you know what made silver obviously from five thirty eight dot com which is one
of the most detailed and uh... i would say interesting to read polling election
prediction websites makes over has a pretty good reputation nate silver is a
guy who has been
uh... he's in new york times statistician
he is uh... of course
doing extensive polling on the twenty twelve election invention has an eight
and it turns out that right wingers may not like me sober a conservative
pollster named dean chambers is saying we absolutely cannot trust me silvers
numbers
and you know why we can't trust them
because nate silver seems kinda getting according to dean chambers this
incredible he has put out this investigative report
where he basically says if liberal bias all around it why is that well shearer
is here's exactly what he had to say nate silver is a man a very small
stature afsane and the feminine man
with a soft sounding voice
that sells almost excite exactly
like the mister nuke us tried a voice used by rush limbaugh on his program
in fact silver king easily be the poster child for the new construction in both
image and sound makes over maybe of average intelligent might be of average
intelligence but is surely not the genius he's made out to be
if you talk in a voice that appears to be effeminate and by the way nate silver
is openly gay
obviously we can't trust your poll numbers much the same way we can trust
you to do anything more uh... raise children right this opens uh... a lot of
doors here
i'm convinced
can trust me it's over
that what's funny is that this guy's website dean chambers is un skewed polls
dot com what the current prediction
on unskilled polls dot com it sets quote the updated definitive projection of the
race romney wins fifty four percent
and three hundred and fifty-nine electoral votes now the time
you've been looking at these numbers extensively
what is the actual based on it not
this individual but based on an actual average of polls
how likely is it that mit romney gets fifty four percent of the popular vote
and or three hundred and fifty nine electoral votes
well look there is uh... a number of polling aggregation websites that are
taking an objective look at what the evidence says from mostly state polls
but also a national polls
and of all of those including sam once princeton election consortium photo
manik dot com
there's a number of them the huffpost a blog has one of into nate silver's is
the most conservative right please get in opa mas seventy
today i think it's seventy two or seventy three percent chance of winning
compared to sam wong who's up at like ninety seven percent
exactly so among all the people who are looking at the evidence not in a
partisan way objectively as objectively as possible
nate silver's probably the most conservative most favorable to robbie
i think that this election cycle lewis
the discussions of pollsters have gotten the most politicize that i can remember
and it's probably not going to stop
especially now that we have so many factors of we have cell phones as the
often used one but now is the hispanic vote being considered correctly
or changes in demographics in population being considered correctly what is the
bias and party affiliation how are how is the likely nissa voting being
considered
we will soon o
in a week we will know which pollsters got it right this time around
i can only imagine
the pollsters who are way off and somebody inevitably is going to be way
off
because we've got such disparate predictions
are no longer going to be taken seriously at least i hope not
yes
uh... before years from now people probably will need to remember there
have been living studying to be perfectly honest honor let me make one
further point on this whole thing yeah certainly this isn't the you know the
crux of the argument but
nate silver sam walton the you know all these people that are really taking a
good look at the evidence in making predictions based on them
their reputation is riding on this day aren't they are not doing this for the
partisan interest
if they get this from the reputations going to be on the line and i can't say
that for most of the pundits that are criticizing them they're not gonna lose
their jobs for the reputations of they got it wrong
absolutely