Narrator: Wheat is one of the most
important things we eat.
It's turned into staple foods
that make up one-fifth of all calories
consumed in the world.
Most of Northern Africa and the Middle East
depend on cheap wheat imported from Ukraine.
But supplies of the grain
were cut off after Russia invaded.
Some Ukrainian farmers
couldn't plant seeds this spring.
Narrator: And over 4.5 million tons of wheat
are stuck at the ports,
unable to leave the country.
Narrator: But the supply chain
that moves wheat globally was fragile
even before the war.
David: This is about the poorest of the poor
around the world,
who are on the brink of starvation
as we speak.
Narrator: Drought, heat waves, and floods
have ravaged crops from the US to India
and driven prices to all-time highs.
In some places, people can't afford them,
like here in Lebanon,
which imports nearly all of its grain
and was already facing economic meltdown.
Narrator: What does the sudden price hike
mean for countries
that were already struggling
to provide basic needs?
And what can be done to get food
where it's needed most?
We travel around the world
to unpack the big business of wheat.
The same family has run this bakery in Lebanon
for 60 years.
They make traditional bread
and a special loaf used in services
at the local church.
Owner Elias Hanna A'ad
has been struggling to buy wheat for months,
and he had to raise prices.
Narrator: Lebanon, like most of the Middle East
and North Africa,
relies heavily on wheat
from Ukraine and Russia.
Together, the two countries account
for nearly 30% of the world's wheat exports.
And they have been big players in the industry
for a long time.
When Ukraine was a part of the Soviet Union,
the Communist Party
consolidated Ukrainian wheat farms
into big, state-run operations.
Moscow controlled them and set prices.
Since the fall of the USSR,
wheat from Ukraine has remained
some of the cheapest on the market.
And Russia has weaponized wheat before.
In the 1930s,
Stalin engineered famine in Ukraine
by confiscating wheat.
And since the invasion
in February 2022,
there have been reports
of Russian ships loading up
and stealing Ukrainian silos.
On the ground,
Russian troops interrupted the planting season.
Narrator: Bat Batov is a 33-year
veteran farmer in Borodyanka.
He couldn't plant any spring wheat.
For one, fertilizer was hard to get.
Narrator: Russian troops occupied this area.
They started fires in the farm's building
and left the Russian war symbol for victory.
Narrator: The Russian soldiers
have since left.
But Bat estimates over $400,000 in damages
to equipment alone.
Narrator: By some estimates,
Ukrainian farmers planted two-thirds
of their wheat acreage,
better than initial predictions.
Narrator: But the biggest problem
is getting wheat out of the country.
Ukraine exports a lot
of its wheat by sea.
Normally, the ports are bustling.
Giant silos store wheat year-round.
Then, a loader pours grain
into the hold of cargo ships
bound for Egypt, Libya, and Lebanon.
But as of June 15,
Russia controlled the ports
of Mariupol, Berdiansk, and Kherson.
It had also severely damaged
the ports in Mykolaiv
and blocked the three ports in Odessa.
The navies on both sides of the conflict
have reportedly placed mines in the Black Sea.
With maritime trade shuttered,
over 20 million tons of grain
are stuck in Ukraine,
enough to feed the world's least-developed nations for a year.
Experts warn if the ports aren't cleared,
the supply constraints could get worse.
Over in Russia,
production is better,
but the country still
has a smaller crop than in 2021.
President Vladimir Putin
also implemented a ban
halting most wheat exports
to ex-Soviet countries.
But the global wheat crisis
started well before the Russian invasion.
Ahead of the Ukraine conflict,
the world was really tight
on wheat supplies going into that.
Narrator: The world's top producers
are facing issues beyond our control.
China had warned of its worst
winter wheat crop in history
due to floods.
India's experiencing unprecedented heat waves.
Severe drought is starving wheat crops
in the United States, Canada, and France,
the EU's biggest supplier.
Pakistan faced droughts
and heat waves of its own.
Will: This had been a multi-year setup,
and then you're just getting
hit after hit of less supply.
Narrator: But we aren't necessarily
destined for the worst-case scenario
of widespread famine.
While there is a wheat shortage ...
Right now, there's enough to go around.
It's just going to be very expensive.
So how do you deal with that?
Narrator: Since 20% of all human calories
come from wheat,
everyone is feeling the effects
of these soaring costs.
Vulnerable economies in this region
are already reeling
from hikes in bread prices.
Lebanon usually gets about three-quarters
of its wheat from Ukraine and Russia,
but now supplies are dwindling.
Normally, grain arrives here at the Port of Beirut.
Except the country
is still recovering
from a massive explosion
that ripped through this area in 2020.
It killed hundreds and destroyed grain silos.
These hollow shells are all that remain.
And grains scattered by the blast
have sprouted around the port.
But now the country
is running out of wheat.
Even before the war in Ukraine,
decades of corruption
left Lebanon with runaway inflation
and a barely-functioning government.
Fed up and underfed,
citizens have taken to the streets to protest.
And as conditions worsen,
people are turning to the black market
to buy cheaper bread.
The government has shut down many mills.
Baraka Mills is quiet,
its machines shut off.
Narrator: Elias hasn't been able
to purchase as much flour.
Narrator: The government used to
subsidize this flour,
but now it only helps pay for flour
used in traditional pita.
And that's not what this bakery sells.
Narrator: Globally, record wheat prices
are expected to last
at least into 2023,
with supplies potentially
taking years to recover.
Because you're not about
to grow your way out of it
with one good season of crops.
Narrator: This means we could be facing
a dire food crisis,
potentially the worst since World War II.
The World Food Programme
estimates as many as 50 million people
are at risk of famine.
The poorest of the poor around the world
who are on the brink of starvation
as we speak.
So I ask President Putin,
if you have any heart at all,
please open these ports.
Narrator: Especially in the Middle East
and North Africa,
where food security is linked
with social stability.
Egypt, the world's biggest importer of wheat,
said it might raise the price
of subsidized bread.
That price hasn't changed
in nearly 40 years,
and the government attributes it
with helping keep the country stable.
In response to rising prices,
eight countries have banned wheat exports,
including India and Russia.
Narrator: Those protectionist measures,
along with climate-driven drops in production,
are further tightening prices globally.
So what can be done about the looming crisis?
Well, first, we have to move
the Ukrainian wheat.
The only option is to get
the grain out of Ukraine
through the Black Sea ports.
They have to be opened.
That's the only option.
Narrator: The UN is in talks with Moscow
to free up ports.
And on May 25,
Russia opened Mariupol,
clearing a 2-mile-wide
humanitarian corridor
for foreign-flagged ships.
The UN is also working
on opening railways
and roads within Ukraine to move grain.
Some experts say countries
need to roll back protectionist measures.
But Sharma says in order to do that,
richer countries have to step up.
Narrator: China's bumper harvest
is still looking strong.
And the US has plenty of wheat.
We're just the most expensive place to get it from.
Narrator: The US Department of Agriculture
is now working with international organizations
to subsidize expensive flour
and redirect it
to the most vulnerable countries.
And countries could consider drought-resistant wheat,
like the kind Argentina has approved.
And putting more emphasis
on other crops
could ease the current shortage.
In Africa, flour can be made from cassava,
a type of sweet potato.
China is already growing more corn.
And Ukrainian farmers
who missed the season for wheat
are planting extra sunflower,
and corn as well.
But in the face of a changing climate
and global unrest,
the teetering wheat industry
could foreshadow just how fragile
our food system really is.