Judy: While some of the votes
from last week's election are
still being counted, there is a
potential 2024 presidential
announcement on the horizon,
ensuring this will be another
busy week in politics.
Here to consider it all are our
regular politics Monday duo --
Amy Walter of the cook political
report with Amy Walter, and
Tamara Keith of NPR.
Hello to both of you.
I hate to remind you of this,
but last Monday when we were
together, there was a sense in
the atmosphere that Republicans
were going to do really well in
the election last week.
What happened?
Tamara: For most of the year
reap in talking about the fact
there were a lot of
crosscurrents.
That there are patterns and
normal patterns and of the
normal pattern would have a wave
and there were crosscurrents we
did not know what to do with.
Those crosscurrents caused waves
not to happen.
That's what happened.
And there are a lot of things
underlying that but for
instance, independents
traditionally in a midterm would
go against the party in power
and they didn't.
There were just a lot of things
that happened that ultimately
are pretty surprising.
The fact we are sitting here
today and we don't know with
100% certainty which party will
control the house is quite
surprising.
We knew it would take a long
time to count ballots, we knew
there would be races that WRE
not decided in California and
Oregon.
What we did not know is we would
still be waiting for them to
know the balance of power in the
house.
Judy: Dim across -- Democrats
did a lot better than people
expected.
Amy: The closest contests in the
country, Democrats won 75% of
those races.
Republicans had a couple of
challenges.
The first is there were not that
many "Easy seats to pick up.
Most of the seats they one in
2020 is where trump one.
They needed to win in districts
that Biden carried by a
significant margin, in some
cases by six or 10 points and
they were not able to do very
well among that group of voters.
In fact, they really
underperformed even relative to
the last four midterm elections.
Among that one group of voters.
You and I have talked about this
, the other day.
What is remarkable about this
election is how much it looks
like the 2020 election.
Literally, the vote share in the
senate races, house races, is
all most identical to what Biden
and trump got in those districts
in 2020.
The only senate seat Republicans
held onto that Biden carried is
Wisconsin.
In every other case, it was a
Democrat holding seats that
Biden won and Republicans
holding seats that trump won.
Judy: Except the calendar has
advanced forward.
Tamra, you watch the hill.
Republicans appear to be about
to take control but only by a
very small margin.
What will that mean for what can
and cannot get done?
Tamara: First there is the
leadership election Lisa was
talking about that is more
dramatic than expected and will
likely be more dramatic than
expected.
In a very real question of how
any person will be able to lead
a Republican conference that is
narrowly divided when there are
big contentions of the
conference who already heck no
party, who will not want to do
things like vote for bills to
fund the government and may not
want their leaders to allow
Republicans to vote for those
bills.
It will be interesting to see
how that plays out.
One question I have is whether
they will even be able to do
some of the message bills we
were expecting.
If you need 218 to pass a pure
message bill but you have
Republicans who have won in
district's that will be
competitive again two years from
now, they may not want to be on
the record voting for a total
ban on abortion or some of these
other possible message bills.
Judy: These are bills where the
party is saying this is where we
are on this issue.
Tamara: Yeah, this is what we
believe and, this is what we
would do if we controlled
everything into there was no
chance of a veto.
These are like generally bills
you can pass without any real
risk of it becoming law.
Which is why it is a message
bill.
Judy: What do you see in terms
of what we can expect to get
done in the house?
Or just in general?
Amy: I think for Democrats,
holding the senate was key for
keeping on pace, the white house
keeping on pace for federal
judgeships.
At this point, the Biden white
house tied with the trump white
house in terms of the number of
judges they have already been
able to appoint.
They could surpass that by
keeping the senate in democratic
hands.
There's also the question of
what does the white house do
when they don't control all
three branches?
There is a lot of talk right now
about the president focusing on
the things he has already
passed, the things that have
already been signed into law and
touting those paid remember we
have a prescription drug in a
fit that kicks in year.
They talked about it a lot on
the campaign trail but people
will not see it in reality until
next year.
Still a lot of projects going on
with the infrastructure bill.
Judy: Speaking of the president,
a lot of people are saying he is
in somewhat better shape and he
seems to suggest so in his news
conference the other day.
Conversely, there is a sense
that former president trump does
not seem to be in better shape
as a result of this.
What does that look like?
Tamara: There have been many
moments last six years where
president trump been against the
ropes and in an incredible
moment of weakness and wise
people in his party have been
saying he is an albatross and
trouble.
And yet, and yet someone like
bill Barr, for instance, his
former attorney general, who has
had nothing nice to say about
him the last two years, also
said if you were the nominee, he
would vote for him.
Out interviewing voters, that is
a lot of what you get, voters
who say he is divisive or maybe
he can't win, maybe we need
somebody else, but if he is the
nominee, I would support him.
Similarly with Biden.
A lot of voters I talked to say
gosh, he doesn't get a fair
shake, it is not fair, the media
are not fair to him.
I asked should he run again?
The long pause is so
excruciatingly long because they
don't think he should run again
by and large, but if you were
the nominee, they would vote for
him because the polarization is
very real.
Judy: And a lot of speculation
about whether former president
trump will announce tomorrow
night.
Amy: He needs to change the
narrative because everything
right now is being dumped onto
him.
All of the losses and the lack
of hitting expectations dumped
on trump.
He needs to change the
conversation and of course he
will be able to do that, we will
see for how long and what he
actually says.
Judy: A lot of people think this
will be the announcement
tomorrow night.
Tamara: But if he doesn't
announce it, it would be a sign
of weakness, because of he
doesn't, he has to admit the
midterms were horrible for him.
Judy: My head is exploding.
Amy Walter, Tamera Keith, thank
you.