Starting in 1952,
The New Hampshire Primary has been a significant part
of the Democratic and Republican nomination process.
While Iowa has held the title as ‘1st in the nation’ caucus since 1972,
New Hampshire has been the ‘first in the nation primary’ even longer.
Often hailed for its voters stark independence,
NH has been the site of serious intra party drama during many Presidential Primary Cycles.
Bill and Hillary Clinton, John McCain, and Ronald Reagan are some of the many ‘comeback’
kids,
for whom New Hampshire breathed life into threatened campaigns.
At the right moment after poor Iowa performances,
the unpredictable voters of New Hampshire
gave them all better than expected results.
But the New Hampshire Primary has also brought doom and dread
to several establishment candidacies.
Most notably, the political careers of two sitting Presidents
were effectively ended after NH Primary voters cast ballots.
In 1952,
Harry Truman had been in the White House since FDR’s death in 1945.
He had even survived what many considered
certain political defeat at the hands of Republican challenger
Thomas E.Dewey in 1949.
Nonetheless, like almost every President,
his second term was far more difficult than his first.
Foremost among his issues was a Korean War
dragging on longer than expected,
and accusations from Senator McCarthy
that his State Department was harboring communists.
Furthermore, Tennessee Senator Estes “Kefauver”
was leading Senate investigations into Internal Revenue Bureau corruption.
As Truman’s image as a competent and assiduous executive was being eroded,
it was Senator Kefauver who decided to challenge him
in the 1952 Democratic Primary.
This challenge started with the New Hampshire Primary,
where “Kefauver” defeated Truman
19,800 votes to 15,927.
The populist leader was on the rise,
and Truman soon announced that he would not continue to seek the nomination.
Truman may have already been on the decline when New Hampshire voted,
but his defeat there was the last time he would ever be on a ballot.
[Truman] I shall not be a candidate for reelection
I do not feel that it is my duty
to spend another four years in the white house
[Will] In an eerily similar occured situation in 1968,
when anti-war Senator Eugene McCarthy,
through energy and organization,
well outperformed expectations in New Hampshire
against President Lyndon Johnson.
LBJ had taken the reigns of government after
President Kennedy’s 1963 assassination.
Johnson’s 49% to 42% defeat of McCarthy was hardly
something to be proud of;
the party was deeply divided over the continuation of the Vietnam War,
a war which Johnson started.
Despite his legislative achievements,
LBJ was bound to Vietnam.
The sloppily organized close-call in New Hampshire,
coupled with his poor health,
caused President Johnson to drop.
[LBJ] I shall not seek
and I will not accept
the nomination of my party
for another term as your President.
[Will] Like Iowa with their caucuses,
New Hampshire state law requires
that it be the ‘first in the nation primary’,
a narrative which both parties have followed now for a century,
since New Hampshire’s first primary in 1916.
But consider this,
in 1952 when Truman lost in New Hampshire to Senator Kefauver,
the vote total between the two was 35,727.
This was roughly 6 percent of the 1950 New Hampshire population,
and .02% of the American population.
19,800 Kefauver votes in a tiny northeastern state
were enough to sway the sitting President to throw in the towel.
This trend has continued into the modern era,
giving New Hampshire super inflated influence.
2008 had a particularly large turnout for both Republicans and Democrats
in New Hampshire of about 526,000,
still only .18 percent of the 300 million people in the USA.
This isn’t healthy for our democracy.
Every 4 years, political candidates and operatives
invade a geographically miniscule,
demographically unrepresentative state to pander for months on end, while spending millions
on ads.
I understand the historical conflict between large and small states
dating all the way back to the constitutional convention,
but why must we constantly make inherently undemocratic rules
in order to appease rural communities?
Because of their size,
Iowa and New Hampshire give an advantage
to underdog and underfunded candidates,
no one would deny that,
but any small state could offer this.
The earnest decision making of Iowans and New Hampshiremen is appreciated,
but to be expected.
It’s nice that we’ve moved on from the days where Party Officials
picked delegates at state conventions or smoke-filled backrooms,
the fact that any member of either party,
and even some independents,
can participate in caucuses or primaries in all 50 states is a wonderful thing.
But 2020 should be the year when we evolve once more.
It’s time to have other states start the nomination process.
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