Russian soldiers have been seen digging miles of trenches in Ukraine,
but why are they preparing to defend their positions when Putin has promised to take
over the entirety of Ukraine, not just the lands that Russia currently controls.
As the winter in Ukraine drags on, Russia is preparing for a Ukrainian
attack. Unfortunately for them, they’re doing it all wrong. Trench warfare was effective
when tanks were in their infancy and artillery guns were inaccurate.
However, over 100 years later, things have changed. Vehicles are more maneuverable,
and missiles can hit targets with precision. What hasn’t changed very much is Russia’s
military tactics. The nation hasn’t had to fight a high-tech war before,
and it’s beginning to show. The aid Ukraine is receiving from the west has allowed them
to get their hands on some of the most sophisticated weapons in the world. This
is one of the reasons why Ukraine has been so successful in defending its country from the
much larger Russian military. Another reason has a lot to do with Russian incompetence.
So, why are the Russians digging deep trenches and using tactics from World War I? Let’s find out.
In the initial invasion, Russia was able to break Ukrainian defensive lines as they had
sheer numbers on their side. But after months of fighting, Russia has lost around 100,000
soldiers and huge numbers of tanks and artillery. This happened because Russian military leaders
greatly underestimated the resolve of the Ukrainian people and the help they would receive
from the west. They also vastly overestimated the effectiveness of their own troops and vehicles.
This has led to Russian forces being pushed out of much of the territory they originally occupied
in Ukraine at the beginning of the war. It now appears that if Ukraine launches an offensive
in the next few months, they might be able to take back the southern region of their country,
including Crimea. If this happens, it would likely result in both the end of the war and
Putin rule over Russia. Once Crimea falls, there will be no way for the State-run media to spin a
tale that Russia is still winning the war. The Russian people will lose faith in their leader,
which may end with Putin and his regime being ousted from power.
Obviously, Putin knows he cannot allow this to happen. Unfortunately for him,
Ukraine is in a position to make Putin’s worst nightmare a reality. Ukrainian forces
have pushed all the way to the west bank of the Dnipro River in the Kherson region.
The next Ukrainian offensive will need to cross the river and reclaim the rest
of the Kherson Oblast from Russia. If they are allowed to do this, it’s only a matter
of time before Ukraine pushes into Crimea, and Russia will suffer a crippling defeat.
What this means is that Putin and his military advisors no longer have any ambitions to launch
their own offensive. Instead, they need to dig in, create fortifications, and stop Ukrainian troops
from pushing them out of Kherson. This is why satellite images have spotted new trenches being
excavated by Russian conscripts over the past couple of months. Other fortifications are being
built to hold the line, but the trenches seem to be one of the core parts of Russia’s tactics.
Like many of the strategic decisions made by Russian military leaders during the war,
the defensive plan using trenches seems to be half-baked. If Russia
was trying to stop Ukrainian forces from penetrating their defensive lines,
they should be constructing multiple lines of trenches that run parallel to one another. This
would allow them to fall back if things went sideways. Also, having multiple trenches means
that any advancing Ukrainian forces will be slowed down significantly while trying to break through
the defensive line and could then be targeted by Russia’s artillery to decimate their ranks.
However, these are not the types of trenches we currently see being dug in Russian-controlled
Ukraine. In fact, it seems that the incompetence of the Russian military extends to trench digging,
which is pretty impressive when you think about it. Using intel gathered from multiple sources,
the defensive positions of Russian forces look something like this. There are a few
problems with their current layout that you will probably notice right away.
It appears that Russia is anticipating Ukrainian forces will advance into the Left Bank of the
Kherson Oblast. But what if they don’t? The trenches being dug in this region would be
helpful for holding back a Ukrainian push as long as this is where they were coming from.
If Ukrainian forces entered through the Zaporizhia Oblast and hooked around behind Russian defenses,
the battle would be over before it started. Trenches are notorious for not being able to
move once they are dug. This means that if Ukrainian forces are airdropped in or
can cross the Dnipro River a little to the northeast of Russia’s main defensive line,
there are not many fortifications that would stop them from attacking Russia’s flank.
This would be a difficult attack to carry out as the bridges across the
river have been destroyed by both sides. But the trenches being dug by Russia seem
to be out of place even if Ukraine does attack through the Left Bank.
It’s hypothesized that the trenches would be used as defensive structures that Russian
soldiers could attack from. There is a key reason why Russia is using trenches
instead of launching its own offensive, and it has to do with how poorly their
troops did in the initial invasion. Russian soldiers are in short supply,
and experienced Russian soldiers are even harder to find. Putin had to conscript
hundreds of thousands of men to replenish the ranks of lost Russian soldiers. This means that
a large portion of the Russian military has no combat experience and only very basic training.
It’s much easier to put conscripts in trenches with guns and tell them to defend their hole
than trying to organize a complicated offensive with multiple maneuvers without properly trained
soldiers. This is why so many trenches are being dug. Inexperienced Russian soldiers will be much
more effective in a defensive position than they ever could be carrying out offensive attacks.
The problem is that the Russian trenches aren’t even in the right locations.
Currently, the trenches have breaks in them and are not long enough to serve as a formidable
defensive structure. Again, trenches are most effective when they stretch across
long distances, and there are multiple lines where defenders can fall back to. This is so
that enemy forces can’t just go around them. However, in the Kherson Region,
Russian trenches are only straddling main roads, most of which run toward the Crimean Peninsula.
This layout just goes to show what Putin is really protecting. The fact that the trenches being built
to defend against a Ukrainian offensive are uniquely positioned to keep them from
reaching Crimea indicates that Putin knows if the peninsula is lost, it is over for him. However,
it doesn’t make sense that the trenches just run along main roads. Throughout the war,
Ukraine has been pushing their tanks and armored vehicles across the countryside
and through difficult terrain. Sure, this makes travel a little slower,
but it also shows that they don’t need roads to carry out an attack.
The trenches running along roads are just a minor inconvenience for Ukrainian forces. If they do
decide to attack through the Left Bank, all they would need to do is veer off the main roads and
do some backcountry driving to avoid the bulk of the Russian trenches. However, Russia might not
actually have a choice when it comes to where they dig their trenches. Their numbers have become so
depleted that they might just not have enough soldiers to deploy across the entire region.
Therefore, the Russians are digging trenches in key locations that would be easiest for Ukrainian
armor to travel through. But the roads are by no means the only way to get across the Left Bank.
What is even more unfortunate for the Russian trench lines is that there are vast amounts of
open land that Ukrainian forces can utilize in the eastern part of the region. If Ukraine can
break through the initial Russian defenses and move their vehicles into the open countryside,
they will pretty much be able to move freely to encircle Russia's forces in Kherson.
And this wouldn’t be the first time that Ukraine's vehicles have crossed
rough terrain. When they took the northern region of Kherson starting in September,
their forces traveled through thick mud and undeveloped land to outmaneuver Russia’s
artillery and soldiers. By using this same tactic, Ukraine could circumvent Russia’s
trenches altogether. And the crazy part is that Russia knows that the Ukrainian
army is capable of doing this since they used the very same tactic only a few months ago.
Russia’s plan might be focused on digging trenches along major roads right now due to the wet winter
weather conditions, which make it difficult for forces to move through the region. However,
as the temperature continues to drop, the ground will become harder,
allowing for easier passage by vehicles. There is no reason that Russia should assume Ukrainian
forces won’t take to the open countryside once they cross the Dnipro River and begin
to reclaim the rest of the Kherson Oblast. Yet, that appears to be exactly what they have done.
Russia is also doing something else with the earth that makes up the Kherson region. On the
Kinburn Peninsula to the west of the Left Bank, Russian soldiers are building raised mounds that
could be used as defensive structures against any Ukrainian soldiers that enter the area. However,
this still doesn’t help them against a push to circle around the trenches and other
fortifications to the east. It’s clear that Russia is digging trenches and building earthworks to try
and fend off an offensive attack, even though they were the ones who invaded Ukraine to begin with.
All of this shows just how desperate the situation is for Russia. They are putting all of their
eggs in one basket, and if Ukrainian forces don’t attack exactly where Russia's defenses are set up,
it will be a catastrophe for Putin and his military. But the crazy thing is that since
all of the information we’ve been discussing is on the internet, Russia must know that there is
a huge gap in their fortification plans. And even more important than that, Ukraine must also know.
This means that whatever type of offensive Ukraine launches in the coming months will
likely take advantage of Russia’s poorly executed fortification efforts. It’s not unreasonable to
assume that Ukrainian forces will find a way into the Zaporizhia region and circle around
behind the Russian army in their trenches, cutting them off from reinforcements and
supplies. Then it would only be a matter of time before Ukraine pushed toward Crimea.
There is the possibility that Russia is laying a trap and deceiving Ukrainian forces with
their poorly built trenches. However, this seems highly unlikely as their strategic
planning thus far has lacked the foresight to pull off such a plan. But perhaps Russia
is luring Ukrainian forces into the Zaporizhia Oblast, where mobile defenses such as artillery,
tanks, and aircraft will be waiting for them. Again, this seems unlikely,
but the hit-and-run tactics of mobile defenses are how Ukraine defeated so many prior Russian
attacks. Perhaps Putin and his military advisors have learned something from Ukraine.
If their plan is to allow Ukrainian forces to come to them and then fall
back to a fortified location, drawing out the conflict, the question becomes:
what is the end game for Russia? Will the Russian military allow Ukraine’s army to
enter the region just to lure them toward the trenches where they can mount a long-term defense?
Suppose this is what Russia has in mind. If they can get Ukraine
to amass a large attack force and then pull them closer to their main defense,
Russia might have some surprises waiting for the Ukrainian soldiers. Perhaps they
will set up minefields in the countryside that they seemed to have left wide open. Or maybe
Russia is waiting for Ukraine to gather a large enough attack force and then decimate it with
a tactical nuke. This would open up a whole new can of worms, as the use of any type of nuclear
weapon would escalate the war to a point where NATO would have no choice but to get involved.
However, it’s more likely that Russia is just making bad decisions again with its trench and
fortification placements. Or it’s conceivable that they just don’t have the troops necessary
to dig the trenches and man them properly, so they are trying to be as strategic as possible.
The Russian trenches' main purpose may be to buy more time for conscripts to be trained
and deployed to the region. Perhaps all that Putin cares about right now is holding back
a Ukrainian offensive long enough to ensure he has enough troops in the coming months to
successfully hold Crimea. If this is the plan, then it would not come as a surprise if another
round of drafts happens in Russia and even more men are sent to Ukraine to fight in Putin’s war.
If the trenches were dug just to buy time, maybe the Russian military is hoping that a
new influx of conscripts will allow them to launch a counter-offensive sometime in the
spring or summer. We will probably never know what is going through the heads of
Putin and his military advisors, but thus far, their plans have not been working out so well.
Then again, the trenches might just be the best line of defense that Russia can come up with at
the moment. And if it was done properly, the trenches might make a huge difference.
Ukraine has been using HIMARS rocket launchers, which fire GMLRS rockets and ATACMS missiles to
decimate Russian ammunition and weapons supplies. A huge tactical blunder that Russia made at the
beginning of the war was stockpiling large amounts of supplies in concentrated areas. They did this
to allow for easy distribution to the front lines. Unfortunately for Russia, when Ukraine received
HIMARS rocket launchers from the United States, it allowed them easily destroy these supply caches.
Although, it is interesting to note that before being delivered, the United States modified the
rocket launchers to ensure that they couldn’t launch long-range missiles as they did not
want to give Ukraine the ability to strike Russian cities. The thought process for this
was probably to keep the war from escalating further, but it’s also kind of messed up as
Ukraine is fighting to keep its sovereignty from Russia. Either way, the HIMARS that Ukraine does
have has allowed them to destroy Russian weapons, artillery, tanks, and soldiers.
The trenches being dug could be used to reduce the damage done by these rocket launchers. Some
of the trenches are wide and deep enough for armored vehicles to drive through. Therefore,
if a Ukrainian offensive begins with an artillery strike or rocket bombardment,
Russian forces could seek shelter in their trenches. This could save the lives of at least
some of their soldiers and keep their vehicles and supplies safer than having them out in the open.
Although the missiles that Ukraine has can travel up to 50 miles and hit a target within ten feet
of accuracy; so, it is not clear how effective trenches will be against them. That being said,
Ukraine is desperately trying to get its hands on more missiles and rockets as supplies are running
low. Perhaps the trenches are also being dug in the hopes that if Russian forces can hold out
long enough to have newly trained conscripts join their ranks, they will be able to strike
against Ukraine before they can receive more weapons from the United States and Europe.
The other place where Russia is digging trenches is even
more surprising than the seemingly ineffective trenches in Ukraine.
Intelligence from the U.K. has shown that new trenches are being constructed in Belgorod,
Russia. That’s right, Russia is digging trenches in its own country. This comes as a surprise,
as Ukraine has made it clear that its main goal is to take back the land that Russia
has stolen from them and that they have no intentions of invading Russia itself. So,
why has Putin ordered the construction of trenches within Russia’s borders?
It appears that these trenches are being constructed to repel an attack by tanks and
armored vehicles. Even though it seems highly unlikely that Ukraine would ever invade Russia
while it is still fighting to take back its own lands, Putin has used the threat of invasion as
a way to mobilize Russian citizens to care more about the war. Like the misinformation
being spread by the State-run media, these new trenches on Russian soil are probably
just an attempt to unify the Russian people behind the current regime and their decisions.
Putin is losing the war in Ukraine, but if he can instill fear into the Russian population,
he may be able to renew patriotic sentiments and bring the people back to his side. This
doesn’t seem likely to work, but Putin has brainwashed many people in Russia
for so long that they may believe his invasion propaganda. If he can make the
Ukrainian military look like a force of evil trying to wipe out Russia and its people,
then he can justify continuing to fight the war against Ukraine.
This may seem like a convoluted plan to a rational person, but Putin is a psychopath
who will do whatever it takes to stay in power. If Russia loses Crimea and is pushed out of Ukraine,
the Russian people who are already suffering because of sanctions due
to the war could rise up. Putin has put his own head on the line by invading Ukraine,
which is probably one of the reasons the Russian military has been ordered
to dig trenches. Putin needs time to figure out how to turn the war around.
Unfortunately, whatever Putin has planned for the next phase of the war means there
will only be more pain and suffering. The trenches will make it harder for Ukrainian
forces to take back the Kherson region as they will provide Russian soldiers with at least
some protection from artillery and rockets. This will only result in the war dragging on
even longer and the deaths of more people, all because Putin saw something he wanted,
and no one tried to stop him from taking it before it was too late.
Now watch “How War in Ukraine Will Cause Russia To Collapse.” Or check out “Why
the Trenches Were the Most Dangerous Job in WW1.”