JAPAN GAME AND INTERNET SECTOR ANALYST AT GOLDMAN SACHS.
GREAT TO HAVE YOU WITH US. YOU RECENTLY DOWNGRADED
NINTENDO TO NEUTRAL BACK IN FEBRUARY.
DO YOU STICK TO THAT CALL GIVEN THE LATEST RESULTS? MINAMI: YES.
THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR HAVING ME TODAY. YEAH.
I ACTUALLY DOWNGRADED NINTENDO TO NEUTRAL IN FEBRUARY.
AND WHY I DOWNGRADED IS NINTENDO SWITCH DOWN CYCLE
COMING DEEPER AND COMPETITOR EXPECTATIONS.
AND I STILL HAVE A NEUTRAL WEIGHTING FOR NINTENDO.
BECAUSE WHAT YOU MENTIONED, WE HAVE TO SEE SOME DOWNCYCLE AND
SOFTER SALES OF NINTENDO SWITCH IN THIS FISCAL YEAR AS WELL.
AND WE DON’T HAVE OFFICIAL NEWS
FLOW ABOUT POTENTIAL NEW CONS CONSOLE.
SO FAR, WE HAVE TO SEE MORE DOWNCYCLE GOING FORWARD. SHERY:
HOW MUCH SUPPORT WILL NEW GAMES LIKE THE SEQUEL TO THE LEGEND
OF ZELDA PROVIDE? MINAMI: YEAH. I THINK IN -- AN EXPECTATION
THAT ZELDA CAN BE SHIPPED AROUND THE 20 MILLION TO 30
MILLION. UNIT SALES. BUT THE COMPANY GUIDES 180
MILLION UNIT SALES FOR THIS FISCAL YEAR.
AND IT IMPLIED THAT THE SALES ARE REALLY SUPPORTED BY EXISTED
OLDER TITLE BECAUSE NINTENDO SWITCHES WILL EXPAND THE
PLATFORM. SO THEY HAVE TO INCREASE OR
THEY HAVE TO, YOU KNOW, STIMULATE ENGAGEMENT FOR USERS
ON NINTENDO’S SWITCH. AND ALSO THEY HAVE TO INCLUDE
USER ENGAGEMENT FOR A NEW TITLE AND OLD TITLE.
SO I BELIEVE ZELDA WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOFTWARE SALES.
BUT THE POINT IS NINTENDO
SWITCH -- STILL CHALLENGING LEVEL. HAIDI:
HOW MUCH DID THE SUPER MARIO MOVIE HELPED MITIGATE THE
PROFIT DRAG? MINAMI: YES. SO ACTUALLY THE MARIO MOVIE BOX
OFFICE IS AROUND -- OR OVER 150 BILLION YEN GLOBALLY.
AND I ASSUME NINTENDO ALREADY FACTORED INTO 30 BILLION TO 40
BILLION YEN OFF THE CONTRIBUTION TO THEIR GUIDANCE.
SO IT’S ACCOUNTED FOR AROUND 10% OF TOTAL GUIDANCE YESTERDAY.
SO I THINK IT’S A MEANINGFUL SUPPORT.
AND I BELIEVE THIS MOVIE IS GOOD FOR SHORT TERM BUT ALSO
GOOD FOR LONG-TERM PERSPECTIVE. BECAUSE MARIO MOVIE CAN EXPAND
POPULATION OF NINTENDO. AND THIS WILL BE POSITIVE FOR
LONGER TERM POTENTIAL CONSOLE GAME POPULATION EXPANDING.
HAIDI: OTHER THAN A POTENTIAL YET TO
BE CONFIRMED MODEL FOR THE SWITCH AND FURTHER KIND OF
CATALYST TO THE UPSIDE THERE, WHERE DO YOU SEE SUPPORT COMING
FROM -- THERE HAVE BEEN SOME MORE GAME APPROVALS FOR THE
CHINESE MARKET? MINAMI: YEAH.
FOR CHINA, THEY LOOK TO INDIVIDUAL REGULATION AND
NINTENDO WILL THE -- GOT SOME TITLES AND WITH TENCENT.
I DON’T EXPECT NINTENDO WILL ENTER THE CHINA MARKET STRONGLY
GOING FORWARD. BECAUSE FIRSTLY, CHINA MARKET
IS STILL UNIQUE. THEY HAVE A MEANINGFUL EXPORTER
TO MOBILE AND P.C. RATHER THAN CONSOLE.
AND WE HAVE A -- A LOCAL EDITION FOR CHINA MARKET.
SO I BELIEVE NINTENDO’S -- CHINA IS NOT -- YOU KNOW, FOR
NINT NINTENDO. SHERY: WE HAVE TO LOOK AT RESULTS FROM
BANDAI NAMCO AS WELL. WHAT ARE SOME OF YOUR BEST BETS
WHEN IT COMES TO THE GAMING SECTOR ACROSS ASIA? MINAMI:
YEAH. SO FOR DECEMBER QUARTER EARNINGS, WE SHOW -- WE
COULDN’T EXPECT THE SOFTWARE SALES, ESPECIALLY IN THE STATES
BECAUSE OF INFLATION. BUT FOR MARCH QUARTER, SO FAR,
I DON’T SEE THAT WE -- WEAKER-THAN-EXPECTED SOFTWARE
SALES SO MUCH.
SO TODAY, CAPCOM, REPORTS, I DON’T HAVE MUCH CONCERN ABOUT
IT FOR THE RESULT. AND ALSO JAPANESE COMPANIES
HAVE A TENDENCY THAT THEY GUIDE -- THEIR GUIDANCE SO CLOSE AT
INITIAL LIKE MAY. BUT I THINK IT’S A GREAT TIMING
FOR THE JAPANESE GAME COMPANY NAMES. BECAUSE WE CAN EXPECT
CONSERVATIVE GUIDANCE IS KIND OF ALL THE BAD NEWS IS OUT.
AND I LIKE BANDAI NAMCO’S DIVERSIFIED OR ENTERTAINMENT
PORTFOLIO. THEY HAVE A TOY BUSINESS, GAME
BUSINESS AND AMUSEMENT BUSINESS AND IF THEY CAN, YOU KNOW,
PROMOTE I.P.