Today I would like to
speak about the origin and
destiny of intelligence
in our universe.
I shall take this to include
the human race, even though
much of its behaviour throughout
history has been pretty
stupid and not calculated
to aid the survival of the
species.
We all know that, over
time, things tend to get
messy.
The second law of thermodynamics
says that a total amount
of disorder or entropy
always increases
over time.
However, there is a loophole
allowing a small system
to decrease its disorder
as long as it increases
the disorder of its surroundings
by an even greater amount
Our initially barren universe
has evolved remarkably
complex entities doing
just this as well as
reproducing.
We call these entities ëlife í
Information is at the
heart of life.
DNA passes the blueprints
of life between generations.
Evermore complex life
forms input information
from sensors such as eyes and
ears, process the information
in brains or other systems
to figure out how to act
and connect in the world by outputting
information to muscles
for example.
At some point during
our 13.8
billion years of cosmic
history, something
beautiful happened.
This information processing
got so intelligent that
life forms became conscious
Our universe has now
awoken, becoming aware
of itself.
Iíve given you a brief history
of intelligence.
Whatís next?
Some think that humanity
today is the pinnacle of
evolution, and that this
is as good as it gets
I disagree.
There ought to be something very
special about the boundary
conditions of our universe
and what can be more special
than that there is no boundary
And there should be no boundary
to human endeavour.
I think there is no qualitative
difference between the brain
of an earthworm and a computer
I also believe that evolution
implies there can be
no qualitative difference between
the brain of an earthworm and
that of a human.
It therefore follows that computers
can, in principle
emulate human intelligence
or even better it.
Up to now, computers
have obeyed Mooreís law which
says that computers double
their speed and memory capacity
every two years.
Human intelligence
may also increase because
of genetic engineering
but not so fast.
The result is that computers
are likely to overtake
humans in intelligence
at some point in the next
100 years.
When that happens, we will
need to ensure that our computers
have goals aligned with
ours.
Itís tempting to dismiss
a notion of highly intelligent
machines as mere science
fiction,
but this would be a mistake
and potentially our worst
mistake ever.
Artificial intelligence
research is now progressing
rapidly.
Recent landmarks, such
as self-driving cars
a computer winning at
Jeopardy, and the digital
personal assistants Siri
Google Now and Cortana
are merely symptoms of
an IT arms race.
A race fuelled by unprecedented
investments and building
on an increasingly mature
theoretical foundation.
Such achievements will probably
pale against what our coming
decades will bring.
The potential benefits are
huge.
Everything that civilisation
has to offer is a product
of human intelligence
We cannot predict what
we might achieve when
this intelligence is amplified
by the tools AI may provide
but the eradication
of war, disease and poverty
would be high on anyoneís list
Success in creating AI
would be the biggest event
in human history.
Unfortunately, it
might also be the last
unless we learn how to avoid
the risks.
In the near term, for example
world militaries are
considering starting an
arms race in autonomous
weapon systems that
can choose and eliminate
their own targets,
while the UN is debating
a treaty banning such
weapons.
Autonomous weapons proponents
usually forget to ask
the most important question
What is the likely end point
of an arms race, and is that
desirable for the human
race?
Do we really want cheap
AI weapons to become
the Kalashnikovs of tomorrow
sold to criminals and
terrorists on the black
market?
Given concerns about
long-term controllability
of evermore advanced
AI systems, shouldwe
arm them and turnover
our defence to them?
In 2010, computerised
trading systems created
a stock market flash
crash.
What would a computer-triggered
crash look like in the
defence arena?
The best time to stop the
autonomous weapons arms
race is now.
In the medium term, AI
may automate our jobs
to bring both great prosperity
and equality.
Looking further ahead
there are no fundamental
limits to what can be achieved
There is no physical law
precluding particles from
being organised in ways
that perform even more
advanced computations
than the arrangements of particles
in human brains.
An explosive transition
is possible, although
it may play out differently
than in the movies.
As Irving Good realised
in 1965
machines with superhuman
intelligence could
repeatedly improve their
design even further, triggering what
Vernon Vine called ëa
singularity í
One can imagine such
technology outsmarting
financial markets, out-inventing
human researchers,
out-manipulating human leaders
and potentially subduing
us with weapons we cannot
even understand.
Whereas the short-term impact
of AI depends on who
controls it, the long-term
impact depends on
whether it can be controlled
at all.
In short, the advent of super
intelligent AI would
be either the best or the worst
thing ever to happen to humanity
so we should plan ahead
If a superior alien
civilisation send
us a text message saying
ëWeíll arrive in a few
decades,í would we just
reply, ëOkay. Call us when you
get here. Weíll leave the
lights oní?
Probably not, but this is
more or less what has happened
with AI.
Little serious research
has been devoted to these issues
outside of a few small
non-profit institutes
Fortunately, this is now
changing.
Technology pioneers
Elon Musk, Bill Gates
and Steve Wozniak have
echoed my concerns, and
a healthy culture of risk
assessment and awareness of societal
implications is
begin to take root in the
AI community.
Many of the worldís leading
AI researchers recently
signed an open letter
calling for the goal of AI
to be redefined from
simply creating raw undirected
intelligence to creating
intelligence directed
at benefiting humanity
The Future of Life Institute
where I serve on the scientific
advisory board, has
just launched a global
research programme aimed
at keeping AI beneficial
When we invented fire, we
messed up repeatedly
then invented a fire extinguisher
With more powerful technology
such as nuclear weapons
synthetic biology
and strong artificial
intelligence, we
should instead plan ahead
and aim to get things right
the first time, because
it may be the only chance
we will get.
I am an optimist and donít
believe in boundaries
neither for what we can do
in our personal lives, nor
for what life and intelligence
can accomplish in our
universe.
This means that the brief history
of intelligence that
I have told you about
is not the end of the story
but just the beginning of
what I hope will be
billions of years of life
flourishing in the cosmos
Our future is a race between
the growing power of our technology
and the wisdom with which we
use it.
Letís make sure that
wisdom wins.
Thank you for listening.