(gentle music)
- [Narrator] Satellite images show
a buildup of Russian military activity
at the Ukrainian border in recent weeks.
- There is concern that Russia is actually
getting ready to invade its smaller neighbor.
The Kremlin denies this.
(Lavrov speaking in foreign language)
- [Narrator] But US intelligence revealed
that Moscow has drawn up plans
for a military invasion of Ukraine
that could involve around 175,000 troops
as soon as next year.
- In the meeting with Putin I was very straightforward.
If in fact he invades Ukraine,
there'll be severe consequences.
- [Narrator] Ukraine has been trying to join
Western organizations like NATO and the EU,
but this is at odds with what Russia wants,
which is to have influence over the country.
The US and Russia have recently
expelled diplomats over cybercrime
and clashed over energy supplies
and a migrant crisis on the border
between Belarus and Poland.
- After the summit between President Biden
and President Putin in June,
there was a glimmer of hope that the countries
might set a different course,
but again there has been this struggle.
- [Narrator] Here's how the clash
between the US and Russia over Ukraine
is worsening an already tense relationship.
Russia invaded Ukraine
and seized the Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea
after the country staged a pro-Western revolution in 2014.
Ever since then, Russian President Vladimir Putin
has tried to prevent Ukraine's drift towards the West.
Ukraine has for a long time wanted to join NATO
and Putin has voiced anger of the US and its allies'
financial and military support of the country.
- The Kremlin has made very clear
that they feel that any kind of deployment of NATO troops
in Eastern Ukraine,
which would be Russia's western borders,
would be a threat.
And for Russia that is a red light.
(Putin speaking in foreign language)
- [Ann] The key question would be,
specially in relation to the Russian buildup of troops
on the border,
how far would the US and NATO be willing to go
in order to protect Ukraine?
- [Narrator] While the US and NATO
have no obligation to help Ukraine,
the Biden administration has threatened
serious sanctions against Russia
and said it wouldn't tolerate another invasion
like the one in 2014.
Washington has also said
it would help protect Ukraine's sovereignty
but pressed Kiev to reform internal issues like corruption.
Tensions between Russia and the US
have been building for a while.
The US recently imposed sanctions
and ordered the expulsion of more than 50 Russian diplomats
by June 30th
based on allegations of cyberattacks
and US election interference.
Moscow retaliated by doing the same,
ordering the removal of several US embassy personnel
from Russia by next year.
- This is the kind of of tit for tat,
what they call mirror measures taken against the US
who they say has basically violated diplomatic norms.
So there is definitely this back and forth,
this diplomatic tug of war, if you wish.
- [Narrator] In a call with Putin in December,
Biden warned that if Russia made any moves in Ukraine,
the US would prevent the completion of Russia's
Nord Stream 2 pipeline
which Washington sees as a threat
to European energy independence.
The pipeline would transport natural gas
from Russia to Europe
and be a huge source of energy revenue for Moscow.
Russia is a major exporter of gas to Europe
and an important channel runs through Belarus.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko
recently threatened to disrupt that flow of energy
after the EU imposed sanctions on the country
over a migrant crisis in November
on its border with Poland.
(Lukashenko speaking in foreign language)
- [Narrator] Western leaders have accused Russia
of helping exacerbate the crisis,
a claim that Moscow denies.
Earlier on in Biden's presidency,
Washington had wanted to establish
a closer relationship with the Kremlin,
but as tensions escalate over Ukraine,
political analysts say the two aren't making much progress
towards that goal.
- A lot of it can boil down to the fact
that actually feels that it has been ignored.
Both countries have said
of course we do not want this confrontation,
but it seems as though a lot of the times
it's one step forward, two steps back
as they each try to maintain influence
and not want to be seen as the weaker
between the two sides.
(gentle music)