>> Stephen: HEY!
WELCOME BACK, EVERYBODY.
JOINING ME NOW ARE THE HOSTS OF SHOWTIME'S POLITICAL DOCUSERIES,
"THE CIRCUS."
PLEASE WELCOME JOHN HEILEMANN, MARK McKINNON, AND JENNIFER
PALMIERI, EVERYBODY!
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>> Stephen: WELCOME, Y'ALL.
>> THANK YOU.
>> Stephen: JENNIFER, LOVELY TO HAVE YOU ON.
>> GREAT TO BE HERE.
>> Stephen: LISTEN, YOU'RE ALL PEOPLE WHO HAVE WORKED FOR
PRESIDENTS, REPORTED ON PRESIDENTS.
RUSSIA, THIS INVASION OF UKRAINE IS A BIG TEST FOR THE PRESIDENT,
ESPECIALLY JUST AFTER THEIR FIRST YEAR STARTED HERE.
THIS FEELS A LITTLE BIT LIKE THE OLD DAYS WHEN I WAS A KID AND
BRESH 97 WOULD SEND OUT ANDRE GRAMEKO TO TALK ABOUT WHICHEVER
WAY THE RUSSIAN BEAR WAS POKING THE EAGLE THIS TIME.
A NEW PRESIDENT WOULD ALWAYS BE TESTED TO SEE WHAT THEIR
REACTION IS TO SOVIET AGGRESSION.
DOES THIS HAVE AN ECHO FOR YOU?
>> I WAS THINKING BACK WHEN WE WERE ON YOUR SHOW BEFORE, THE
FIRST TIME WE WERE ON, WE ANNOUNCED THE RESULTS WHEN
PRESIDENT TRUMP BECAME PRESIDENT.
>> Stephen: I REMEMBER.
I TRIED TO FORGET IT, BUT I-- >> I KNOW.
THE LAST TIME WAS THE WEEK OF THE INSURRECTION.
NOW, THIS WEEK WE'RE ON WHEN UKRAINE IS INVADED.
NEXT TIME YOU WANT TO CALL US...
BUT, YES, THIS IS THE BIGGEST TEST, OBVIOUSLY, OF BIDEN'S
PRESIDENCY.
AND SOME WOULD ARGUE THIS IS WHAT HE'S BUILT FOR, GIVEN HIS
BACKGROUND AS AN INTERNATIONALIST, AS SOMEBODY
WHO BUILDS ALLIANCES.
I MEAN, THE THING THAT'S INTERESTING TO THINK ABOUT THE
SCENARIO RIGHT NOW IS WHAT WOULD BE HAPPENING IF PRESIDENT TRUMP
WAS PRESIDENT RIGHT NOW WHO IS SUCH A PUTIN FAN.
WE WOULD PROBABLY WITH THE OCCUPATION FORCE S.
>> Stephen: WHAT DO YOU THINK OF THE CASE HE'S MADE SO FAR.
BIDEN HAS ADDRESSED THE COUNTRY A COUPLE OF TIMES, AND HE PUT IN
A COUPLE OF TRANCHES OF SANCTIONS AND THERE ARE BIGGER
ONES COMING DOWN THE PIKE.
HE HAS TO MAKE THE CASE TO THE AMERICAN PEOPLE, EVEN THOUGH
WE'RE NOT GOING TO SEND IN TROOPS, EVEN THOUGH WE'RE NOT
GOING TO FIRE BULLETS, UKRAINE MATTERS.
>> AS WE SIT REAR RIGHT NOW-- FIRST OF ALL, THE INVASION HAS
ALREADY STARTED.
THE FULL SCALE INVASION SEEMS IMMINENT.
IF VLADIMIR PUTIN IS IN KYIV THE NEXT WEEK, YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT
HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS OF DEAD.
YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT THE LARGEST LAND WAR IN EUROPE SINCE WORLD
WAR II.
IT'S LIKE A WORLD HISTORICAL EVENT.
AND I WOULD SAY THAT UP UNTIL THIS MOMENT, PEOPLE THINK BIDEN
HAS DONE A PRETTY GOOD JOB IN THE CONTEXT OF DEALING WITH
SOMEONE WHO IS NOT A MAD MAN BUT SOMEONE WHO IS NOT AMENABLE TO
NORMAL FORMS OF DIPLOMATIC PRESSURE AND PERSUASION.
NOBODY IN AMERICA RIGHT NOW WANTS THERE TO BE AMERICAN
TROOPS THERE.
THE NOTION THAT SANCTIONS ARE THE BEST TOOL WE HAVE AND WE'RE
GOING TO KEEP RATCHETING THEM UP.
HOW DO YOU KEEP THE ALLIES TOGETHER?
HE'S DONE THAT SO FAR.
NATO HAS BEEN STEADFAST.
HE'S KEPT THAT UNITY OF PURPOSE THAT PUTIN DOUBTED.
>> JEN, LET'S TALK ABOUT THE GIVE THE MOUSE A COOKIE ASPECT
OF THIS.
YOU YOU WERE WORKING AT THE WHITE HOUSE WHEN PUTIN SEIZED
CRIMEA, WITHOUT LOSING A MAN, BY THE WAY.
IT SWEPT OVER CRIMEA.
WHAT IS IT LIKE INTERNALLY IN THE WHITE HOUSE DEAL WITH PUTIN
WHEN HE'S ON A WAR FOOTING.
>> THAT WAS FEBRUARY OF 2014, TO SORT OF PLACE EVERYONE.
AND IT WAS STUNNING AND SURREAL BECAUSE YOU THINK-- YOU KNOW, I
THINK AT THE TIME WE PROBABLY, IN RETROSPECT, UNDERESTIMATED
WHAT PUTIN'S AMBITIONS REALLY WERE.
BECAUSE WE THOUGHT HE WAS ACTING AS A RATIONAL BEING.
AND YOU JUST DID NOT-- WE DID NOT THINK HE WOULD REALLY DO
THIS.
IS HE REALLY GOING TO BE-- IT IS HE REALLY GOING TO ANNEX A
COUNTRY FOR THE FIRST TIME, AN INDEPENDENT COUNTRY, FOR THE
FIRST TIME SINCE WORLD WAR II?
LIKE, WILL HE REALLY BE THAT IRRATIONAL?
, AND I ALSO REMEMBER AT THE TIME, IT'S AFGHANISTAN, IT'S
SYRIA, ALL THESE OTHER THINGS HAPPENING IN FOREIGN POLICY.
SO I DON'T THINK THAT WE APPRECIATED WHAT HE WAS WILLING
TO DO.
THEN IN THE INTERVENING EIGHT YEARS, HE'S GOTTEN STRONGER,
CONSOLIDATED HIS POWER, HIS MILITARY IS STRONGER.
AND JUST ALL THAT MORE DANGEROUS.
BUT, YOU KNOW, IN THAT MOMENT, WHEN YOU'RE IN THE WHITE HOUSE,
YOU'RE HAVING TO DECIDE, I DON'T WANT TO MISREAD THIS.
IS THIS-- IS THIS HIM TRYING TO REGAIN THE SOVIET UNION?
OR IS THIS A SMALL ANNEXATION OF A COUNTRY THAT AMERICA DOESN'T
REALLY CARE ABOUT?
AND, YOU KNOW, GETTING THAT BALANCE RIGHT HUNDREDS OF
THOUSANDS OF LIVES ARE IN THE-- ARE AT STAKE?
>> Stephen: WE HAVE TO TAKE'S BREAK, BUT WHEN WE COME BACK I
WILL ASK THESE SMART FOLKS WHY SO MANY REPUBLICANS ARE PULLING
FOR PUTIN?
STICK AROUND.
( CHEERS AND APPLAUSE ).
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