The 2020 presidential election is set to be one of the closest...
...and ugliest in modern American history
Donald Trump is corruption in the flesh
You got a choice between sleepy Joe and crazy Bernie
We cannot continue having a president...
...who is a pathological liar
Donald Trump, determined not to go down as a one-term president...
...is firing up his base
The Democrats are desperate to pick the candidate most likely to beat him
But how can they know who that is?
We cannot continue with Trump...
...in the office of the president of the United States
Poll after poll shows that the overriding priority...
...for most Democrats is beating Donald Trump in the 2020 election
Would this work against Trump, could this beat Trump...
...would this get Trump out of the White House?
Even if that candidate doesn’t completely share their political views
Donald Trump is a stronger candidate than his low approval rating suggests
Generally, incumbent presidents...
...who are dealing with very strong economies...
...are in almost unbeatable positions for re-election
He filed his re-election-campaign paperwork the day he got sworn in
No president has ever done that
He’s been running for re-election from day one
Despite three years of political tumult...
...a lack of serious legislative accomplishments...
...and an impeachment trial...
...Donald Trump looks poised for a roughly 50:50 shot at re-election
We will keep that beautiful, beautiful White House
We will keep it
But those fighting to lead the Democrats...
...are divided over what to offer Americans in Trump’s place
You’ve got Joe Biden, the former vice-president
Bernie Sanders, the democratic socialist
Elizabeth Warren, the wonkish reformer
Pete Buttigieg, the former mayor
Michael Bloomberg, the self-made self-funding billionaire
And Amy Klobuchar, the moderate Midwesterner
Candidates fight it out in a series of state primaries and caucuses...
...to be the Democratic victor
Who could be Donald Trump’s most forceful foe?
The best place to start...
...is to look at how Barack Obama won the presidency in 2008 and 2012
Barack Obama won the presidency...
...by creating a coalition that had never been created before
We have the most diverse coalition of Americans...
...that we’ve seen in a long, long time
Barack Obama united a diverse range of groups
They are black and white...
...Latino and Asian and Native American
He brought in young, old...
...rich and poor...
...college-educated whites...
...and did well enough with white, working-class voters
It was part message, part motivation...
...part wanting to get past the eight years of Bush
And he balanced somewhat liberal positions...
...with a pragmatic streak as a candidate
The so-called “Obama coalition”...
...has taken on an almost mythical significance for Democrats
Hillary Clinton tried to replicate it in 2016...
...and failed
Hillary Clinton lost support among African-American voters...
...but they were more importantly less likely to turn out...
...than they were in 2012
Her losses among white, working-class voters...
...in the Midwestern states were particularly harmful
The right votes in the right places are what counts
In 2016 Hillary Clinton actually won the popular vote by almost 3m
But she lost the election because in America...
...presidents aren’t directly elected...
...by the people who vote for them
Voters actually determine which candidate...
...will get the support of their state...
...in the electoral college process
The bigger the state’s population...
...the more votes it has to decide the presidency
In almost every state...
...the party that wins the state’s popular vote...
...gets all of the state’s electoral college votes
Hillary Clinton won huge margins of voters...
...in large states like New York and California
Clinton won almost 2m more votes than Trump in New York...
...which translated to her winning 29 electoral college votes
She lost by slim margins in crucial states in the Midwest
Clinton lost Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania...
...by nearly 78,000 votes
Yet it cost her 46 electoral college votes, and the election
The battle in 2020 will be played out...
...in the same three states in the Midwest
Barack Obama was victorious in all three states in 2008 and 2012
Recreating the Obama coalition...
...is still the Democrats’ best bet to beat Trump
It’s a low-risk strategy...
...that has proven successful in the past
A majority of college-educated whites...
...are almost guaranteed to vote for Democrats in 2020...
...whoever the candidate is
The real challenge is to appeal to the two groups...
...that cost Clinton the presidency...
...working-class whites and African-Americans
Joe Biden performs well in primary polling...
...among both African-Americans and among white, working-class voters
He is the candidate that’s best placed to reassemble the Obama coalition
While Joe Biden has enjoyed the most support from African-Americans...
...his popularity with this group is falling
It’s questionable whether or not...
...he could turn out non-whites and young voters...
...who frankly aren’t very enthused by his campaign...
...but have just supported him as a sort of default...
...Obama-esque option in the primaries
Biden is going to be defending Obama...
...and his ability to explain that record and defend it...
...and compare it to Trump’s...
...is going to be what’s going to decide the election...
...in a Trump-Biden race
I just don’t think Biden is anywhere near as compelling...
...a communicator as Obama was
Poor kids are just as bright and just as talented...
...as white kids
If Joe Biden won’t turnout the youth...
...could a younger candidate unlock the Obama coalition?
What a night!
Pete Buttigieg, former mayor of a mid-sized city in Indiana...
...enjoyed an unexpected primary surge
It’s clear Joe Biden sees Pete Buttigieg as a threat...
...mocking his inexperience in a recent campaign ad
Joe Biden helped save the auto industry...
...which revitalised the economy of the Midwest
Pete Buttigieg revitalised the sidewalks of downtown South Bend
While some call Buttigieg’s charisma Obama-like...
...recreating Obama’s coalition is likely to be out of reach for him
Buttigieg has almost zero visible African-American support anywhere
And Pete Buttigieg actually performs worse than Joe Biden...
...with the young
His lack of support with key voters...
...means Donald Trump would likely beat him in a general election
One moderate believes there’s another way...
...to build a coalition to beat Donald Trump
Minnesota senator Amy Klobuchar...
...is forgoing Barack Obama’s diverse coalition...
...in favour of a simpler strategy
She’s pinning all of her hopes on winning over...
...the white, working-class voters in the key states in the Midwest...
...on which the election hinges
She represents a sort of middle ground, middle risk, middle-reward strategy...
...for the presidency in which she simply wins well in the Midwest...
...which is crucial for the electoral college and thus wins the presidency
Amy Klobuchar polls closely against Donald Trump in a theoretical match-up...
...and has a history of state victories to back up her campaign
She’s won in her state of Minnesota...
...statewide elections for US Senate by overwhelming margins
And she’s won in rural areas...
...she’s won in suburban areas and she’s won in urban areas
She truly understands the Midwest
And so I think she would automatically put...
...Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin in play...
...in a way no other candidate would
Yet nationally among Democrats, Amy Klobuchar polls badly
It’s very hard to run for president...
...and not be a national figure when you start
And because of that she has had real trouble raising money...
...and convincing donors and voters...
...that she has a path to being the nominee
Moderates Biden, Buttigieg and Klobuchar...
...are advocating for small repairs to improve America...
...rather than revolution
If you are tired of the extremes in our politics...
...you have a home with me
Yet an extreme populist position...
...is exactly what progressives Bernie Sanders...
...and Elizabeth Warren are banking on for success
They have radical plans for the government...
...and for a radically different coalition to get them there
First, change the rules in Washington
Two, change the rules in our economy
Now let’s go to the third one...
...change the rules in our politics
They think that they can juice turnout...
...among white, young, disaffected, working-class voters
The radicals argue these disaffected voters...
...have been neglected by the Democrats for years
They’re aiming to win them back...
...with class struggle and economic populism
I am prepared to stand with the working class of this country...
...and take on the greed and corruption of the corporate elite
Rather than the racial politics...
...that Donald Trump has put at the forefront of his campaigns
Local officials order police to release...
...dangerous criminal aliens to prey upon the public
Bernie Sanders’s strength is drawn from voters...
...who really want to blow up the system
The young and the white, working class...
...are particularly embracing his approach
Sanders is running fully on Medicare for all...
...fully on Green New Deal, fully on raising taxes...
...and big government
Are you ready for a political revolution?
It’s a high-risk strategy but could conceivably work
If they can sell their transformative message...
...this strategy should not be underestimated
Surprisingly around 19% of Republicans...
...have economically progressive views
If Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren succeed...
...in making politics more about economics than race...
...some of these voters might be ripe for the picking by Democrats
Yet their ideologically extreme positions...
...may energise Donald Trump’s supporters...
...to go out and vote against them
There are some big risks
The political-science research tells us that...
...a moderate candidate tends to do better in presidential elections
And that’s because both...
...they can pull some swing voters their way...
...and more importantly, they don’t inflame the passions...
...of the other party and get them to the polls
Warren and Sanders are talking about...
...tens of trillions of dollars of new spending...
...massive spending on all kinds of programmes
You’ll see Trump make Sanders or Warren...
...appear very extreme in terms of their proposals
I think he’s a communist...
...I think of communism when I think of Bernie
Sanders and Warren are betting that they’ll be better prepared...
...better able to sell their populist message to the people
But in an era when Donald Trump has proven pretty capable...
...of doing that already with anti-immigrant rhetoric...
...it is a hard sell indeed
And the late entry of Michael Bloomberg...
...a New Yorker, like Trump, a businessman, like Trump...
...and much, much richer than Trump, is unsettling the president
He doesn’t have the magic to do well. Little Michael will fail
I’m a New Yorker. I know how to take on...
...an arrogant conman like Donald Trump
He could spend one or two billion dollars...
...in the general election, basically evening out that financial advantage...
...that Trump will have as the incumbent
Yet Michael Bloomberg’s ability to deliver a Trump-beating strategy...
...like every other candidates’, appears flawed
Allegations tonight of sexism against Michael Bloomberg
Bloomberg is now a target...
...defending his controversial police policy of stop and frisk
With no perfect candidate...
...the Democrats’ best strategy is to keep voters focused...
...on Donald Trump’s failings rather than their own
If it ends up being a referendum...
...do you like Trump or not like Trump?
Trump can be beat
If it is a choice between what Trump’s presenting...
...and what the Democrats are offering...
...that’s where Trump has a good chance to get re-elected