August 19 claimed that “security hardliners” in the Russian elite are in
favor of dismissing Shoigu and Gerasimov, along with launching another wave of mobilization in
Russia. Rumors of mobilization in Russia have picked up pace in recent weeks. On August 25,
Budanov claimed that Russia is considering mobilizing a further 450k men for the war
in Ukraine. On August 22, finally, some news about Sergey Surovikin came out. Russian media
reported about his dismissal from the commander of the Russian air force. Apparently, the Russian
elite is still convinced that Surovikin’s loyalty belonged to Prigozhin during the March of Justice.
Speaking of Prigozhin. As was widely expected, the imperfect war hero of Russia,
Yevgeny Prigozhin, was finally punished for his coup attempt. On August 23,
Prigozhin and several Wagner commanders, including the neo-nazi Dmitry Utkin, died in a plane crash.
Preliminary information shows that the plane crashed as a result of a bomb explosion on
board. There are very few doubts about who the man behind this explosion is. Prigozhin
was not going to be pardoned for his treason. If there were any doubts about the future of Wagner,
now with the death of Prigozhin and several of the organization’s commanders, there are none.
Earlier in August, NATO chief Stoltenberg’s chief of staff stated that the war could
end with Ukraine agreeing to give up territories in exchange for NATO membership.
Stoltenberg later refuted this claim, but it showed the mood circulating, at least in parts
of the Western elites. Since then Western leaders reiterated their position of unwavering support
to Ukraine and the pledge of F-16s, which will arrive no earlier than early 2024, demonstrate
that the Western support will likely continue in some shape in the foreseeable future. It is good
news for Ukraine, which is increasing the pressure on the Russian defenses on the Zaporizhia front.
Casualties continue mounting for both sides. According to the US officials cited by the
New York Times, Russia has suffered 120k KIA and up to 180k wounded in Ukraine,
while the Ukrainian deaths were close to 70k, with 100k-120k wounded. According to the Oryx blog,
the visually confirmed losses for Russia as of September 2 are 2280 tanks, 4610 vehicles,
249 command posts and communication stations, 908 artillery systems and vehicles, 257 multiple
rocket launchers, 88 aircraft, 104 helicopters, and 294 drones. For Ukraine, these are 631 tanks,
1972 vehicles, 16 command posts and communication stations, 392 artillery systems and vehicles,
50 multiple rocket launchers, 71 aircraft, 34 helicopters, and 177 drones.
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