>>> ON TUESDAY, PRESIDENT TRUMP SAID THE UNITED STATES WILL
WITHDRAW FROM THE IRANIAN NUCLEAR AGREEMENT AND REIMPOSE
SANCTIONS ON IRAN.
PRESIDENT TRUMP FIRST FLOATED THE IDEA OF WITHDRAWING FROM THE
AGREEMENT REACHED BY FORMER PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA AS A
PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE.
WHAT WILL THIS ACTION BY THE PRESIDENT MEAN, AND WHAT WILL
THE FALLOUT BE?
DAVID MEDNICOFF, DIRECTOR OF MIDDLE EASTERN STUDIES AT U.
MASS AMHERST, SAT DOWN WITH ME TO ANALYZE THE SITUATION.
>> SO IRAN WAS DOING TWO THINGS IN THE MIDDLE EAST THAT WERE
FRUSTRATING FOR MOST COUNTRIES.
ONE, IT WAS VERY INVOLVED IN REGIONAL POLITICS, AND TWO IT
WAS BUILDING A NUCLEAR WEAPON.
THAT WAS VERY CLEAR.
>> WHEN YOU SEE REGIONAL POLITICS, YOU MEAN SUPPORTING
TERRORISM, AMONG OTHER GROUPS?
>> WELL, IRAN HAS AN IDEOLOGY BASED ON A PARTICULAR VERSION OF
ISLAM WHICH IS A MINORITY VERSION AND IRAN WAS HELPING
GROUPS FLUTE THE REGION -- THROUGHOUT THE REGION THAT
REPRESENTED THAT BRANCH OF ISLAM, I WOULDN'T CALL IT
TERRORISM.
IN TERMS OF THE NUCLEAR THING, THE WHAT I TO STOP COUNTRIES
FROM GOING NUCLEAR USUALLY IS SOME SORT OF GLOBAL CONSENSUS
WHERE THERE'S BOTH AN INCENTIVE AND A DISINCENTIVE.
FOR YEARS IT WAS ALL DISINCENTIVES, THREATENING IRAN
AND THREATENING SANCTIONS.
WHAT HAPPENED IN 2015 IS THERE HAD BEEN AN EFFORT TO PUT A VERY
TIGHT INTERNATIONAL DIPLOMATIC AGREEMENT IN PLACE, WHERE
COUNTRIES WOULD ALL PLAY BY THE SAME RULES, NAMELY IF IRAN
REALLY WAS WILLING TO GIVE UP DEVELOPING A NUCLEAR WEAPON AND
PUTTING ITSELF UNDER VERY STRICT MONITORING, IRAN COULD THEN
START TO BENEFIT FROM GETTING, FROM DOING TRADE AND BEING ABLE
TO SELL ITS OIL, AND OTHER COUNTRIES IN THE WEST WOULD ALSO
BE ABLE TO BENEFIT FROM DOING COMMERCIAL WITH IRAN.
WHAT WE'VE SEEN AND THERE'S A GREAT PIECE IN THIS WEEK'S
ECONOMIST ON THIS, IS THAT TREATIES REALLY ARE THE WAY TO
STOP COUNTRIES FROM DEVELOPING NUCLEAR WEAPONS.
IT'S A VERY, THEY DON'T HAVE A LOT INCENTIVES NOT TO DEVELOP
NUCLEAR WEAPONS BECAUSE THEY KNOW THAT GIVES THEM A MILITARY
EDGE.
BUT TREATIES HAVE BEEN THE THING THAT CAN DO IT.
AND IN 2015 BASICALLY WESTERN COUNTRIES AND CHINA AND RUSSIA
WERE ALL LINED UP WITH THE SAME PURPOSE THAT THEY WOULD AGREE TO
LOOSEN SANCTIONS IF IRAN PUT ITSELF UNDER A STRICT REGIME TO
STOP THE WEAPONS, AND THAT'S WHAT HAPPENED.
>> THAT'S HOW WE FIND OURSELVES HERE IN PRESENT DAY.
AND THIS WAS ALL HAPPENING AS THE ELECTION PLAYED OUT.
WE HEARD CANDIDATE TRUMP AT THE SAME SAY THIS DEAL WAS HORRIBLE,
NOT SOMETHING HE WOULD SIGN ON AND IF ELECTED HE WOULD
IMMEDIATELY GET RID OF THIS DEAL.
THAT DIDN'T HAPPEN IMMEDIATELY.
AS I UNDERSTAND IT, THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION AND STATE
DEPARTMENT WAS ACTUALLY STILL WORKING UNDER DIPLOMATIC
CHANNELS TO SORT OF STRENGTHEN THE BEINGSES OF THE DEAL THAT
THE PRESIDENT DIDN'T LIKE.
IS THAT CORRECT?
>> YES, AND OF COURSE THERE'S A BIG MISCONCEPTION IN WHAT SEEMS
TO BE THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION'S CURRENT ATTITUDE AND TRUMP'S
INITIAL FEELINGS ABOUT THIS.
WHICH IS SOMEHOW HAVING AN AGREEMENT TO STOP IRAN FROM
DEVELOPING A NUCLEAR WEAPON WAS GOING TO ALSO STOP IRAN FROM
DOING OTHER THINGS POLITICALLY.
MOST OF THE PRESIDENT'S COMPLAINTS HAVE BEEN ALONG THE
LINES OF IRAN IS A BAD ACTOR IN THE WORLD.
THIS WAS A NUCLEAR WEAPONS AGREEMENT AND IRAN HAS
STUCK TO THE DEAL.
AND SO SOMEHOW THE IDEA THAT THIS WOULD SPILL IMMEDIATELY
OVER INTO CHANGING IRANIANS' EXTERNAL POLITICS, WAS NEVER
WHAT ANYBODY INVOLVED WITH THE DEAL THOUGHT
THE ONLY WAY THAT WOULD WORK WOULD BE OVER TIME YOU BUILD
CONFIDENCE BECAUSE THE HOSTILITY IS RATCHETED DOWN A NOTCH WITH
THIS AGREEMENT.
SO I THINK IT'S IMPORTANT TO UNDERSCORE AS 95% OF PEOPLE
INVOLVED IN FOREIGN POLICY OR WAR HAVE DONE, THAT THIS WAS AN
AGREEMENT ABOUT STOPPING IRAN FROM BUILDING A NUCLEAR BOMB.
IT WORKED.
AND TRUMP'S OBJECTIONS REALLY DON'T MAKE A WHOLE LOT OF SENSE,
BUT THAT'S WHAT -- >> AMONG HIS OBJECTIONS
TEMPERATURE FACT THAT IRAN CONTINUED TO SUPPORT TERRORIST
GROUPS ELSEWHERE, AND SORT OF, AS PRESIDENT TRUMP HAD SAID, IN
ONE WAY OR ANOTHER FANNED THE FLAMES OF TERRORISM ACROSS THE
WORLD.
THAT WAS A CHIEF CONCERN OF HIS.
>> RIGHT.
>> IS THAT A CONCERN OF YOURS?
>> THIS IS SOMETHING THAT I THINK IS REALLY IMPORTANT.
THE WORD TERRORISM HAS NO MEANING.
TERRORISM REALLY SEEMS TO APPLY TO COUNTRIES DOING THINGS THAT
THE UNITED STATES DOESN'T LIKE, BUT IT REALLY DOESN'T HAVE ANY
MEANING.
IRAN PURSUES AN AGGRESSIVE FOREIGN POLICY IN THE MIDDLE
EAST THAT ATTEMPTS TO BOLSTER SHIA MINORITY MUSLIM GROUPS THAT
IS ABSOLUTELY OPPOSED TO THE STATE OF ISRAEL, WHICH MANY
PEOPLE IN THE REGION SADLY CONTINUE TO SEE AS A SORT OF
FOREIGN TRANSPLANT.
AND IT'S CERTAINLY CONTENTIOUS IN MANY WAYS.
BUT TERRORISM HAS NO MEANING TO ME.
IRAN PURSUES A FOREIGN POLICY THAT IN MANY WAYS IS CONTRARY TO
ISRAELI OR SAUDI ARABIAIAN FOREIGN POLICY.
THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION HAS VERY MUCH ALIGNED ITSELF
STRONGLY, AND AGAIN SOMETIMES WHAT OUR EUROPEAN ALLIES WANT,
WITH FOREIGN POLICY OF SAUDI ARABIA AND ISRAEL.
IN THAT SENSE, YES, IRANIAN FOREIGN POLICY FROM THE SAUDI
PERSPECTIVE, WHICH HAS ITS OWN AGENDA, AND FROM THE ISRAELI
PERSPECTIVE WHICH, YOU KNOW, LIKE THE U.S. AT THE MOMENT
REALLY THINKS ABOUT MILITARY OVER EVERYTHING, THOSE THINGS
ARE WHERE TRUMP IS A LINING HIMSELF.
BUT TERRORISM DOESN'T REALLY HAVE MUCH TO SAY.
YES, TO THE EXTENT I THINK TRUMP UNDERSTANDS IRAN AT ALL,
HONESTLY, DOES NOT LIKE IRANIAN POLICY IN THE WORLD.
BUT THIS AGREEMENT NEVER HAD ANYTHING TO DO WITH THAT.
-- AND THE ONLY WAY YOU CAN --
>> LET'S LOOK AT THE FACT THAT PRESIDENT TRUMP HAS NOW SAID THE
UNITED STATES IS WITHDRAWING FROM THIS IRAN DEAL.
WHAT DOES THAT IN EFFECT DO?
BECAUSE THESE OTHER COUNTRIES, BRITAIN, GERMANY, RUSSIA, AND
OTHERS, THEY'LL STILL BE SIGNED ONTO THIS AGREEMENT, SO THE U.S.
LEAVING THAT, COULDN'T THAT MEAN THAT THE DEAL COULD MOVE FORWARD
AMONGST OTHER COUNTRIES?
>> YES.
IT'S LIKE YOU BUILD A BOAT AND SUDDENLY THERE'S A HUGE LEAK IN
THE BOAT -- >> MEANING THE U.S. LEAVING?
>> YES.
AND WHAT I MEAN BY THAT, THIS WAS MEANT TO BE VERY CLEARLY
GRADUALLY INTEGRATING IRAN A LITTLE BACK INTO THE GLOBAL
ECONOMIC SYSTEM, WHICH GENERALLY SPEAKING THE ENTIRE POST WORLD
WAR II INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM WAS BUILT ON THE IDEA THAT IF
COUNTRIESES ARE TALKING TO EACH OTHER AND INTEGRATED INTO THE
GLOBAL ECONOMY, THAT'S WHERE THEY CAN ACTUALLY ARGUE AND
FIGHT IN A REASONABLY KIND OF CONSTRAINED WAY, RATHER THAN
GOING TO WAR ALL THE TIME.
SO EUROPE IS GOING TO SEEK TO CONTINUE THAT, BECAUSE IT'S BOTH
ADVANTAGEOUS ECONOMICALLY AND THE IDEA THAT YOU CAN ACTUALLY
PUSH AGAINST IRANIAN POLICIES THAT PEOPLE DON'T LIKE BY
TALKING TO THEM, YOU KNOW, IN A ROOM RATHER THAN SHOUTING AT
THEM AND THREATENING TO BOMB THEM IS, YOU KNOW, SORT OF TRIED
AND TRUE POLICY.
JUST TO FINISH ANSWERING YOUR QUESTION, THEY ARE GOING TO TRY,
EUROPE IS GOING TO TRY TO KEEP THIS GOING.
IRAN IS GOING TO TRY TO KEEP THIS GOING
THE QUESTION IS WHETHER THE LEAK IS TOO BIG TO KEEP THIS BOAT
GOING.
>> SO HOW LONG DO YOU THINK IT WILL BE BEFORE WE KNOW WHETHER
OR NOT THE U.S. WITHDRAWING FROM THIS DEAL IS GOING TO IN EFFECT
RUIN THE ENTIRE THING OR NOT?
>> WELL, I THINK IT'S LIKELY TO UNDERMINE IT SUBSTANTIALLY.
WE'VE SEEN THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION SAY THAT THEY ARE
ALSO THREATENING TO PUNISH COUNTRIES THAT CONTINUE TO WORK
WITH IRAN, WHICH IS AGAIN ALL OF OUR ALLIES, RUSSIA AND CHINA.
AND THEY'RE GOING TO KEEP WORKING WITH IRAN, THESE
COUNTRIES.
IN A LOT OF WAYS ECONOMICALLY THE U.S. IS SHOOTING ITSELF IN
THE FOOT, BECAUSE BY DENYING THE OPPORTUNITY TO WORK WITH IRAN TO
SELL THINGS TO IRAN, AND BY MAKING THINGS WORSE FOR THEIR
ALLIES IN TERMS OF TRADE, WE'RE JUST HURTING OUR OWN ECONOMY.
BUT I THINK IT IS NOT LOOKING GOOD.
>> WE'LL HAVE TO LEAVE IT THERE.
THANK YOU VERY MUCH.
>> YOU'RE VERY WELCOME.