In this video we're gonna catch up with what's been happening with Bitcoin and
the outlook for 2019. Hello, I'm David Jones from capital.com and as we
haven't done a Bitcoin video for a while, I thought it might be time to catch up
with the recent movements and the recent news of what's been happening with the
cryptocurrency. There's been very little volatility in recent months. We'll take a
look at the numbers and the charts in a minute and the outlook for this year.
We've not really had much in the way of major news, you know. We've had news that
various exchange-traded funds' bids to make it easier to invest in Bitcoin have been
refused by the SEC, the U.S. regulator. And maybe there's somewhat
peculiar news over recent days that the founder of a crypto exchange in
Canada has unfortunately died and nobody actually knows what the passkey for the
exchange is and it's ended up with about a hundred and forty million dollars being
locked up in this exchange and can't be accessed. Stories like that clearly do
not help the credibility and the hope that crypto currencies go mainstream.
So there's been no real, you know, earth-shattering news for Bitcoin
in recent months. I think that's maybe why it's being just stuck in this
range. But let's catch up, let's catch up with the medium term, the recent
history for Bitcoin, then take a look at the charts to see what's been going on.
Look at some big levels and see what we can figure out, what could happen for the
rest of 2019. Let's have a look at some of the headline numbers for Bitcoin.
So the high was reached, seems a long time ago now, but 17th of
December, 2017, when it got to $19,700
The recent low, almost a year later, just at the end of this, of 2018, we saw the price
trade as low as 3,100, so the performance numbers the last twelve months to the
end of January 2019, the price is down 66 percent. The last six months it's
down 55% and just in the last three months the price is down 46%. So over
those time frames there has been no signs of any strength coming into Bitcoin.
Let's take a look at the charts. So here in the last couple of years for
Bitcoin, let's just remind ourselves of the major phases that the boom and
corresponding bust. So it was in the last few months of 2017 when the mania
really gripped and we saw it trading from around about what, $3000 in September.
These are daily candles that we're
looking at and you can see it rarely had days when it went down. It wouldn't last
long, there was plenty of buying into the dips and then we have the push up into
mid-December where we set those all-time highs. Of course since then sentiment
changed. It's really in the first two to three months of 2018, when we really saw it under
pressure and it did seem to find some sort of stability ahead of $6,000.
That was the low, pretty much hit in early February 2018. And this whole 5800-6,000 level
did a good job for about eight months. After that.. after those February
lows.. but again in November we can see right at the edge here, it starts
breaking lower. So this break of a big support sparked off another sell-off in
Bitcoin towards the end of 2018 and bringing us right up to date, this is
where we are now at the time of recording. So into 2019 the market has been
fairly flat, trading around 3400. Let's just zoom into what's been going on recently.
So in the last couple of months we've seen the volatility just dry up,
okay. Compared to other markets, it's still pretty volatile. We saw a move from
these December lows at 3,100 up above 4000, so a 30 percent move in a little
over a week, a week and a half. So it's still a volatile market when you compare
it to more established markets. But by Bitcoin's historical values, we're really
not seeing that much movement week to week. So we're trapped pretty much in
this.. in this wide sideways range. Whenever we see the market push up
towards above 4,000, towards 4,500, the sellers come back in
But there's still an appetite to be a buyer on weakness towards the 3000 mark
So at the moment it's just trapped and there's no signs really of this changing
These lows are important if we go back to September 2017, so we can see on the
way up in September it did drop down very briefly towards 3000.
The buyers came back out and lifted the market up and for now I think this is a
level to watch on Bitcoin. People have got used to 3,000 being the floor
If we saw a break below there, I think the risk is for another sell-off again, you know.
Maybe targeting the lows from earlier in 2017 and until we get
above 4,500 then the range still stands
So since those highs in December of 2017, the all-time high just shy of $20,000,
the slide has been pretty relentless. It's down over 12 months, down over 6
months, down over 3 months. We have seen, as when we're looking at the charts,
there's some stability ahead of the 3,000 dollar mark for Bitcoin in recent months
At the moment you know if we say, well, is it gonna half or is it gonna double
in 2019, I'd be tempted to say what, well, neither of those, you know. Chances are
that for now we're just gonna be bumping along in this sideways range until I
think, if we got a break of $3,000, that important support over recent weeks and
also from September of 2017, it could provoke more selling as people throw in
the towel, you know. Or if we see news where Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies
go more mainstream, maybe that will put some excitement
back into the price. But there's also the argument, maybe $3,000-3,500
is the fair value for Bitcoin. We had the
bubble last year. We've had the crash and maybe about $3,500
is where it's gonna be and there's no rule out there that says it
needs to be more volatile and move around. So, so far at least, I think we're
expecting more of the same in the months ahead for Bitcoin. We know the levels to
watch and if things get a bit more exciting we'll come back and look at it
in a bit more detail. We'll start wrapping things up there.
As usual, if you've got a different opinion, if you think Bitcoin is going to, I think,
a million is the most ambitious forecast I saw today when I was having a look
online. So there's somebody saying that eventually it's gonna get to it.
Then other people are saying it's going to go to zero. Whatever your view, it'd be
interesting to have a conversation in the comments down there. If you liked the
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But for this update and look ahead for Bitcoin, we'll wrap things up there
So from me, David Jones, and capital com good luck with your trading!