Want your favourite planet in glorious detail on your wall? Stay tuned for that at the end
of the video. On the 4th of March, 2022, a mysterious rocket booster crashed into the
surface of the Moon. This event was watched by the scientific community, who had been tracking
the booster since 2015 while it silently orbited our planet. When it crashed it formed a strange
double-crater that defied precedent or obvious explanation. However, other watchers were more
curious about its origin. Who had launched it? No nation claimed to have done so.
My mind when I heard about this was immediately caught up in the idea of secret government
programs, or shady corporations launching pirate satellites for a quick profit. But
as I delved into it, the origins of this mystery rocket actually opened my eyes to an unexpected
issue – one that was deeply troubling. It speaks of an era fast incoming, where rather than space
being a place of peaceful exploration, it might be rife with danger and conflict. Hopefully, this is
something that can be avoided. But the first step is to understand what is happening up there. I’m
Alex McColgan, and you’re watching Astrum. Join with me today as we learn the likely origins of
this rocket, and the unsettling implications its existence casts on space exploration in general.
To begin with, figuring out the origins of the rocket booster – known as WE0913A – is actually
one of the simpler aspects of this mystery. And no, it’s likely not the jettison from a secret
government program. While admittedly, I don’t have insider knowledge about the classified space
programs of all the nations around the world, it turns out secret space launches are surprisingly
difficult to achieve, making this explanation unlikely. This is because for the last 70 years,
after the invention of the Inter-Continental Ballistic Missile, countries have become
very invested in knowing when other countries are launching rockets. The great fear during the Cold
War was that America and Russia would send nuclear missiles at each other. As such, it was a matter
of survival for each to know what the other nation was doing. They did this with radar, but also with
spy networks. When Russia launched Sputnik 1 in 1957, American intelligence already knew about it,
even if they didn’t pass this information on to the American people. But since then, radar systems
and satellites have become so good, they are able to spot launches within minutes. It’s essentially
impossible now to send a rocket up without someone noticing. Rockets are, after all, quite difficult
to hide, and even if you did somehow manage to launch it undetected, space is incredibly open.
And even if governments missed it, amateur astronomers across the globe watch the skies
as a hobby. It wouldn’t take very long before someone spotted it. You’d likely have more success
disguising your secret spacecraft as something it wasn’t. If you sent it up disguised as an innocent
satellite, or had it fall off a rocket as if it were simple space junk, you could let it drift
through space in plain sight, yet hidden. If our mystery rocket was something like this, that might
make more sense. However, we likely know its true origin, thanks to a little bit of mathematics.
Independent astronomers as far back as 2015 had watched the path of the mystery rocket,
and by plotting its course they were able to calculate the reverse of its trajectory. By
doing so, they could work out which nations it had passed over at various points in its past.
While initially this led them to believe that it was a stage of a SpaceX rocket,
this theory was later supplanted by a much more probable explanation that it had belonged to the
Chinese Chang’e 5-T1 mission. The mystery rocket’s orbit passed over China on the
same day as the Chang’e 5-T1 launch, and matched its trajectory exceptionally well.
There was additional evidence. University of Arizona students at the Space Domain Awareness lab
used a RAPTORS telescope to take a spectroscopic survey of the mystery rocket. Essentially, by
looking at it through a telescope and evaluating the type of paint used on it from the light
reflecting off it, they were able to compare it to existing records and identify that it was a closer
match to China’s rocket style than SpaceX’s. These corroborating pieces of evidence led astronomer
Jonathan McDowell to claim a 90% certainty that the mystery rocket had belonged to China.
But China denied it. When asked by journalists, foreign ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said the
following: “According to China’s monitoring, the upper stage of the Chang’e-5 mission
rocket has fallen through the Earth’s atmosphere in a safe manner and burnt
up completely. China’s aerospace endeavours are always in keeping with international law.”
Some astronomers believe China was innocently mistaken here. It is also possible that China
wasn’t telling the truth. But if the evidence is so strongly against them, why deny it?
It’s perhaps that last line that offers the vital clue – China does not want to be seen as in breach
of international law. And this is where I start to get annoyed. Not necessarily with China,
but with something which is a worldwide problem. You might not be aware of international space law.
It does actually exist, although it is a little patchy. It is made up of a number of treaties
that various countries have signed and ratified over the years, such as the Rescue Agreement,
highlighting nations’ responsibility to help astronauts in distress if they’re able,
or the Outer Space Treaty of 1963, which enshrines in international law the right of all nations
to explore space, makes states responsible for all space-related activities of their citizens,
and maintains that space objects like the Moon should only be used for peaceful purposes.
It is the treaty that forbids any nation from placing nuclear weapons in space, which is
probably why there are no orbiting satellites with nuclear weapons platforms up there today,
ready to rain destruction down on the planet. It makes states liable for damages that they
cause in space, and requires them to avoid harmful contamination of celestial objects.
It’s likely this last article that China is trying to not run afoul of. While there was
likely little harm done by the mystery rocket crashing into the moon, it’s not a good look
to accidentally lose track of your rocket stages and have them crash into things later.
If any bacteria were on the rocket, that could cause contamination. Even worse, if the rocket
part had crashed into a satellite, or if there one day ends up being lunar bases on the Moon and the
rocket part had hit one of those, then it would have meant China had broken international law.
But why do I suggest that this will lead to an era of conflict? After all, while it’s disappointing,
it’s certainly not that surprising a nation would try to hide things to get ahead or avoid looking
bad. And I take issue with more than just the fact that there’s an increasing amount
of space debris circling in space, although this is becoming an increasing problem. No, the true
cause for alarm is the fact that space law is so unregulated that a rocket’s origin was a mystery
in the first place. International law is currently insufficient to ensure the peaceful exploration
of space in the years to come. What exists is noble, but rife with holes and ambiguities.
Let’s take for example the Outer Space Treaty – one of the foundational treaties
for the peaceful use of space – signed by 117 countries around the world, including the US,
China, Russia, and essentially anyone else with a space program. It states that “outer space is
not subject to national appropriation by claim of sovereignty, by means of use or occupation,
or by any other means”. But this is actually being somewhat ignored. How does this idea square with
the desires of an increasing number of nations to set up bases and mine places like the Moon?
If you set up a base on a planet or Moon, that certainly sounds like you’re trying to stake a
claim to at least part of it, which sounds a lot like sovereignty. Claiming resources
certainly appears to me to be appropriation. The US Artemis accords, signed by 23 countries now,
attempts to get around this by having signees legally state that they’re not appropriating
any of the resources they extract from the Moon, but other nations claim that this is nonsense.
The American interpretation has been perceived by some as just a new version of the enclosure
movement of Britain in the 18th century, where Britain just claimed land as its own.
Depending on which legal interpretation is carried out in the end, there is a risk that
any nation that attempts to claim resources from the Moon might be in breach of international law.
But clearly, this is not slowing anyone down. Furthermore, consider the Outer Space Treaty’s
article about space being a place for peaceful purposes. No nuclear weapons or weapons of mass
destruction are allowed in space. However, this applies only to weapons of mass destruction,
which leaves a lot of wiggle room for weapons of middling destruction or lower. And such ideas are
being currently explored. In 2003, a full 40 years after the Outer Space Treaty was signed,
the US Air Force proposed an idea of placing 20-foot long tungsten rods – nicknamed “rods
from god” – into orbital launchers that could fire them from space. These falling rods would drop at
speeds reaching Mach 10, hitting with the force of a small tactical nuke but without the radiation,
would launch far less detectably than a missile, arriving in half the time,
and would be almost impossible to defend against. Fortunately, rather than rods, it was the idea
that was dropped as it was too expensive, but not because it encroached on international law.
With civilisation’s increasing reliance on satellites for business, communication, banking,
navigation, and a host of other applications, weapons in space are becoming increasingly common.
Satellites are increasingly becoming a point of vulnerability in a nation’s security. Various
countries are developing anti-satellite (ASAT) missiles or defences against ASAT missiles,
to threaten others’ interests and defend their own. This is a complex issue, but one that carries
unexpected dangers. Space conflict of this kind is not as intuitive as you might think.
When Russia tested one such ASAT missile on a test satellite of its own,
it sent thousands of pieces of debris into orbit around the planet. Some of these
pieces could remain in space for years, and if they collide with other debris or satellites,
those in turn could shatter, creating a cascade effect collectively known as Kessler Syndrome.
If such conflict became widespread, it could be an end to satellites in space for everyone.
Interestingly, Russia and China have pushed for a treaty known as PAROS that bans all
weapons in space of any kind, but this is being stonewalled by the US, who favour
the approach laid out by US President Theodore Roosevelt; “Speak softly, and carry a big stick”.
Arguably, some force in space might actually be necessary, adding to the complexity of the
situation. To say that there is a lack of trust between the big powers at the moment
might be a bit of an understatement. Beyond that, in January 2018, a US company called
Swarm was denied permission by the US Federal Communications Commission to launch 4 satellites.
Swarm went to India and launched them anyway, without government approval. There were legal
ramifications for this – the FCC later fined Swarm $900,000 for their actions – but it sets
a concerning precedent as space becomes more and more available for companies with large wallets
and few scruples. It may one day become profitable to participate in illegal space ventures.
Some degree of policing, with some degree of force to back it up, might become necessary to protect
the interests of legitimate or scientific space farers. Sadly, as has been noted by many analysts,
there is a perceived preference from countries on all sides towards rules that “promote freedom
for their own actions while curtailing the activities and aspirations of others”. And yet,
space needs greater, global regulation. If the nations of the world can’t agree on some kind
of framework for ongoing exploration, there is a risk that space exploration becomes a wild west,
rife with conflict, and with the more noble aim of scientific advancement left by the wayside.
This would be a waste, as with a little extra work, international law could become robust enough
to prevent this. What has been agreed so far shows promise. One treaty, known as the Moon Treaty,
lays out the environment of the Moon as the common heritage of mankind, to be used only for
peaceful purposes, and only to be exploited at the careful agreement according to an international
regulatory regime. However, not many nations have signed up to this treaty – none of the nations
that actually have their own significant launch capabilities, like the US, Russia or China – which
leaves this treaty largely ineffectual. There so far has not been any agreement
on what this regime should look like, nor what the “common heritage of mankind” actually means.
If space is going to be a safe place for future generations, this needs to change.
More discussion needs to happen on these topics, to reign in future illegal activity or escalating
space-based arms races. Groups that send rockets into space need to keep track of them. Ultimately,
the nations of the so-called civilised world need to come to more agreement on these issues.
At the end of the day, we don’t want to live in a world where we have mystery rockets crashing
into the moon . We want to live in a world where space is appreciated for its alien beauty, where
its dangers and mechanisms are purely natural and understood, and the moons and planets out there
can be explored peacefully and fairly (rather than fought over and ultimately destroyed).
Maybe, as a people, we need to grow up not just technologically, but civilly too.
Preserving the beauty of space is something that I’m passionate about. I love the planets and moons
of our solar system. Each has a distinct personality and houses incredible vistas.
Do you have a favourite? Let me know in the comments what your favourite is.
Mine is Earth, and I have captured its awe-inspiring beauty and hung it on my wall
with my Displate collection. I’ve made designs for these unique metal posters in 2 different
styles for 11 different objects in our solar system; I really love how each of them turned
out. You can see zoomed-in planet horizons, or full planetary disks and their accompanying moons,
all based on real imagery (where it was available). Maybe you will love it and
want it for your own home, but it can equally be a great gift for someone who loves space.
If you’re interested in supporting the channel and owning an Astrum Displate, then follow my link in
the description below for a 20% discount on your next purchase. Go check it out!
Thanks for watching. If you want other videos about space enigmas,
check out my playlist here. Also, a big thanks to my patrons and members for supporting the
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check the links in the description below. All the best, and see you next time.