With attention firmly fixed on Ukraine, the international
community all but ignored what came to be seen as the world's most deadly conflict:
the brutal war between Ethiopia and its northern province of Tigray.
Over the course of two years, the conflict went
through dramatic twists and turns as the sides won, and then lost, the upper hand.
But as Ethiopia and its allies stood poised to win
a final military victory - a victory that many predicted could lead to
a bloodbath - news emerged that a last minute peace agreement had been reached.
So, what happened? And is this really the end of the world's deadliest war?
Hello and welcome to the channel.
If you're new, my name is James Ker-Lindsay and
here I take an informed look at international relations, conflict, security and statehood.
On 2 November 2022, news emerged from South Africa that representatives of
the Ethiopian federal government and the Tigray People's Liberation Front,
the TPLF, had reached a monumental peace agreement.
After 10 days of intensive negotiations organised by the African Union, and chaired by the former
president of Nigeria, the two sides had agreed, as they put it, to 'permanently silence the guns'.
The news came at a crucial moment.
Over the course of two years, the bitter and brutal fighting in northern Ethiopia had cost
up to half a million lives and forced over 3 million people from their homes.
However, following a major offensive, the federal Ethiopian government, supported by forces from
neighbouring Eritrea, had by now gained the upper hand and were preparing for a final onslaught.
Indeed, as the talks started, most observers held out little hope of success.
Given the depth of hatred between the sides,
many believed that Ethiopia was determined to win a final decisive victory over the TPLF.
So, just how and why were the sides able to reach this agreement?
The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia lies in East Africa.
At 1.1 million square kilometres, or around 430,000 square miles,
it's the 26th largest member of the United Nations.
Its population currently stands at around 120 million,
making it the second most populous country in Africa.
This is made up of almost a hundred different groups.
The largest are the Oromo and Amhara, representing around a third and a quarter of the population
respectively, followed by Somalis and Tigrayans, at around six percent each.
Divided into nine autonomous regional states that are broadly aligned to the
main ethnic groups, Tigray is the country's most northerly region.
Ethiopia has a truly fascinating history.
Once better known as Abyssinia, it never formally came under European colonial rule.
Instead, in 1945, it became one of just four African founding members
of the United Nations - alongside Egypt, Liberia and South Africa.
However, our story really begins in the 1960s when Northern Ethiopia descended into conflict
as Eritrea, which had been granted to Ethiopia by the UN in 1952, began a war for independence.
Following the overthrow of the Ethiopian Emperor, Haile Selassie, by a Marxist military
coup in 1974 the main Eritrean militia - the Eritrean People's Liberation Front,
the EPLF - joined forces with other ethno-national rebel groups to fight the Soviet-supported regime.
The most important of these was the Tigray People's Liberation Front, the TPLF.
In May 1991, as the Cold War came to an end, these forces seized the Ethiopian capital,
Addis Ababa, and overthrew the military government.
This in turn saw Eritrea finally become independent and the rest of
Ethiopia reorganised as a democratic federation.
Despite its normally multi-ethnic character,
Ethiopia quickly came to be dominated by the Tigrayans.
Internally, it became a one-party State under the TPLF-dominated
Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front, the EPRDF.
Meanwhile, a falling out between the TPLF and the EPLF, the former allies of the uprising,
over the border in Tigray saw Ethiopia and Eritrea descend into a bitter two-year war
that estimates suggest may have left as many as 300,000 dead.
However, everything changed in 2018.
Following major protests, Abiy Ahmed Ali, an ethnic Oromo became the leader of the EPRDF.
Almost immediately, he began dismantling Tigrayan power.
In 2019, he dissolved the Front and formed the ethnically unified Prosperity Party.
However, the TPLF refused to join; accusing the prime minister
of increasing authoritarianism and trying to centralise power.
Meanwhile, tensions also grew between the young prime minister and Tigray
when Abiy Ahmed signed a landmark border agreement with neighbouring
Eritrea - an agreement for which he won the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize.
However, the final countdown to war began in March 2020.
As Covid spread, Ethiopia's electoral commission announced the postponement
of general elections that had been planned for that August.
However, the TPLF refused to accept the decision.
Seeing it as a power grab by the Prime Minister,
it announced that it would go ahead and hold the vote in Tigray .
By October, Ethiopia was in political crisis as the
federal and Tigrayan governments no longer recognised each other.
As Tigray withdrew from national institutions,
and refused to permit the appointment of a new commander of the Ethiopian
National Defense Forces in the region, the federal government began cutting funding.
But the final spark was an attack on a federal military barracks in Tigray.
On 4 November 2020, Abiy Ahmed addressed the nation.
Accusing the TPLF of carrying out the raid to steal weapons,
he announced that a six-month state of emergency had been imposed and that he
had ordered the national army to reassert control over Tigray.
From the start, there were deep concerns about the situation.
While Ethiopia was no stranger to insurgencies, with long-standing
rebellions elsewhere in the country, this was widely seen as much more serious.
The TPLF not only had significant weapons and manpower, but it also had extremely capable
military commanders - many of whom had held high positions in the National Defense Forces.
Despite this, Abiy Ahmed soon made it clear that he intended to win
the conflict by armed force - rejecting a mediation offer by senior African figures.
And, at first, it looked as if his plan was succeeding.
Just a month after the start of the operation,
federal forces had seized Mekele, the Tigrayan capital, and installed a new administration.
But any Jubilation was premature.
Having fallen back from the towns and cities, the TPLF was already regrouping in rural areas.
Meanwhile, reports were now emerging of atrocities across Tigray.
Even though all Communications to the area had been cut off, there were credible allegations
that Abiy Ahmed had enlisted the support of neighbouring Eritrea to help destroy the TPLF.
At the same time, the next-door federal state of Amhara, which had a long-standing internal
boundary dispute with Tigray, also joined the fight - attacking over in the west.
By early 2021, the situation in Tigray was desperate.
With food and medical supplies running short, and communications still cut off,
international concern was growing about the tactics the Ethiopian government was using.
With some observers now calling the siege "a weapon of war", the EU's
regional envoy told reporters that the federal official had even said
to him that Ethiopia intended to "wipe out" the Tigrayans.
However, events were about to change dramatically.
Led by senior generals, including a former commander of the Ethiopian army,
the Tigrayan Defense Force, launched a major counter-offensive.
By July 2021, the TDF had retaken Mekele and much of Tigray.
Having regained control, the TPLF laid down its demands for peace talks:
the full withdrawal of Ethiopian and Eritrean troops from Tigry; the complete lifting of
the siege; and the recognition of the TPLF as Tigray's legitimate government.
Meanwhile, as federal troops retreated,
Tigrayan forces continued to push southwards through Amhara and towards Addis Ababa.
By late summer, some even suggested that Ethiopia could be about to face
a repeat of 1991 when the TPLF marched into the capital and seized control.
However, just as things appeared desperate for Abiy Ahmed, the war took another unexpected turn
as Ethiopia began to acquire combat drones from Turkey, Iran and China.
As seen elsewhere, the effects of these new weapons was stunning/
Having reached just 120 kilometres from the capital,
by the start of 2022 Tigrayan forces had been pushed back and Tigray was
again under siege - in what the head of the World Health Organization,
Tedros Ghebreyesus, himself a Tigrayan, now called the world's worst health crisis.
By this point, the conflict had been going on
for 16 months and international pressure for talks was growing.
On 24 March, the Ethiopian government announced a unilateral humanitarian ceasefire.
Soon afterwards, the TPLF also agreed to stop fighting.
Naturally, many hoped that the truce would pave the way for formal peace talk.
aAd while the African Union took the public lead in settlement efforts,
the United States also convened secret talks of its own.
However, no agreement was possible.
Instead, in August 2022, and after five months, the ceasefire collapsed.
While it's unclear exactly what happened, it soon led to some of the most intense fighting
of the conflict as Ethiopia and its allies appeared to make a final push for victory.
With reports of a full Eritrean national mobilisation, and major
towns and cities in Tigray now falling to federal forces,
the U.N Secretary General warned that the situation was "spiralling out of control."
It was at this point that the African Union announced surprise talks in South Africa.
And despite widespread skepticism that the conflict could be ended peacefully at this stage,
on 2 November the news emerged that the sides had in fact reached an agreement.
In essence, the deal is built around four points.
First and foremost, it confirms Ethiopia's territorial Integrity.
Tigray will remain a part of the country.
Secondly, Ethiopia will have a single National Defense Force.
The TDF will be disarmed and disbanded.
Thirdly, the constitutional order will be re-established in Tigray.
This is likely to mean new elections.
The question is whether the TPLF will be allowed to remain a political force.
Given that it's a party to the agreement, it would appear as though it does.
If so, this would be the their big gain from the deal.
Finally, humanitarian aid will be sent to the region and reconstruction efforts will begin.
On top of all this, the government and the TPLF agreed to promote the peace deal,
and in language clearly designed to promote national unity, they would
call on all Ethiopians, in the country and abroad, to support the agreement.
Overall, the result is obviously a clear victory for the Ethiopian Government - but nevertheless
offers enough to the TPLF to secure its support in the face of final defeat.
But many may still wonder why the federal government agreed to the
deal when it seems so close to a full and final victory.
Most obviously, the agreement spares the
government from a final onslaught and a further horrific loss of life.
But it also offers at least one other clear advantage.
Contrary to what Abiy Ahmed may have originally wanted, the fact
that it preserves the TPLF could be more valuable than wiping it out.
Letting a demilitarised TPLF remain in political control in the north may make more sense than
having to impose a resented new administration after a catastrophic military defeat.
In addition, there's likely to have been considerable
encouragement and coercion behind the scenes.
While we may never know exactly what this was,
it could well have included obvious promises of reconstruction aid.
But, equally, the sides may well have been warned that they could face serious sanctions
if they failed to cooperate - even including the possibility of war crimes investigations.
Instead, and interestingly, the deal seems to pave
the way for internal arrangements for justice and reconciliation.
Regardless of what happened and how the agreement was reached, and we will no doubt certainly get a
fuller picture over time, the agreement is certainly a remarkable achievement.
All the actors behind it, but especially it would seem the African Union and IGAD,
the main regional organisation - deserve special credit.
As does the United States, which seems to have played an important role behind the scenes.
Had the talks failed, we could be looking at
a truly horrific situation - perhaps even a genocide.
As it is, the loss of further lives has hopefully been stopped.
Of course, we can't say that the conflict is now finally and definitively over.
A lot will depend on what happens next in terms of implementation.
And many will be skeptical that the sides will
be able to mend fences given the deep hatred that clearly exists.
But after two years of bitter and bloody conflict - a conflict that's seen hundreds
of thousands die and millions displaced - it seems that Ethiopia is now finally on the path to peace.
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