NEIL:
ALL RIGHT, TAKE A LOOK AT WHAT'S
HAPPENING IN THE LOWER RIGHT
PORTION OF YOUR SCREEN, A
SELLOFF GOING ON.
THAT KIND OF THING CONTINUES,
AND MY NEXT GUEST WORRIES ABOUT
SOLUTIONS THAT COME OUT OF OUR
NATION'S CAPITAL BECAUSE
INVARIABLY WHEN STOCKS GO
DOWN -- NOT SO MUCH WHEN THEY GO
UP -- THE GOVERNMENT TRIES TO
GET INVOLVED AND E TRIES TO HEAL
THE PROCESS.
IT IS A WELL-INTENDED SORT OF
PATTERN ON THE PART OF
WASHINGTON, AND HE WRITES VERY
WELL ABOUT IT IN DISCRIMINATION
AND DISPARITIES OUT TOMORROW.
ITS NOTED AUTHOR, WHO WE'VE HAD
ON ONCE OR TWICE ON THIS SHOW,
THOMAS SOWELL.
THOMAS, VERY GOOD TO HAVE YOU.
THANK YOU FOR TAKING THE TIME.
>> THANK YOU FOR HAVING ME.
NEIL: LET'S GO FIRST, IF YOU
DON'T MIND, I DO WANT TO ATTACK
SOME OF THESE NEWS DEVELOPMENTS,
THE BIG SELLOFF GOING ON ON WALL
STREET.
AND IT COULD BE SHORT-LIVED, BUT
DAY'S END IT COULD BE GONE, BUT
INVARIABLY WE HAVE SEEN
WASHINGTON INTERVENE WHEN IT
SEEMS TO THINK THAT PEOPLE HAVE
BEEN POORLY TREATED OR UNFAIRLY
TREATED.
IT'S A BIG THEME IN YOUR BOOK.
NOT THE MARKET PART, BUT ADVISE
VISE PEOPLE ON WHAT HAPPENS WHEN
THEY OWN STOCK AND WHY THE
GOVERNMENT MIGHT NOT WANT TO DO
THAT.
>> WELL, YOU KNOW, KARL MARX OF
ALL PEOPLE ONCE SAID THAT THE
CRACK-BRAINED MEDDLING BY THE
AUTHORITIES CAN MAKE ANY CRISIS
WORSE.
SO IT'S NOT JUST PEOPLE ON THE
RIGHT WHO CRITICIZE GOVERNMENT
INTERVENTION OF THE KIND THAT
THEY HAVE.
I'VE NEVER TRIED TO PREDICT THE
STOCK MARKET, THANK HEAVENS --
[LAUGHTER]
NEIL: YOU'RE A WISE MAN.
YOU'RE A VERY WISE MAN.
YOU KNOW, THOMAS, ONE OF THE
THINGS WE TALK ABOUT THE
GOVERNMENT'S ROLE HERE, THE
PRESIDENT, AS YOU KNOW, IS
TRYING TO EXACT CONCESSIONS FROM
THOSE WHO HE SAYS HAVE BEEN
DUMPING STEEL AND ALUMINUM ON
OUR SHORES, AND THEY'RE
RESPONDING IN KIND NOW
THREATENING TIT FOR TAT ACTION
THAT COULD GO GLOBAL.
I KNOW YOU HAVE CALLED THESE NOT
SO MUCH TARIFFS, BUT TRADE-OFFS
BACK AND FORTH.
DO YOU WORRY THAT THIS THING
GOES OUT OF CONTROL?
>> OH, ABSOLUTELY.
I HAPPEN TO BELIEVE THAT THE
SMOOT-HOLLY TARIFFS OF 1930 HAD
A LOT MORE TO DO WITH THE GREAT
DEPRESSION THAN THE STOCK
MARKET.
UNEMPLOYMENT WAS NOWHERE NEAR AS
LOW THE FIRST YEAR AFTER THE
STOCK MARKET AS IT WAS IN THE
FIRST FIVE MONTHS AFTER THE,
THOSE TARIFFS WENT IN.
AND IT'S LIKE MANY KINDS OF
WARS, IT IS VERY EASY TO START
THOSE KINDS OF WARS, IT IS VERY
HARD TO STOP THEM.
BECAUSE THEY GET GROWN
COMPLETELY OUT OF CONTROL.
THE IDEA THAT WE HAVE TO HAVE A
BUDGET SURPLUS, THAT THAT'S
BETTER THAN A DEFICIT, IS
COMPLETELY CON TOWER TO --
CONTRARY TO WHAT ALL THE
EVIDENCE SHOWS.
DURING THE GREAT DEPRESSION IN
THE 1930s, WE HAD TRADE
SURPLUSES.
IT DIDN'T DO US A BIT OF GOOD.
DURING THE PROSPERITY OF THE
1990s, WE HAD TRADE DEFICITS
THAT DIDN'T HURT THE PROSPERITY
AT ALL.
THIS IS A NUMBER THAT THERE'S
LESS TO IT THAN MEETS THE EYE.
NEIL: ALL RIGHT.
WELL, THAT WOULD BE NEWS TO THE
PRESIDENT WHO'S MADE IT A CAUSE
IS CELEB.
DO YOU THINK IT'S A MISTAKE THAT
HE FOCUSES SO MUCH ON --
>> OH, ABSOLUTELY.
NEIL: GO AHEAD.
>> CONCEIVABLY, A CATASTROPHIC
MISTAKE DEPENDS ON HOW FAR HE
WANTS TO PUSH IT IN DEFINES OF
WHAT MORE -- DEFIANCE OF WHAT
MORE EXPERIENCED PEOPLE AROUND
HIM MAY BE TELLING HIM.
NEIL: YOU KNOW, THE REASON WHY I
KEPT ECHOING THAT THEME WITH
HIM, I'VE BEEN READING A LOT OF
THE EUROPEAN PRESS, THE ENGLISH
VERSIONS THAT I GET, AND A LOT
OF THEM HAVE BEEN SAYING ALMOST
TO A PUBLICATION THE PRESIDENT
IS UNLEASHING SOMETHING HE MIGHT
REGRET.
YOU SEEM TO AGREE.
>> YOU CAN'T, YOU CAN'T CONTROL
IT.
NEIL: YEAH.
>> WHEN YOU START IT, AND YOU
CAN'T STOP IT.
AND THAT'S THE BAD PART.
IF THIS IS SOMETHING HE COULD
PUT IN AND AFTER A MONTH OR TWO
HE SEES IT'S NOT WORKING, HE CAN
STOP IT.
NO, BY THAT TIME IT'S ACQUIRED A
LIFE OF ITS OWN.
OTHER COUNTRIES WILL ALREADY BE
TAKING RETALIATORY MEASURES, AND
THE NET RESULT IS ALL THE
COUNTRIES PUT TOGETHER ARE GOING
TO LOSE BECAUSE IT'LL CUT DOWN
THE TOTAL VOLUME OF
INTERNATIONAL TRADE AS THEY DID
IN THE 1930s.
NEIL: YOU KNOW, I ALWAYS SEE
GOVERNMENT AS SORT OF LIKE THIS
GIANT, WELL-INTENDED BEAST, AND
I DON'T MEAN TO DISPARAGE IT,
BUT YOU DO IT FAR MORE
ELOQUENTLY THAN I DO, WHERE IT
TRIES TO CORRECT ILLS THAT IT
SEES.
SOME VERY OBVIOUS, SOME MAYBE
NOT SO OBVIOUS.
BUT THE GOING AGAINST THE GRAIN
OF COMMON SENSE, YOU MENTION
EARLY IN YOUR BOOK AND I'M
QUOTING HERE, IN NATURE AS IN
HUMAN ENDEAVORS, THERE CAN BE
MULTIPLE PREREQUISITES FOR
VARIOUS NATURAL PHENOMENON.
AND THESE MULTIPLE PREREQUISITES
CAN LIKEWISE LEAD TO VERY SKEWED
DISTRIBUTIONS OF OUTCOMES.
IN OTHER WORDS, WHAT WE TRY TO
FIX, WE CREATE A BIGGER FIX,
RIGHT?
>> THERE IS THAT, BUT THERE'S
THIS INVINCIBLE FALLACY THAT IN
THE ABSENCE OF SOME SPECIAL
PROBLEMS, PEOPLE WOULD HAVE
PRETTY MUCH THE SAME KINDS OF
ECONOMIC AND OTHER ACHIEVEMENTS.
AND THAT DEFIES THOUSANDS OF
YEARS OF HISTORY.
THERE ARE SO MANY FACTORS
INVOLVED THAT FOR ALL THOSE
FACTORS TO COME TOGETHER THE
SAME ONE GROUP IS FOR ANOTHER IS
VIRTUALLY IMPOSSIBLE.
AND YOU CAN COMPARE ANY KIND OF
GROUPS FROM AROUND THE WORLD.
AND I SOMETIMES THINK, YOU KNOW,
IF BLACK AND WHITE AMERICANS