hi everyone welcome back to my channel if you're new here my name is Stefan and today we're going
to do recap of what happened with the sun its solar activity for October 2022. now if you
don't know what a solar cycle is basically the sun undergoes a magnetic flip every 11 years so a full
solar cycle is 22 years on average but it's really the 11 year cycle that we're interested
in as it goes from a minimum to a maximum now we have here on screen sunspots from 2019 to 2032
and we have sunspots from 1900 to 2030. if we look at sunspot activity which is a quarter of
measure for overall solar flux and solar activity we see that Sunspot numbers for October 2022 were
flat with September 2022. you can see the two black dots there or rather diamonds and those
were also at the same level as they were for May so we had this big increase in solar activity at
as measured by sunspots with the beginning of solar cycle 25 far outpacing the NASA and NOAA
model shown here in red and it peaked in May 2022 and then from that point on we had some
volatility but now in September and then also the past month of October we've had a relative flat
Baseline right up against that top Watermark set in May so the sun's been very very active lots of
sunspots lots of energy being flung out a lot of flares that have actually not hit the earth that's
kind of like shooting a Bullseye from far away but it does happen so the sun is ramping up in
its energetic output as the magnetic pole flips because as that magnetic pole flips field lines
bulge out from the core the overall magnetic field because becomes more unstable and overall the sun
becomes a higher energy output Celestial so if we look at Sun swaps from 9 1900 to 2030 what I want
to show here is kind of the up and down cycle that the Sun goes through and we don't have
much historic data on the Sun the next slide will show from 1750 and on but there's a seems to be a
trend where the sun goes up and then down and up and down over a multi-decatal time span and if we
look at solar cycle 19 here in solar cycle 20 if you were to average those twos out because they
were a little bit of a like a seesaw in my opinion if you were to average them out then it looks like
17 18 21 22 23 we're all basically flat added 19 and 20 there so 24 is an anomaly it's quite
a bit lower than most the solar cycles that have occurred 25 seems to be going faster and ramping
up to a higher intensity than predicted and that prediction is basically modeled off of solar cycle
24. it looks nearly the same so this might also be a c Esau effect between 24 and 25 and we might see
solar cycle 25 return to the historic average of about 175 sunspots at the peak so right now we're
hovering at just under 100 we're already seeing a lot of high energy events here on Earth we're
seeing a lot of solar activity we had tons of solar flares that hit the earth at the beginning
of September I talked about that in the last recap we had a lot of solar activity back in May
and June and that's only going to increase as the solar cycle continues if we go to the next slide
we have solar cycle 24 here and solar cycle 25 you can see that we're ready at those numbers that
kind of made solar cycle 24 for most of its uh lifetime there it only had this one Peak up there
and then you see the purple is the average we have this one Peak up there for about a year and
a half two years solar cycle 25 is already there we've already ramped quite a bit up and whether we
keep going or not remains to be seen that's why I do these recap videos so we can have a little
bit of a better understanding of what the future may hold by looking at the past data now here's
the past data right here some spots from 1750 to 2032 and I want to show you that kind of up and
down really long-term Trend that exists so we see the up here and then there's this down period like
that and then it ramps up and then it goes down with a few anomalies in between then it goes up
and then starts to go down like this now whether this up and down phase is really long or whether
it's fairly short remains to be seen I mean this one here was quite rapid whereas this one looks
like it was quite a bit longer maybe this is all random but again there's always Order and Chaos
so the historic data isn't uh going to tell us exactly what's going to happen for the future
but it gives us a little bit of an idea of what we might be able to expect in certainly history tends
to repeat itself so that's the Sunspot data for October the radio flux data the 10.7 centimeter
radio wave that is also a really good core-live measure for solar activity that also stayed flat
compared to September and May and that is uh basically a radio wave that the sun emits uh
it's 10.7 centimeters in wavelength that's really easy to measure now if we go to our terrestrial
data we have a earth magnetometer here this is the vertical component and then we also have
solar wind density speed and temperature and below that we have the daily a index for the estimated
planetary a index and this is a measure of geomagnetic perturbation we have the geomagnetic
field that surrounds the Earth and as that gets uh warped and it undergoes all these uh compressional
forces and expansional forces it then uh basically warps around and the magnetometers that various
research institutions have set up measure those changes and you can bake it into a nice colored
graph here so it's easy to understand so yellow is a greater geomagnetic perturbation than a very low
value like we see here and if we look we see four yellow days uh each one of these bars is a day and
then we see a increase here that's three days long and if we look at this one and go straight up we
see that there is a large magnetometer variation there so that was picked up as well we also see
that this is when solar wind temperature began to increase again as well as solar wind speed
and even a little bit of solar wind density which stayed pretty flat through most of October
if we go to this yellow day here a little bit of an anomaly we don't see much with the magnetometer
but we do see that this is when solar wind speeds started to go down temperatures started to go
down a little bit if you go to the beginning of October this is October 3rd we see a spike in the
magnetometer there the vertical component we see a little bit of changes in density some overall
volatility and speed and temperature that could be associated with that because as solar wind is
going through space and then it hits the Earth's magnetosphere that's what causes a lot of these
warps and changes to the Earth's magnetic field now if we look at this day here we have a high
and then it goes down for a couple days afterwards we see that's uh lined up pretty nicely with the
beginning of a solar wind temperature increase as well as the solar wind speed increase that's
typically what does it with these geomagnetic perturbations is when the speed increases or
decreases tip typically increases and then we see the wind here then we see a nice ramp up there
with geomagnetic fluctuation and that's not really associated with much I mean you could say some of
these ramp up there some of these increases there are with those days but it becomes stable at the
end so some temperature and speed correlations we do see some magnetometer volatility there
that's associated with that so overall October was a fairly stable month there wasn't anything
too drastic that happened in October we did have some solar flares that impacted we did have some
changes in solar wind that was notable one easy way to measure solar activity is to look at the
Schumann residences and that is uh basically energy fields that the Earth carries in the 0
to 40 Hertz range and that's because a lot of energy likes to exist in that frequency range
on Earth due to the structure of the earth its circumference and the ionosphere and a whole
bunch of things which I go into on my channel so if you look at the Schumann resonances data which
is going to be the next video it was relatively quiet in October so that's a good way to look
at solar activity is to attract the shoe Mount residences and I also do monthly Recaps on those
as well so if you like the video please click that like button I'm happy to provide these updates on
solar cycle 25 because I know a lot of you find that valuable and if you want to see these as
they come out if you want to see other videos I release on the shoot my residences on solar
activity then I suggest that you subscribe to my channel a love to see you here please leave
any questions or comments or personal experiences or just predictions for what's going to happen in
the comments below let's start a discussion there I like to read those as well so thank
you so much for joining me today for watching this video and I'll see you in the next one ciao