top trade negotiators in years in China resume negotiations in Washington today
the entire world is keeping a close eye on how this 13th round of talks will
unfold as there's a lot riding on the outcome of these talks with significant
ratification for not only the world's two largest economies but the global
economy so what are the prospects a sweeping treaty or another breakdown
let's get some experts analysis joining me live via Skype is Jeff moon and
international trade Affairs consultant from Washington DC he also previously
worked for the White House as the assistant US Trade Representative
welcome to the program thank you now I'm as USTR Robert light Heiser and Treasury
Secretary Steven minutia enter trade talks today there have been in various
speculations about the prospects for this week's two-day talks
some reports say officials are heading to the talks with low expectations for
major progress in reaching a deal months after negotiations broke down in May
while others say that China is open to a small deal as long as Donald Trump does
not impose more terrorists while China offers to increase annual purchase of US
agricultural products what are your prospects I mean is this
mini deal good enough or is it not well the parties have made it very clear that
we're probably not going to get a comprehensive deal out of this round
there have been press reports that lyoha the lead Chinese negotiator has said
that he is not going to be addressing the industrial policy issues that are of
most concern to the United States and I interpret the American decision to
impose these sanctions just two days before talks start as there's likely an
expectation that there won't be a full deal so so what's possible I think that
a mini deal is possible from about now until they're beginning the real
beginning of the u.s. electoral season that's probably February the 3rd that is
when the Iowa caucuses will be held and the first voting will be happening and
when you look at the kind of things that could be in the mini deal I would say
look at the things that both parties want to do and would
do were it not for the fact that they want to punish the other side and these
are things like on the Chinese side agricultural purchases China need
soybeans they need pork pork inflation has gone up 60% on pork prices because
China has a problem with this pig population on the American side the
American side wants to probably think about some technology licenses perhaps
for Huawei non-security related one perhaps Android and things like that and
frankly I don't think President Trump wants to impose the next round of
tariffs which for the first time would directly affect consumers so these are
all things that both sides could frame as concessions or goodwill gestures but
in fact are really self-serving things that they would do anyway were it not
for the fact that they're in the middle of a trade war so let's say you said
that you have you have a red beets hence that
there will not be a comprehensive a deal reached until the electoral season which
will be February in the US next year so however both parties are tangled and a
political turmoil Trump with an impeachment proceedings in the US and of
course Xi Jinping with angry protesters in Hong Kong would they not welcome some
good news or a deal in the trade front
yes let me clarify a bit in my meaning my meaning was that there's a window
between now and when the electoral season starts in February where we could
do a deal I think that after that time in the middle of the electoral season it
will be too hard there will be too much pressure here domestically for Trump to
make a deal but you raise a good point I think that both Trump and Xi Jinping are
probably politically at their weakest point of their tenures because of in the
case of Trump impeachment and because of the political pressure in Hong Kong and
it occurs to me that if they were do the kind to do the kind of things I
described before that this would be a good way to create good news divert
attention and probably benefit both of the countries
no I'm Jeff why don't you help us or help us make sense out of this I mean
you were at the table negotiating such deals yourself with the US government
before now the US government of course slapped blacklisted blacklisted 28
entities or Chinese firms why would try to agree to any kind of a deal at this
point despite the trump administration's latest block listing of more than two
dozen Chinese firms and and put visa restrictions on Chinese officials like
we just reported before the Skype link-up
well since those sanctions were announced there have been press reports
of Chinese willingness to strike a mini deal just today there were those reports
that came out so that seems to be the fact I do think however though it was a
mistake to bring up these political issues in the context of the trade deal
which is really about economic issues this is the first time that the Trump
administration has brought political concerns like human rights in Xinjiang
into the context of the trade deal and traditionally US administration's in
dealings with the Chinese have separated these kinds of issues out because once
you start piling more and more issues into a negotiation whether it be a trade
negotiation or any negotiation things get complicated and it's much harder to
sort them out and then to solve the dispute and reach a full resolution so
it is my hope that in the future they will find a way to split these issues
out it was unfortunate that it's done this way and we'll just have to see how
it plays out in the short term now from now until they reach some kind of a mini
deal and then until they reach hopefully a comprehensive deal what are some
factors that will impact the us-china trade deal on in the mid to longer term
do you think well politics is certainly a big part of it in the in the US the
politics is all about the US election that's coming up and that's why I say
that in the short term until February that that pressure is diminished but
starting in February or even the beginning of the year everything
that Trump does including any deal he has will be examined in
great detail and criticized in great detail and that's why with every day
that passes toward the election chances of a resolution diminish before the
election on the Chinese side I think the Hong Kong situation is
really very serious this is a serious challenge to China if China cracks down
severely on Hong Kong I think there will be no trade negotiation and no trade
resolution into the indefinite future and that would be very unfortunate I
think the China's trying very hard to manage the situation very carefully but
internal politics are very important and there's another problem that's just
developed within the past few days and that's this NBA situation which has
started a boycott which is another retaliatory tactic that China has not
yet used in this trade dispute they have not actually gone into boycotts the way
that they did in 1997 with South Korea just I hope this is not a new phase of
the trade were the kind of retaliation that we're going to see but that's
something that we also need to watch very carefully we need to contain the
retaliation because in the end really the people of both China and the United
States really want a resolution of this problem now and also what kind of an
impact we can we expect at this trade war if prolonged it between the two
world's largest economies to have on the global economy Asian economy and and
then down to the South Korean economy well from a the biggest macro
perspective I think the biggest effect is on our rules based global trading
system we had been working since World War two to create an orderly rules-based
trading system where we could resolve trade disputes peacefully and I think
that this has done great damage to that because a lot of principles have been
ignored with regard to specific countries and Asia and South Korea I
think what you're seeing is shifting supply chains companies do not want to
ship supply chains is not easy to move people resources person you know
personnel everything and once you do it you don't move back so those
my chains are now shifting as we speak and I think that that is going to affect
the economy of China it could be to the benefit of a lot of other countries and
I know that South Korea plays an especially important role in the
electronics industry and so there's going to be a great impact on the supply
chain that South Korea has as well all right Jeff moon international treaty
furs is consulted and a former assistant at USTR thank you so much for your
insights today we appreciate it my pleasure thank you