In this series, we will analyse teams, identify problem areas, and suggest solutions in the
form of incoming players. We won’t follow gossip, rumours or conjecture, we don’t
have inside information, and we’re not considering the brand value of players. Purely, their
on-field performance, and their suitability for the team in question.
Today’s team is Liverpool. Welcome to sensible transfers.
Liverpool’s recruitment policy is one of the most effective in Europe. Despite having
access to the vast revenues that come with being a top Premier League club, they have
retained a hunger for finding value in the transfer market. This helped them to push
Manchester City close domestically last season whilst also triumphing on the continent, winning
the Champions League. They don’t need a major revamp this summer, though there are
a couple of areas they would wise to strengthen. Liverpool are an extremely potent attacking
force. Not only are they productive with organised possession, but they are highly effective
in transitions. When they lose the ball, they press to win it back instantly. And, when
they regain the ball, they counter-attack ruthlessly. These qualities enabled them to
obtain the second-highest Premier League totals in both actual and expected goals last season.
While Mohamed Salah and Sadio Mane get most of the attention for their finishing prowess,
Roberto Firmino is the central hub around which the team’s front three is built. The
Brazilian, signed in 2015 as a promising attacking midfielder, has essentially forged his own
unique role within Jurgen Klopp’s 4-3-3 system.
His position is anything but fixed: indeed, he moves into areas that most out-and-out
number nines do not. He regularly drops as deep as the middle third to link attacking
moves, and is adept at finding pockets of space between the lines or in the channels
to create passing lanes for Liverpool to progress the ball through. His involvement in building
attacks is underlined by the fact that, of all the Premier League’s central attacking
players, only Eden Hazard of Chelsea averaged more passes in 2018/19.
While he drops deep, Salah and Mane look to run in behind opposition defences. These opposite
movements cause problems as centre-backs cannot follow Firmino without gaps opening up for
Liverpool’s wide forwards to run into. And, when he gets on the ball, Firmino has the
ingenuity and precision to put his teammates through on goal.
The 27-year-old can finish chances himself, and he also plays a vital part in Klopp’s
pressing strategy, pressuring opposition centre-backs whilst angling his runs intelligently and
using cover shadows to block forward passes into central areas.
While Firmino’s tactical importance to Liverpool’s all-round play is obvious, the club does not
have a natural alternative in his absence. Daniel Sturridge, who occasionally filled
in last season, has been released, while Divock Origi is a completely different type of forward.
Finding potential alternates for this role is not simple as few clubs in Europe’s top
five leagues consistently make use of a false nine type up front. However, through use of
data, we can look for players who could potentially do the job. The areas we focused on were chance
creation, pass completion, finishing ability, and pressing involvement.
One player that captured our attention was Hertha Berlin’s Ondrej Duda. An attacking
midfielder who connects attacks well, he showed last season that he can finish too, scoring
11 goals in 32 Bundesliga appearances. His defensive numbers are excellent and only stand
out further considering he doesn’t play for an aggressive pressing side. However,
his 60.7 per cent accuracy when passing into the final third is a concern.
Another option would be Joaquin Correa. The Argentine grew into his debut season with
Lazio, showing an ability to combine effectively with teammates in advanced areas, completing
an impressive 89 per cent of his passes to the final third. He also averaged three shots
per game and demonstrated an eye for a subtle through pass, completing 0.6 of them per 90
minutes. However, his defensive numbers suggest he wouldn’t be naturally suited to fulfilling
the pressing aspects of the Firmino role. Kai Havertz is perhaps the best fit in a purely
positional sense – he was deployed as a false nine by Leverkusen on multiple occasions
last term. The German is also the most prolific finisher we could find. He averages 2.5 shots
at an exceptional rate of accuracy, hitting the target 50.6 per cent of the time. This
explains why he scores 0.5 goals per 90 minutes despite rarely being utilised as an out-and-out
striker. Havertz also averages more passes and more passes to the final third than Firmino,
not to mention slightly more dribbles and similar defensive stats.
However, our pick for this role is Nabil Fekir. The Frenchman was heavily linked with a move
to Liverpool last season, and while the transfer didn’t transpire, it’s easy to see why
the club were interested in him. An attacking midfielder who can also operate in more advanced
positions, he averages more passes to the final third than any player analysed here,
while his accuracy of 82.8 per cent is solid. He also averages 3.8 shots per 90 minutes
and hits the target 47.8 per cent of the time – in both cases, his numbers are higher
than Firmino’s. Fekir is a playmaker who thrives in central
areas, can finish as well as create chances, and – with 6.9 defensive duels, 2 interceptions
and 1.8 opposition half ball recoveries – he isn’t afraid to get involved in pressing.
Considering all of this, as well as the recent reports suggesting Lyon are willing to let
him leave for a reduced transfer fee of around £30 million, and Liverpool would be within
reason not only to resurrect their interest in him, but to make him their Firmino alternate.
While Klopp’s favoured system does not make use of a natural number nine, Liverpool may
want to consider signing one this summer. Whenever their primary approach doesn’t
work, they tend to look towards Origi as an attacking troublemaker late in games, utilising
his aerial ability, nose for goal and capacity for making something from nothing in the final
third. The Belgian is a good squad option, but there are better players out there that
could perform the same function. One possible option is Dodi Lukebakio. The
21-year-old had his best scoring season yet in 2018/19, averaging 0.4 goals per 90 minutes
on loan at Fortuna Dusseldorf. While a former winger, he clearly knows how to find the net,
averaging 2.5 shots at an excellent accuracy rate of 55.2 per cent. Aerially he has similar
numbers to Origi, though he is better on the ground, succeeding with 10 per cent more of
his attempted dribbles. Another, more establish option would be Sebastien
Haller. The 25-year-old enjoyed another positive season at Frankfurt, averaging 0.6 goals per
90 minutes. Not only does he hit the target with 56.3 per cent of his shots, but he is
powerful in the air, winning 6.9 aerial duels per 90 at a success rate of 48.9 per cent.
This would be a good outlet for Liverpool late on in games, as they can play long or
fire crosses towards him should opposition defences resist their intense pressing and
counter-attacking game. However, Haller would likely be an expensive target, and it wouldn’t
make sense to spend big on a player that doesn’t fit Klopp’s first-choice system.
Our pick for this position, therefore, is Wout Weghorst.
Like Haller, Weghorst is aerially dominant, winning 44.2 per cent of his aerial duels.
However, he doesn’t quite have the same reputation, so may not cost quite as much
as his French counterpart. He averages 1.9 shots and 0.5 goals per 90 minutes, though
his most eye-catching finishing stat regards his accuracy – he finds the target with
58.7 per cent of his shots. On top of that, he is fairly quick for a player standing at
6ft 6ins, and is capable of pressing the opposition, as his 3.8 defensive duels, 2.2 interceptions
and 1.8 opposition-half ball recoveries on average can confirm.
Liverpool have a strong squad, but with a genuine alternate to Firmino and a different
type of striker to use in games where they require tactical change to break down defences,
they could be even more potent going forward next season. Here is what our team would look
like. Since Klopp arrived at Anfield, 75% of Liverpool’s
signings have been between the age of 23 and 26, while few involved an excessive financial
outlay by modern Premier League standards. Fekir and Weghorst, who suit the club’s
model on and off the pitch, would be sensible transfers.