Over the course of September and October 2021, tensions rose sharply between Iran and Azerbaijan.
Coming less than a year after the war between Azerbaijan and Armenia,
fears are growing of a new showdown in the region.
But what exactly lies behind this sudden downward turn in relations.
Hello and welcome. If you're new to the channel, my name is James Ker-Lindsay and here I take an
informed look at international relations, conflicts and the origins of countries.
There's a tendency to believe that because countries share ethnic,
linguistic or even religious ties, that they'll naturally gravitate towards each other .
But this isn't always the case.
Countries that one might expect to have a natural affinity
can in fact have a rather detached, if not tense, relationship.
One of the most interesting examples of this is the relationship between Iran and Azerbaijan.
Despite being two of only three Shia Muslim majority states in the world,
relations between the neighbours have largely been cool over the past three decades.
However, in September 2021, tensions between Baku and Tehran suddenly rose sharply.
The first indication of emerging problems came with Azerbaijan's decision
to levy charges on Iranian drivers crossing its territory into Armenia.
A key link between Iran and Russia, matters were made worse when Azerbaijan arrested
several Iranians and Azerbaijan's president, Ilham Aliyev, accused Iran of using the link
with Armenia to export drugs into Europe - a charge Tehran has vehemently rejected.
This was then followed by Azerbaijan's decision
to hold military exercises involving Turkey and Pakistan.
In response, Iran launched its own military manoeuvres close to
the Azerbaijan border - the first such exercises in three decades.
Needless to say, all this has prompted growing concern that the two countries
may yet be on course for conflict.
Iran and Azerbaijan lie at the point where the South Caucasus meets the Middle East.
At 1.6 million square kilometers, or 640,000 square miles,
Iran is the 17th largest of the 193 members of the United Nations.
To its north is Azerbaijan.
At 87,000 square kilometers, or 33,500 thousand square miles, it's the 112th largest UN member.
At present, the Iranian population is estimated to be around 84 million;
significantly larger than Azerbaijan's 10 million.
However, the two countries share considerable ties.
While the Azerbaijanis are in fact a Turkic-speaking people, they have a very close
historical, cultural and, especially, religious links to predominantly Farsi-speaking Iran.
As noted, the two countries are two of only three states in the
world - the third being Bahrain - where the majority practice the Shia form of Islam;
as against the Sunni version that's prevalent in the rest of the Muslim world.
But it goes further than this.
Although over 90 percent of Azerbaijan's population is ethnically Azeri,
Azeris make up between 15 to 20 percent of
Iran's population - making them the second largest group after Persians.
Indeed, ethnic Azeris hold senior positions in Iran.
For example, the supreme leader of the country, Ali Khamenei,
is ethnic Azeri on his father's side.
The two countries have a long and rich history.
Indeed, Iran, once more generally known as Persia, is one of the oldest countries in the world.
However, for our purposes the story really begins in the 18th century,
when imperial Russia was expanding and pushing south into Central Asia and the Caucasus.
Following its defeat in the two Russo-Persian Wars, fought in the
first quarter of the 19th century, Iran was forced to cede its lands in the Caucasus
to Moscow's control - territories that now make up Georgia, Armenian and Azerbaijan.
In 1917, following the Russian Revolution, these territories then broke away from Russian control,
establishing the Transcaucasian Democratic Federative Republic.
However, this quickly collapsed and, on the 28 May
1918, Azerbaijan declared independence as the Azerbaijan Democratic Republic.
From the start, this led to tensions with neighbouring Iran, which used the name Azerbaijan
for its northern provinces; thus suggesting the new state claimed these lands for itself.
However, any potential claim would go unrealised
as the new Azerbaijani state's independence would be short-lived.
In 1920, forces the Soviet Red Army seized control of Azerbaijan and it was
incorporated into the newly established Union of Soviet Socialist Republics,
becoming a Soviet socialist republic in its own right in 1936.
Following this, Azerbaijan would remain a part of the Soviet Union for the next half century.
However, on 18 October 1991, as the Soviet Union began its final disintegration, the Republic of
Azerbaijan formally declared its independence, joining the United Nations on 2 March 1992.
At first, it seemed as though relations between Azerbaijan and Iran would be good.
Tehran, seeing an opportunity to win over at Shia brethren,
was one of the first countries to recognise the new state.
However, and perhaps after decades of communist rule,
Azerbaijan appeared to have little interest in fostering close ties with its southern neighbour.
Instead, it looked west,
establishing a close relationship with neighbouring Turkey - a NATO member.
In effect, language, economics and strategic orientation won out over religion.
But the real source of tensions was
the war between Azerbaijan and Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh.
I won't go into a lot of detail on this as I've covered it in other videos,
but this centred on a province of Azerbaijan that was predominantly inhabited by ethnic Armenians.
As the Soviet Union broke apart, it sought to unite with Armenia,
sparking a major war that left the region and many surrounding areas under Armenian control.
Importantly, Iran which also shares a border with Armenia, took a neutral position in the conflict.
Seeing this as a fundamental betrayal, relations between Baku and Tehran worsened dramatically.
That said, the situation began to improve under the Aliyev administrations.
To this end, over the past 20 years or so the two countries have had, while not a particularly
close and friendly relationship, one that's nevertheless been cordial, stable and workable.
So, what exactly has sparked this sudden rise in tensions?
In essence, what we're seeing now appears to be directly related to 2020 Armenia- Azerbaijan war
which saw Azerbaijan retake control of most of the territories lost to Armenia in the 1990s.
Specifically, this seems to have changed the regional
geopolitical landscape in three important ways.
First of all, it seems to have shifted the pattern of relations
at a bilateral level between Azerbaijan and Iran.
There's little doubt that Azerbaijan's victory over Armenia
has given Baku a new sense of confidence.
The imposition of the fees is obviously one element of this.
So too are open allegations against Iran.
But it will also run deeper than this.
Azerbaijan's victory will naturally have raised concern
that its new assertiveness may now find new outlets.
Even at the time of the Nagorno-Karabakh War,
there were fears in the Azerbaijani victory could lead to a rise in nationalist sentiment.
And indeed the scale of the victory over Armenia has clearly seen a rise in such feelings.
Importantly, it also appears to have fuelled pro-Azerbaijani sentiment amongst ethnic Azeris
in Iran, especially as many felt that Tehran should have supported Azerbaijan in the war.
All this will have made Tehran nervous.
The second factor concerns Azerbaijan's relationship with Turkey and Pakistan;
two other of Iran's neighbours.
For the most part, relations between Tehran and Ankara have tended to be relatively good.
However, there's no doubt that Iran will be growing increasingly concerned
about the growing Turkish influence in Azerbaijan.
While relations between Baku and Ankara have been strong since Azerbaijan gained its independence,
Turkey played an instrumental role in helping Azerbaijan defeat Armenia.
Similarly, Tehran will also be nervous about the involvement
of Pakistan - its eastern neighbour - in the exercises.
While at one point relations between the two countries were excellent,
and Iran was in fact the first country to recognise Pakistan when it became independent,
these ties deteriorated after the Iranian Revolution, in 1979.
And although relations between the two countries have recently improved,
especially in terms of economic cooperation, mistrust continues.
Iran will no doubt feel that Pakistan - a declared nuclear power - is also on
the rise now, especially given the Taliban's takeover in Afghanistan,
which has been explicitly supported by Islamabad.
And the fact that Turkey and Pakistan took part in the military exercises in
Azerbaijan - exercises that were called "Three Brothers 2021" - will only have compounded
the sense in Tehran that the geostrategic playing field is changing on its borders.
But, perhaps most importantly, the 2020 War has also cemented
the increasingly close relationship between Azerbaijan and Iran's arch enemy, Israel.
In truth, these ties are nothing new.
The relationship has been steadily developing since Azerbaijan's independence.
Indeed, in April 1992 the two countries established diplomatic relations,
making Azerbaijan one of the relatively few muslim majority states at the time
to recognise the Jewish state.
Indeed, this was one of the first factors
that led to a deterioration of relations between Baku and Tehran.
Since then, the links between Azerbaijan and Israel have grown steadily stronger.
Perhaps most importantly the countries have established close defence cooperation.
Israel supplied many of the sophisticated weaponry,
including drones, used in the November 2020 War.
And it's this growing cooperation that's now worrying Tehran more than anything else.
As Iran sees it, the relationship will give Israel a strategic foothold on its northern border.
Having once been a part of Iran, and as two of only three countries that are predominantly
Shia Muslim, Azerbaijan and Iran have a close historical and cultural relationship.
However, over the past 30 years, since Azerbaijan gained its independence, relations have never
been as close politically, economically and strategically as some might have perhaps expected.
Still, the sudden and intense deterioration in relation between Baku and Tehran
has nevertheless come as a surprise to many observers.
But, as shown, behind it lies a fundamental change in geopolitics
following Azerbaijan's victory over Armenia in the November 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War.
While the Baku-Tehran power dynamic has clearly shifted, it goes further than this.
Tehran will also be growing increasingly nervous about Turkish, Pakistani and,
even more importantly, Israeli cooperation with Azerbaijan.
The question is whether these tensions we have seen in recent months
may yet lead to a direct confrontation between these two Shia Muslim nations.
I hope you found that useful. If so, here are some more videos that you might find interesting.
Thanks so much for watching and see you in the next video.