Arsene Wenger took over as Arsenal’s manager on October 1 st 1996, taking official charge
of his first match 11 days later against Blackburn Rovers.
Since then, the French manager has won three Premier League titles, but none
since the incredible 2003/04 season.
Criticism of Wenger revolves largely around the sense that
the club should look to refresh, that he has been in charge for too long and has become
stale.
The style of football that brought the Invincibles season and other silverware has
been criticised too, similarly for failing to change.
But have Arsenal declined under Wenger?
Arsenal’s winning and losing record under Wenger are fairly consistent.
Obviously, 2003/04 marked a highpoint, matched in 2001/02, but
the number of games won varies between 19 and 26 (achieved twice) with an average of 22.
In league terms, this means a difference between winning 50% of your games and nearly
70%, but Wenger has never dropped below 50% or exceeded 70%, which in Premier League
terms, especially over such a long period, is consistent.
There is greater deviation in games lost, but the average number across Wenger’s tenure,
seven, has been the case in four of the last five seasons.
We’ve included the 1996/97 season even though Wenger was not in charge for all
of it, because starting from his first full season
seems arbitrary when he only missed eight league games of ‘96/97.
Last season, Arsenal scored their highest number of goals since 2009/10 and while that
season and three others have produced more, the trend in the Gunners’ scoring is also
fairly even.
Offensively, Arsenal have seen a general decline in the number of chances they are creating
in the last ten seasons but this has not lead to a matching decline in goals.
While 2016/17 saw the second fewest chances created in the
last ten seasons, it saw the second most goals scored for the Gunners.
Similarly, while between 2007/08 and 2011/12 every season saw over 500 chances created,
with an average of 507, an average of 72 goals per season were scored.
From 2012/13 to 2016/17, while the average number of chances created dropped to 449
over that period, the average number of goals scored dropped by only 1.4 to 70.6.
The percentage of chances yielding goals is actually
fairly stable, barring a low point in 2015/16 and a high point last season.
Arsenal have also taken a declining number of shots over this period, but done more with them.
The percentage of shots on target trends upwards, albeit only a little, while the
Gunners’ shot conversion rate is consistently around 10.5%, which is an expected average
for any team over a long period, or better.
Looking at some key defensive metrics for the last ten seasons, we can see that 2013/14
and 2015/16 saw high numbers of clean sheets,
nearly half of the league’s games in both seasons, but that otherwise, between 13 and
14 clean sheets is regular for the Gunners.
There has been an upwards trend in shots faced and shots on target faced, though, even in
seasons with higher numbers of clean sheets.
However, the percentage of shots faced that are on target only jumped up last season.
Having said that, the number of shots caused by errors describes a bell curve, rising from
2010/11 to a high point in 2012/13, and then coming back down again.
In other words, while Arsenal’s defence are generally giving up
more shots, it’s less down to individual errors than, probably, a systematic issue.
In summary, then, it’s hard to see that Arsenal are getting markedly worse and, indeed,
while their defence might be slightly weaker over time, that doesn’t necessarily translate into
fewer clean sheets or more lost games.
Perhaps the answer lies in a lack of improvement, except last season, when shot conversion
rate and goals scored both showed marked improvements.
When the rest of the league’s top five or six contenders have changed, adapted,
and improved, Arsenal have not shown a similar jump.
This is partly because those other sides are better but also, perhaps, because
Arsene Wenger has shown an unwillingness to adapt.