to ethiopia where prime minister abi
ahmed has announced a quote final
military operation against the defiant
tigray province in coming days
the federal government has carried out
what it called surgical airstrikes on
the tigray capital of mikhail
and has denied reports of casualties
ethiopian leaders have so far resisted
international pressure for mediation
with the tigray rebel forces but fallout
from the two-week conflict has the
potential to destabilize the entire
region
and has already kicked off humanitarian
crises
these are the wary faces of a conflict
that is spilling out beyond ethiopia's
borders
aid groups say 25 000 people have now
fled to sudan since fighting broke out
half of them are children some may not
see their fathers or husbands again
we came with the clothes on our backs i
don't know where my husband is i've been
looking for him for five days i don't
know where he is
i don't know what happened there was
heavy fighting and many people
died after that they told us to leave so
we fled
everyone did
ethiopia's government says its fight is
with rebel groups in the rebellious
tigray region
the state tv pictures claim to show its
forces liberating towns
but hundreds are reported to have been
killed
officials in the capital have resisted
calls for external mediation
we don't need any mediation until we
bring the exciting leaders to court
because um any mediation would
incentivize
impunity and unruliness tiguai tv
appeared to show captured eritrean
troops with whom rebel forces have also
been fighting
ethiopia says some of its soldiers have
also been taken prisoner
capturing our soldiers
our commanders generals we don't know
where they are now
truly speaking we don't know
our commanders they are in jail
we don't know maybe they are not alive
ethiopia's prime minister has promised a
final military operation in the coming
days
and said he's ready to reintegrate the
swelling numbers of refugees
now trying to survive on the banks of
the tick casey river in sudan
for some background on this story i'm
now joined from london by ahmad soliman
he's a researcher with the africa
program at the
chatham house think tank uh ethiopia's
prime minister issued a deadline for
tiggerized militia to surrender
he says that has just expired so what
can we expect to happen now
well it's it's difficult to know where
this conflict is going the situation has
been evolving very rapidly of course
we've had intensified military action
throughout
tigran in the west and and we're seeing
you know the numbers of reported
casualties rising into the hundreds if
not more
what we have also is ground fighting uh
taking place and
and troops advancing onto the regional
capital uh mckele
so the prime minister uh who has largely
controlled the narrative around
development
has asserted that this military action
will be swift
uh but but many people think that this
could become a much more entrenched and
protracted
conflict uh one which uh turns
uh with the tplf uh becoming an
insurgency
movement in a very difficult terrain a
mountainous and rugged
region so there is there isn't really a
i guess an understanding of whether this
operation which is being taken is one
which is to submit the tplf
so that they eventually come to a
negotiated settlement
in a very weakened position or one which
is
following the stated aims which is to
remove the tplf
administration from tibraay and and
and replace them with a provisional
administration
well you've said that prime minister
leadership
was really a dramatic change that
flipped the power dynamics on its head
is he risking to destabilize the whole
region there
yes i think that there are wider
regional implications
and and the possibility of protracted
conflict
we're already seeing uh could uh
could have uh really terrible effects
for the broader horn of africa region
for east africa
an area which has seen cyclical conflict
over many decades
and which was just i think under as well
the emergence of abby's leadership
beginning to look towards increasing
integrations
and stability as your report shows and
unverified
reports of eritrean fighters being
involved in
alongside the federal government forces
but what we do know
and has been admitted is that the tplf
have said that they have targeted
the eritrean capital as well as border
positions
with missiles we also know that
sudan as another neighboring country
has his own very delicate transition
with the civilian
civilian military administration and the
influx of tens of
thousands reported by the unhcr up to 25
000 as your report put it
increasing every day potentially into
hundreds of thousands of
of civilians fleeing the conflict in
sudan
could have a an impact on a region which
has its own intercommunal tensions and
which has been experiencing
its own travel troubles which could have
a broader impact on the sudanese
transition
brief answer please do you see any
solution to this any prospects for
international mediation perhaps and who
could do that
i think the timing is right needs to be
right for mediation at the moment
the federal government has said that it
is not open to that if the conflict
becomes
worse if it becomes more protracted and
losses are felt on both sides there
could be an opening
and traction for negotiated settlement
and bringing a truce to this conflict i
think the
the international community needs to
continue its strong messaging to
de-escalate to to bring truce and to
allow humanitarian access
and they also need to prepare who the
mediating team would be
whether that would be mandated through
the united nations
african statesmen in charge such as
the au chair cyril ramaposa and
so i think that the only way forward for
for ethiopia really
is through inclusive dialogue and
through coming to a negotiated
settlement
alma telemat in london thank you for
this