On one particularly bright day, in the summer of 1950, at the Los Alamos National Laboratory
in New Mexico, four scientists were indulged in a casual conversation about flying saucers during lunch
They were Emil Konopinski, Edward Teller, Hebert York and Enrico Fermi.
What began as a superficial conversation about a flying saucer cartoon quickly turned into
a discussion about the possibility of sophisticated societies populating the universe.
During the discussion Enrico Fermi came out with this casual remark.
“Where is everybody?”
This might come across as a simple existential question.
But this remark left scientists around the world scratching their heads, even to this date.
The root of the question according to the Search For Extraterrestrial Intelligence is that
"Fermi realized that any civilization with a modest amount of rocket technology and an
immodest amount of imperial incentive could rapidly colonize the entire galaxy.”
"Within ten million years, every star system could be brought under the wing of empire.
Ten million years may sound long, but in fact it's quite short compared with the age of
the galaxy, which is roughly ten thousand million years.
Colonization of the Milky Way should be a quick exercise."
According to scientific logic, the universe should be teaming with extraterrestrial lives
and colonies.
Whatever you see in The Guardians of the Galaxy or The Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy should
have been the reality.
Yet, all we see within the observable universe is this magnificent emptiness.
Sure, there might me bacterial lives floating in the oceans of a distant planet, but where
are all the civilizations?
Where are all the sentient beings?
Are we truly alone in this universe?
Have you ever slept in an open field, far away from the city and looked at the clear
night sky filled with stars?
I have, and the sheer number of stars and objects I see, never fails to give me a tiny
existential crisis.
It is extremely overwhelming.
But, on the very best of nights, we could only see upto 2500 stars and almost all of
them are less than 1000 light years away from us.
When we look up at the night sky, what we are really seeing is this:
Recently, the astronomers at the University of Auckland claimed that there are actually
around 100 billion, habitable earth like planets, just in the Milky Way, our galaxy.
There are roughly around 500 billion galaxies in the universe, meaning there is somewhere
around 5*10^22 (50,000,000,000,000,000,000,000) habitable planets in total.
Forget the whole universe, even if we take just our galaxy and apply some math on the
lowest estimate for the stars in the Milky Way, we would still estimate that there are
1 billion Earth like planets and 100,000 possible intelligent civilizations, just in our galaxy.
Search For Extra Terrestrial Intelligence or SETI is an organization dedicated to listening
for signals from other intelligent life.
Even if a fraction of those estimated 100,000 civilizations are sending out signals, shouldn’t
SETI pick up on any of those signals?
We have nothing, so far.
Now, Fermi’s casual remark is beginning to make complete sense.
We are 1 among 5*10^22 habitable planets.
So, naturally, why is it so silent?
Where is everybody?
And that, is Fermi Paradox and even the best of humanity are still trying to come up with
a reasonable response.
Several scientists have come up with various arguments, theories and calculations while
addressing this question.
In 1961, Dr. Frank Drake, wrote an equation that would, in theory, allow us to quantify
the number of intelligent civilizations out there.
It is called the Drake Equation.
The equation summarizes the main concepts, which scientists must contemplate when considering
the question of other radio-communicative life forms.
This is how the Drake Equation looks like.
If you manage to fill the appropriate values for all the components forming this equation,
you can, in theory, calculate the number of intelligent species with which we can come in contact
We cannot accurately calculate, at least not yet, most of Drake Equation’s
components, so we resort to assumptions based on our own observations, usually based on
the lowest estimates.
This is the biggest criticism on Drake Equation, it is unreliable and you can’t come to a
firm conclusion.
But in all fairness, Dr. Frank Drake wrote this equation, mainly to stimulate a mathematical
dialogue on this topic.
But one thing that Drake Equation proves is that, no matter how low the estimate is, it
is highly improbable that we are the only intelligent species that exist in the whole universe
After, all the possibilities of a hundred thousand intelligent civilizations, the observable
universe is still eerily quiet.
No detection, no contact, no Extraterrestrials.
Why?
There are many possible theories and speculations that respond to this question and we will
take a look at them one by one.
Reason No. 1 - We are in a remote part of the universe
Even though alien intelligent civilization exists, we might simply be too far away from
where the action is.
We might be in a remote part of the universe, several billion light years away from even
the closest of civilizations.
Reason No. 2 - The Great Filter Theory According to this theory, every intelligent
civilization will hit a block called The Great Filter.
It can be anything from Tsunami, Volcanic Eruptions, Earthquakes or even something that
we caused such as Nuclear War, that would send us right back to the stone age or even,
wipe us out completely.
Technology would never evolve in order for us to communicate to the farthest parts of
our galaxy.
This theory does seem closer to the truth, as we consume more and more energy from our
planet, but we don’t yet know what to do with the resulting heat.
Temperatures are rising tremendously which would lead to a catastrophic situation.
There are still climate change deniers.
We are still fighting religious wars and territorial battles which would lead to the inevitable
apocalypse.
There might be several civilizations like us who tried their best to communicate with
each other, but never proceeded past the Great Filter and died off, not knowing if they are
truly alone.
Reason No. 3 - Earth is just not interesting While there might be a lot of intelligent
species that are capable of intergalactic flights and communications, there might also
be lands that are vastly more interesting than Earth.
This hits the ego with a hammer, but still, for these intelligent beings, Earth and its
species might look like a wasted hubris, especially if they’ve seen number of such up and coming
civilizations in different parts of the universe, it might not be interesting after a point.
Reason No. 4 - The Transcension Hypothesis This is probably the weirdest response to
the Fermi Paradox.
You know how humanity is all about world building, expansion and exploration, right?
We send satellites to explore oceans of strange planets; we try to live on Mars and expansion,
expansion and more expansion.
Well, the Transcension Hypothesis states that all the expansion would come to a screeching
halt and instead of exploring the outer space; we would explore the inner space.
For example: You probably know that computers were the size of a room just a few decades ago
But now, you are probably watching this video on a smart phone that fit your palm.
Similarly, as the Transhumanist movement expands, the merge of humanity and technology will
become inevitable, as organizations like 2045 initiative are focused on tracing the brain
patterns and uploading human consciousness onto an artificial carrier.
When we get past the technological singularity, we would no longer have our biological bodies
to limit us.
Then intelligent life would begin to evolve much the same way as computers, constantly
working towards a denser, more efficient use of Space, Time, Energy and Matter.
This is called STEM Compression.
Eventually, we will be living and operating on a nano-scale, until we become so small
that we create and exist in a black hole, outside of this space-time; essentially disappearing
from this Universe altogether.
According to Transcension Hypothesis, that’s why we aren’t coming into contact with any
intelligent species, because STEM compression and black holes are the ultimate destination
for any super intelligent species.
They even allow for time travel, and energy harvesting methods.
Reason No. 5 - We are living in a Simulation The Simulation Hypothesis states that we maybe
living in a computer simulation designed by super computers of the future.
I have discussed the Simulation Hypothesis in great detail in one of my earlier videos,
where I discuss why we maybe living in a computer simulation.
If you had watched The Matrix, Thirteenth Floor or The Truman Show, you might have some
idea of what I am talking about.
Simulation Theory is a reasonable response as to why we haven’t come into contact with
alien beings.
The answer is simply, that’s not how the simulation is designed.
Reason No. 6 – Our Signals Don’t Match
As Carl Sagan put it ‘we are still in the technological adolescence.’
Imagine we are sending radio signals out there while all these super intelligent species
operate on a completely different and a more advanced form of communication, which essentially
leaves us, undetected.
On the same note, maybe there are plenty of signals servicing as an evidence of extraterrestrial
intelligence, but we are too primitive to detect them as signals.
Astrophysicist Lord Rees once said,
Reason No. 7 – Earth is indeed, special
This is a straightforward, simple, but an entirely plausible theory that suggests that
the conditions on which this planet was created were so unique and complex, it is almost impossible
for it to be re-created elsewhere.
Even though there are millions of earth like planets, they maybe empty, because the condition
to create life is simply too complicated and life is special to us.
On the same vein, there is another theory that suggests that we might be too early to
the party and we may be the first intelligent beings to experience this universe.
Intelligent civilizations would thrive, well into the future, but we probably wouldn’t
be there to experience the show.
Reason No. 8 – Super Predator Theory This is probably the darkest response for
Fermi Paradox.
This theory states that there is only one higher intelligent species out there.
It is a super predator, which silently observes the universe for life forms, and if any civilization
grows past a certain point, the super predator exterminates them, as the growing civilization
is a legitimate threat.
According to this theory, that’s probably why it is so eerily quiet out there, because
we are constantly being watched by this omnipresent menacing predatory species that’s waiting
for us to evolve, just a little more.
When you talk about Fermi Paradox, you also have to discuss a lot of sub theories and
ideas that’s associated with it, that I didn’t discuss in this video; ideas such
as Kardaschev Scale, Matrioshka Brain or Dyson Sphere.
So I decided to produce two more videos on this topic, sort of a companion piece for this video
All right, now, what do you think?
Are we alone in this universe?
If not, why do you think we haven’t come in contact with any alien species?
Do you have reasons other than what I’ve discussed in this video?
If yes, please leave a comment below with your unique theory.
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