On November 7th, 2015 the leaders of China and Taiwan came together in the first head
of state meeting since the 1949 Communist Revolution.
Their complicated split has caused an endless series of problems, the most serious of which
is the threat of China annexing Taiwan as its own.
So we wanted to know, what would happen if China and Taiwan went to war?
Well, it’s important to understand why China is set on reunifying with Taiwan.
The 1949 Revolution forced the standing Chinese government to retreat onto the island of Taiwan,
while communist forces took over mainland China, establishing the present day People’s
Republic of China.
Meanwhile, the retreated government in Taiwan maintained that THEY were still the legitimate
government of China.
Today, the primary question surrounding Taiwan's future is whether it will establish itself
as an independent cultural and political identity from China, or if mainland China will forcefully
reunify Taiwan into the People’s Republic.
This emphasis on reunification is even in China’s constitution.
It states that Taiwan is part of China, and that all Chinese people have a duty to reunify
the two.
On the other hand, Taiwan’s constitution prohibits changing the country’s borders
without legislative support and a public referendum.
Tensions were flared most recently in 2005, when China passed an “anti-secession law”
promising to use “non-peaceful means” to ensure that Taiwan not seek independence.
So what would happen if China decided to use those “non-peaceful means” to force occupy
Taiwan and, in their eyes, “reclaim it”?
Well, in terms of pure military alone, to say it is no contest would be an understatement.
Taiwan’s military ranks about 15th worldwide, on par with Canada.
But China has the third most powerful military in the world, with nearly 5 million active
troops compared to Taiwan’s roughly 3 million.
Moreover, China blows Taiwan away in their total number of military equipment like ships,
planes and tanks.
Perhaps China’s biggest advantage is financial, as they spend about 15 times as much as Taiwan
on defense, roughly 145 billion dollars a year.
But despite China’s military superiority, Taiwan may have a secret weapon: the United
States.
Now, it is important to note that technically, the US does not support Taiwanese independence.
But they also oppose further Chinese aggression in the region.
When the United States switched allegiances in 1979, from recognizing Taiwan as the legitimate
China to recognizing mainland China, they formed a diplomatic agreement with Taiwan.
In the Taiwan Relations Act, the US effectively promises to provide military equipment to
protect Taiwan, and to date, the US is Taiwan’s largest arms supplier.
During Barack Obama’s term, the US sold Taiwan nearly 20 billion dollars worth of
weapons.
While there is no DIRECT mutual defense treaty with Taiwan, it would not be uncharacteristic
for the US to help Taiwan in the face of unwarranted aggression.
Luckily, as evidenced by the recent head of state meeting, relations between Taiwan and
China have been improving.
Cooperation in transportation, communication, and commerce have brought them closer together,
making it considerably less likely that China launches an invasion.
With the uncertainty of American involvement, it would be a risky move.
If you want a more in-depth look at the full history behind why Taiwan and China hate each
other, check out our video.
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