Hey! What's up everyone?
My name is Ajwritescrypto.
And welcome to the Price Prediction Department!
In this video, we are going to cover Gala Games.
I have had a lot of people asking me for a GALA price prediction.
And now I see why.
This one's for you.
Thank you to Stake for sponsoring this video.
Let's get it!
To be completely honest, just speaking from the heart,
this coin was not at all easy to do a price prediction on.
There are a lot of moving factors, things that are changing.
When you look at GALA zoomed out from a bird's eye view,
there's a couple things that yell at you immediately,
but there is still so much potential here with this project.
And that is completely obvious to me after doing such a deep dive of research.
I also want to thank Jason Brink, the President of Blockchain at Gala Games,
who helped answer a bunch of the questions I had.
Jason, thank you very much.
So to start off this video,
if you just look at a weekly chart for Gala Games,
it's kind of a scary sight,
but there's still a lot of hope there.
When you look at the pump in November of 2021
that took GALA to its all-time high of 83¢,
this coin pumped about 900% in 12 days.
That is absolutely ridiculous.
In the world of crypto, we're always looking for that next 10X coin
that's going to take us to the moon.
And in November of 2021, GALA did this perfectly.
And since then, everyone's been sitting around
wondering when that massive pump is going to happen again.
Unfortunately, GALA is down 96% from its all-time high.
But that didn't stop it from starting off this year
with a 300% pump in just 30 days.
So to put it in layman's terms,
yes, when you're looking at price action, this coin got completely obliterated.
But this coin still has those insane pumpamentals
that will just shoot to the moon every now and again.
And people want to know,
what is possible?
Where can this coin go?
Before I get in to the complex mathematical equation
that led me to my price prediction,
I want to just go into what Gala Games is,
what they're all about and what they're doing now.
Simply put, Gala Games is the fusion between gaming and blockchain.
It's as simple as that.
They have plenty of games that you can go play right now.
A handful of them are actually really cool.
Some of them are play-to-earn.
Some of them are integrating play-to-earn elements.
Some of them are just fun games to play.
What I like most about Gala's approach is that there's not just one game.
If you look at Axie Infinity, so to speak,
and we saw how explosive Axie Infinity was in its heyday,
but at the same time, to be completely honest with you,
have you ever played Axie Infinity or ever watched anyone play Axie Infinity?
It wasn't the most fun game.
Not hating on the ecosystem, but the game isn't that fun.
Just being honest.
What I like about Gala is that they're not just tied to that one game.
There's a bunch of games and there's a bunch of new games coming.
For GALA to have another one of those blast-off pumps to the moon,
all it's going to take is just for one of those games to go off.
That's all it's going to take.
This approach is way better.
They're not completely tied to the success of one game.
Any of the games they're building or already have built could go off at any time.
And if that happens, buckle your seat belt.
What I like most about Gala, especially after talking to Jason Brink,
is that they are taking a gamers-first approach.
They're not exactly focused on what the investors think,
the investors want you to do this, the investors want you to do that.
Of course, that approach is frustrating to some investors,
but the truth here is that they're more focused on entertaining,
on building good games that people will play.
Because let's be honest about something.
There are so many more gamers than there are people who invest in crypto.
Their idea is that if they focus on the gaming aspect
and onboard those people into crypto, it's going to work out in the long run.
And despite getting crushed in price point,
they still have a bunch of accolades to hang their hat on.
According to their website, they have 1.3 million active users,
they've sold over 26,000 NFTs,
they have over 90 people on their team,
and they also sold one NFT for over $3 million.
And not to mention, their games are actually pretty cool,
especially when you compare them to something like Axie Infinity.
If you've ever checked out Last Expedition, or Superior or Spider Tanks,
you know these games are actually fun to play
and you can integrate your NFTs in with the game
and play to earn and have a good time.
As a gamer myself, I find this approach very refreshing.
I'm going to be completely transparent here.
I reached out to Jason because, recently, Gala upgraded from V1 to V2
with their smart contract,
and the Founder's Node governance vote completely changed their emission schedule.
So, as you know, our equation for price predictions
is price equals market cap divided by circulating supply.
When I show you my exact math, we'll get more into this.
But with the change on how they're doing their emissions
from the smart contract upgrade,
it's not exact math on how many more coins will be added to the supply every day
because it's dynamic based off of network usage,
and network usage determines how many coins are burned.
And it's very hard to calculate how many coins are going to be burned,
especially when it changes and it's dynamic every day.
When I asked Jason about this,
I'll read the exact message from him,
he said, "To your specific point about how to predict future supply,
it isn't something you can nail down super simply
because it depends entirely on usage in a dynamic balance
working to maintain a degree of equilibrium.
It isn't designed for price predictions.
That isn't something we focus on (much to the frustration of some).
We focus on games and building awesome entertainment experiences."
And to be honest, I completely appreciate such an honest answer.
Everyone wants to know exactly what the supply is going to be on this date this year,
and he's like, "Look. That doesn't matter that much to us.
We are focusing on the games."
They changed the smart contract around.
They turned their backs on the way they used to do it.
They used to have a halving every year, and it would cut the supply in half,
but now they're doing it another way.
And in their blog, the benefits of doing it this way are sustainable node rewards
to incentivize the people to continue participating,
it reduces the volatility, and it stabilizes the ecosystem.
They're completely doing this on purpose
to take the dynamic nature of the gas burning and the network usage into account.
While we were having our conversation,
Jason also posted a very lengthy post on Twitter.
And I'm not going to read the whole thing, but this is the gist of it.
He wanted to figure out how many Ethereum addresses actually exist.
Like, how many people are actually using crypto every day?
He says in the tweet,
the reality is, is that only 233 million Ethereum addresses have ever been used.
But some people have two addresses.
Some people have a lot of addresses.
So, how do we figure out exactly how many users there are?
In his tweet, he points out that ConsenSys reported
that MetaMask reached 30 million active monthly users last year.
So he's estimating in a best case scenario
that crypto has about 20 million active users every year.
There is a bigger point we're getting to here.
And his point is that there are so many more gamers
than people who actively use crypto.
He says in his tweet that the amount of people that use crypto
is equal to 1/10 of the amount of people who play PUBG.
According to my own research,
25 million players play Fortnite every day.
So what he's saying here is that instead of pandering
to a small group of niche investors,
he wants to appeal to the broad world of the gaming ecosystem
and if he can onboard those gamers into Gala Games,
without turning them off
because, like, the crypto integration could be the most confusing part.
The crypto integration could make some people turn their backs.
Him and I agree that mass adoption will happen when people are using crypto
and they're not even realizing they're using crypto.
This is what it's going to take.
And this approach from Gala Games is extremely refreshing
that they're putting the gaming first.
So like I said, Gala recently updated the smart contract from V1 to V2.
When that happened,
they did something absolutely massive to show their community their true intent.
When they upgraded the smart contract,
they also burned somewhere around 21 million tokens
worth over $600 million.
These tokens were in the treasury and they weren't in the circulating supply.
Why did they do this?
Well, if you're in that community,
you would realize how much money their personal reserves are worth
and that there could be a pump and dump scenario
when those tokens enter the supply.
They did that to ensure everybody,
"Listen. We don't want you here for exit liquidity.
We want you here to play these awesome games."
And to be honest, Gala burned $637 million to prove that to their community.
They got some points with me on that one.
In my opinion, the biggest downfall to their V2 upgrade,
which just happened last month, by the way,
is that Coinbase is not accepting the V2 GALA.
If you hold GALA, it won't say V2 next to it or anything like that.
It automatically happened.
But you can no longer buy GALA on Coinbase.
And that's a big hit, especially for visibility.
You can still buy GALA on plenty of other exchanges.
But to not be on the most popular centralized exchange
and be such a popular coin in the community is a big bummer to me
and that really hurts their visibility.
So there's my rundown on Gala Games.
Let's get into the price prediction.
GALA hit its all-time high of 83¢ in November of '21.
At the time, it had a market cap of $5.19 billion and a supply just under 7 billion.
And this is where we run into some problems.
Right now, GALA has a market cap over $623 million
with a supply of over 24 billion.
So, as you can see, the market cap has fallen drastically
and the supply has increased exponentially.
So, if you take GALA's market cap from its previous all-time high
and divide that from its current supply,
you would only have a 22¢ GALA.
The main problem is, is that by the time we get to November of 2025,
the supply for GALA is going to be much higher than it even is now.
So, like I said, with the new smart contract update,
instead of doing a yearly halving towards the end of July,
now, they're doing a halving based off of where the total supply is.
And when I say total supply,
that's the circulating supply plus coins that are locked up or in reserves.
So, if you look at the emission tranches from the Gala website,
you will see if the total supply is less than 25 billion,
this number here will be the daily emission.
So, once the supply goes over 25 billion, but it's less than 37.5 billion,
this will be the total emission.
And that means that many coins are coming out every single day.
But, also, hold the phone.
We can't just go with this equation.
We also have to attempt to factor in the burn rate.
Like I said, there's a relationship between how much the network is used
and how many coins are burned.
So I'm going to attempt to do a very rough estimation to what the supply could be
by the time we get to November of 2025.
If you look at this website here,
it says "$GALA V2 Burn Overview."
It shows how many GALA were minted today so far
and how many GALA were burned today so far.
Also, if you look at this chart here,
it will show you how many GALA had been minted and burned daily
since the smart contract update.
So, what did I do?
I added up all these numbers starting on the 17th,
and I found that the average percentage of coins that are burned every day is about 18.5%.
So, right now, we have a supply just over 24 billion coins.
The incoming supply will halve once we get to 25 billion coins.
Until then, we're adding 68.493 million coins
to the supply every day,
except 18.5% of those coins coming in are burned every day.
Since you're watching this on Sunday,
it will take about 15 days for the next halving to happen.
So the next halving will happen, like I said, once we're at 25 billion coins.
The halving after that will happen once we get to 37.5 billion coins.
So, between those two increments in time,
there will be 34.246 million coins added to the supply every day,
and out of those coins added every day, 18.5% of that will be subtracted.
The sample size for the daily emmission rate I'm using is only 24 days.
The emission rate is dynamic.
It will change all the time.
So I understand the math I'm doing is a rough, rough estimate,
but I'm still trying my very best to estimate what the supply will be
by the time we get to November 2025.
So that is the process I used to figure out how long it's going to take
for each halving supply to happen.
That math equation I started with, it keeps going and going and going
because you have to get from one increment to the next increment
and every time you get to the next increment,
the supply halves and you still have to take 18.5% out of each day.
Long story short,
the number that I gathered for the estimated circulating supply
is 38.52 billion tokens.
So now that we finally have the denominator,
what about the numerator?
Right now, like I said, GALA's market cap is only $623 million.
To get back to its all-time high market cap of $5.19 billion,
it already has a lot of work to do.
But like I said, if they can have just one of those games
that completely pops off to the moon and everyone adopts
and everyone gets into that game,
the market cap for this project could really go high.
We know that it's been going down for a long time,
but it will find a bottom at some point.
And we also know that when this coin decides to pump,
it pumps super hard.
So we have to take that into account as well.
Do I think GALA can get back to its old market cap of $5.19 billion?
Yeah, I think that's probably in the cards for them,
especially with how many new games are coming
and how much better the games are as they've been coming out.
So, if we put that market cap in with the increased supply,
we're looking at a 13¢ GALA,
which is a 456% increase from its current price point.
Some of you are saying,
"Wait, do you think it can get back to its old all-time high of 83¢?"
Hold on.
So, if you take into the account the estimated supply,
which is 31 billion more coins than there were last time it was at all-time high,
you realize that for it to go back to 83¢,
Gala Games would need about a $32 billion market cap.
As a reference, in April of 2022,
Epic Games, who makes Fortnite, had a $32 billion market cap.
So, to compare and contrast that same angle once again,
you will see how hard it will be for GALA
to make it that far back to its previous all-time high.
I'm not saying they can't do it in the future,
especially if they have a couple games that go completely to the moon.
I'm sure it's possible.
But for the next bull run, I'm really trying to be realistic.
So the $5 billion market cap gives us a 13¢ GALA.
With an $8 billion market cap, GALA could get to 18¢,
which is a 637% increase.
So, when someone asks me,
"Hey, AJ, what's GALA going to be at the top of the next bull run?"
I'm going to tell them somewhere between 13¢ and 18¢.
But that's just an estimation.
That's all I got.
Be blessed.
Have a great rest of your weekend.