15 TOMORROW.
HERE’S THOU CONVERSATION BEGAN.
>> ALL OF A SUDDEN AI IS
EVERYWHERE, PEOPLE ARE PLAYING
WITH IT ON THEIR PHONES.
IS THAT GOOD OR BAD?
>> SO I’VE BEEN THINK ABOUT AI
FOR A LONG TIME, SINCE I I WAS
IN COLLEGE.
IT WAS ONE OF THE THINGS THAT I
THOUGHT WOULD REALLY AFFECT THE
FUTURE DRAMATICALLY.
IT IS FUNDAMENTALLY PROFOUND IN
THAT THE SMARTEST CREATURES AS
FAR AS WE KNOW ON THIS EARTH ARE
HUMANS.
AS OUR DEFINING CHARACTERISTIC.
>> YES.
>> WE OBVIOUSLY ARE WEAKER THAN,
SAY, CHIMPANZEES AND LESS AGILE,
BUT WE ARE SMARTER.
SO, UH, NOW, WHAT HAPPENS WHEN
SOMETHING VASTLY SMARTER THAN
THE SMARTEST PERSON COMES ALONG
IN SILICON FORM?
IT’S VERY DIFFICULT TO PREDICT
WHAT WILL HAPPEN IN THAT
CIRCUMSTANCE. IT’S CALLED THE
SINGULARITY.
THE SINGULARITY LIKE A BLACK
HOLE BECAUSE YOU DON’T KNOW WHAT
HAPPENS AFTER THAT.
IT’S HARD TO PREDICT.
I THINK WE SHOULD BE CAUTIOUS
WITH AI AND WE SHOULD I THINK
THERE SHOULD BE SOME GOVERNMENT
OVERSIGHT BECAUSE IT AFFECTS THE
-- IT’S A DANGER TO THE PUBLIC. SO WHEN YOU HAVE THINGS THAT ARE
SO WHEN YOU HAVE THINGS THAT ARE
A DANGER TO THE PUBLIC, LIKE
LET’S SAY SO FOOD AND DRUG, THAT
WHY WE HAVE THE FOOD AND DRUG
ADMINISTRATION AND THE FEDERAL
AVIATION ADMINISTRATION, THE
FCC, WE HAVE THESE AGENCIES TO
OVERSEE THINGS THAT AFFECT THE
PUBLIC.
WHERE THEY COULD BE PUBLIC HARM.
AND YOU DON’T WANT COMPANIES
CUTTING CORNERS ON SAFETY. AND
THEN HAVING PEOPLE SUFFER AS A
RESULT.
SO, THAT’S WHY I’VE ACTUALLY FOR
A LONG TIME BAYNE STRONG
ADVOCATE OF AI REGULATION.
IT’S NOT FUN TO BE REGULATED.
IT’S SOMEWHAT OF A ARDUOUS TO BE
REGULATED.
I HAVE A LOT OF EXPERIENCE WITH
REGULATED INDUSTRIES BECAUSE
OBVIOUSLY AUTOMOTIVE IS HIGHLY
REGULATED.
YOU COULD FILL THIS ROOM WITH
ALL THE REGULATIONS THAT ARE
REQUIRED FOR A PRODUCTION CAR,
JUST IN THE UNITED STATES.
THEN THERE’S A WHEEL DIFFERENT
SET OF REGULATIONS IN EUROPE,
CHINA, AND THE REST OF THE
WORLD.
SO VERY FAMILIAR WITH BEING
OVERSEEN BY A LOT OF REGULATORS.
THE SAME THING IS TRUE WITH
ROCKETS.
YOU CAN’T JUST WILLY-NILLY SHOOT
ROCKETS OFF, NOT BIG ONES ANYWAY
BECAUSE THE FAA OVERSEES THAT.
AND THEN EVEN TO GET A LAUNCH
LICENSE THERE ARE PROBABLY HALF
A DOZEN OR MORE FEDERAL AGENCIES
THAT NEED TO APPROVE IT.
PLUS STATE AGESES.
SO IT’S IT’S, I’VE BEEN THROUGH
SO MANY REGULATORY SITUATIONS
IT’S INSANE.
YOU KNOW, SOMETIMES I, PEOPLE
THINK I’M SOME SORT OF
REGULATORY MAVERICK THAT SORT OF
DEFIES REGULATORS ON A REGULAR
BASIS, BUT THIS IS ACTUALLY NOT
THE CASE.
SO, IN, YOU KNOW, ONCE IN A BLUE
MOON, RARELY, I WILL DISAGREE
WITH REGULATORS BUT THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE TIME MY
COMPANIES AGREE WITH THE
REGULATIONS AND COMPLY.
SO I THINK WE SHOULD TAKE THIS
SERIOUSLY AND WE SHOULD HAVE A
REGULATORY AGENCY I THINK IT
NEEDS TO START WITH A GROUP THAT
INITIALLY SEEKS INSIGHT INTO AI,
THEN SOLICITS OPINION FROM
INDUSTRY, AND THEN HAS PROPOSED
RULEMAKING, AND THEN THOSE
RULES, YOU KNOW, WILL PROBABLY
HOPEFULLY BEGRUDGINGLY BE
ACCEPTED BY THE MAJOR PLAYERS IN
AI.
AND, UM, I THINK WE’LL HAVE A
BETTER CHANCE OF ADVANCED AI
BEING BENEFICIARY TO HUMANITY IN
THAT CIRCUMSTANCE.
>> ALL REGULATIONS START WITH A
PERCEIVED DANGER, PLANES FALL
OUT OF THE SCHOOL.
>> YES.
>> I DON’T THINK AN AVERAGE
PURSE PLANING WITH AI ON HIS
IPHONE PERCEIVES ANY DANGER.
CAN YOU JUST ROUGHLY EXPLAIN
WHAT YOU THINK THE DANGERS MIGHT
BE?
>> THE DANGER, REALLY, AI IS,
UM, PERHAPS MORE DANGEROUS THAN,
SAY, MISMANAGED AIR CRAFT DESIGN
OR PRODUCTION MAINTENANCE OR BAD
KA PRODUCTION IN THE SENSE THAT
IT HAS THE POTENTIAL, IT IS A
SMALL PROBABILITY, BUT IT IS NOT
TRIVIAL.
IT HAS THE POTENTIAL OF
CIVILIZATION DESTRUCTION.
THERE’S MOVIES LIKE TERMINATOR.
THE INTELLIGENCE WOULD BE IN THE
DATA CENTERS.
BUT I THINK PERHAPS WHAT YOU MAY
BE ALLUDING TO HERE IS THAT
REGULATIONS ARE REALLY ONLY PUT
INTO EFFECT AFTER SOMETHING
TERRIBLE HAS HAPPENED.
>> THAT CORRECT.
>> IF THAT THE CASE FOR AI, AND
WE ONLY PUT IN REGULATIONS AFTER
SOMETHING TERRIBLE HAS HAPPENED
IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO PUT THE
REGULATIONS IN PLACE.
THEY MAE BE OUT OF CONTROL AT
THAT POINT.
>> YOU THINK THAT REAL?
IT IS CONCEIVAL THAT AI COULD
TAKE CONTROL AND REACH A POINT
WHERE YOU COULDN’T TURN IT OFF
AND IT WOULD BE MAKING THE
DECISIONS FOR PEOPLE?
>> YEAH.
ABSOLUTELY.
>> ABSOLUTELY?
>> NO, THAT DEFINITELY THE WAY
THINGS ARE HEADED, FOR SURE.
I MEAN, UM, THINGS LIKES SAY,
CHAT GPT WHICH IS BASED ON GP4
FROM OPEN AI WHICH IS A COMPANY
I PLAYED A CRITICAL ROLE IN
CREATING, UNNORVLY --
>> BACK WHEN IT WAS A
NON-PROFIT.
>> YES.
UM, I MEAN, THE REASON OPEN AI
EXISTS AT ALL IS THAT LARRY
PAIGE AND I USED TO BE CLOSE
FRIEND AND I WOULD STAY AT HIS
HOUSE IN PALO ALTO AND I WOULD
TALK TO HIM LATE IN THE NIGHT
ABOUT AI SAFETY.
AT LEAST MY PERCEPTION WAS THAT
LARRY WAS NOT TAKING AI SAFETY
SERIOUSLY ENOUGH.
AND --
>> WHAT DID HE SAY ABOUT IT?
>> HE REALLY SEEMED TO BE ONE
SORT OF DIGITAL
SUPERINTELLIGENCE, BASICALLY A
DIGITAL GOD, IF YOU WILL, AS
SOON AS POSSIBLE.
>> HEY WANTED THAT?
>> YES.
HE’S MADE MANY PUBLIC STATEMENTS
EVER THE YEARS, THE WHOLE OF
GOOGLE IS WHAT’S CALLED AGI
ARTIFICIAL GENERAL INTELLIGENCE
OR ARTIFICIAL SUPERINTELLIGENCE.
I AGREE THERE’S GREAT POTENTIAL
FOR GOOD, BUT THERE’S ALSO
POTENTIAL FOR BAD.
IF YOU’VE FAT SOME RADICAL NEW
TECHNOLOGY YOU WANT TO TAKE
ACTIONS, MAXIMIZE PROBABLY WILL
DO GOOD, MINIMIZE PROBABLY IT
WILL DO BAD THINGS.
>> YES.
>> IT CAN’T JUST BE JUST GO, YOU
KNOW, BARRELING FORWARD AND HOPE
FOR THE BEST.
AND THEN AT ONE POINT I SAID
WHAT ABOUT, YOU KNOW, WE GOTTA
MAKE SURE HUMANITY’S OKAY HERE. [LAUGHTER]
[LAUGHTER]
AND, UM, AND THEN HE CALLED ME A
SPESCEST.
>> DID HE USE THAT TERM NONE YES.
YES. S I SAID YES, I’M A THERE WERE
S I SAID YES, I’M A THERE WERE SPECIST, YOU GOT ME.
SPECIST, YOU GOT ME.
WHAT ARE YOU?
I’M FULLY A SPECIST.
BUSTED.
UM.
UM, THAT WAS HIS LAST STRAW.
AT THE TIME GOOGLE HAD A DEEP
MIND SO GOOGLE AND DEEP MIND HAD
THREE QUARTERS OF ALL THE AI
TALENT IN THE WORLD.
THEY OBVIOUSLY HAD A LOT OF MAIN
AND MORE COM COMPUTERS THAN
ANYONE ELSE.
WE’RE IN A UNI POLAR WORLD HERE
WHERE THERE’S ONE COMPANY THAT
HAS CLOSE TO A MONOPOLY ON AI
TALENT AND COMPUTERS, LIKE
SCALED COMPUTING, AND THE PERSON
WHO’S IN CHARGE DOESN’T SEEM TO
CARE ABOUT SAFETY.
THIS IS NOT GOOD. VERN THEN I
THOUGHT WHAT’S.
THE FURTHEST THING FROM GOOGLE
WOULD BE LIKE A NON-PROFIT THAT
IS FULLY OPEN.
BECAUSE GOOGLE WAS CLOSED AND
FOR-PROFIT.
THE OPEN AI, AN OPEN SOURCE,
TRANSPARENT SO PEOPLE KNOW
WHAT’S GOING ON.
>> YES.
>> WE DON’T WANT TO HAVE, I’M
NORMALLY IN FAVOR OF FOR-PROFIT.
WE DON’T WANT THIS TO BE
FOR-PROFIT MAXIMIZING DEMON FROM
HELL THAT JUST NEVER STOPS.
>> RIGHT.
>> SO THAT’S HOW OPEN AI --
>> YOU WANT SPECIST INCENTIVES
HERE.
>> YES.
WE WANT PRO-HUMAN, THE FUTURE,
GOOD FOR THE HUMANS BECAUSE
WE’RE HUMANS.
>> SO YOU CAN YOU JUST, JUST FOR
PEOPLE WHO HAVEN’T THOUGHT THIS
THROUGH AND AREN’T FAMILIAR WITH
IT, AND THE COOL PARTS OF
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE ARE
OBVIOUS, WRITE YOUR COLLEGE
PAPER FOR YOU, WRITE A LIMERICK
ABOUT YOURSELF.
THERE’S A LOT THERE THAT FUN AND
USEFUL.
BUT CAN YOU BE MORE PRECISE
ABOUT WHAT’S POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS AND SCARY?
LIKE, WHAT COULD IT DO?
WHAT SPECIFICALLY ARE YOU WORRY
ABOUT.
>> THE PEN IS MIGHTIER THAN THE
SWORD.
IF YOU HAVE A SUPER INTELLIGENT
AI THAT IS CAPABLE OF WRITING
INCREDIBLY WELL AND IN A WAY
THAT IS VERY INFLUENTIAL, YOU
KNOW, CONVINCING, AND IS
CONSTANTLY FIGURING OUT WHAT IS
MORE CONVINCING TO PEOPLE OVER
TIME.
AND THEN ENTER SOCIAL MEDIA, FOR
EXAMPLE, TWITTER, BOTTLES
FACEBOOK AND OTHERS, YOU KNOW,
AND POTENTIALLY MANIPULATES
PUBLIC OPINION A WAY THAT IS
VERY BAD, UM, HOW WOULD WE EVEN
KNOW?
>> HOW WOULD SO EVEN KNOW?
SO, TO SUM UP IN THE WORDS OF
ELON MUSK FOR ALL HUMAN HISTORY,
HUMAN BOWINGS HAVE BEEN THE
SMARTEST BEINGS ON THE PLANET.
NOW, HUMAN BEINGS HAVE CREATED
SOMETHING THAT IS FAR SMARTER
THAN THEY ARE.
AND THE CONSEQUENCES OF THAT ARE
IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT.
AND THE PEOPLE WHO CREATED IT
DON’T CARE.
IN FACT, AS HE PUT IT, GOOGLE
FOUNDER LARRY PAGE, A FORMER
REND OF HIS, IS LOOKING TO BUILD
A, QUOTE, DIGITAL GOD AND BELIEVES THAT ANYBODY WHO’S
BELIEVES THAT ANYBODY WHO’S
WORRIED ABOUT THAT IS A SPECST
IS LOOKING OUT FOR HUMANS FIRST.
AT THE END, Y SAID THE REAL
PROBLEM WITH AI IS NOT SIMPLY
THAT IT WILL JUMP THE BOUNDARIES
AND BECOME AUTONOMOUS AND YOU
CAN’T TURN IT OFF.
IN THE SHORT-TERM, THE PROBLEM
WITH AI IS THAT IT MIGHT CONTROL
YOUR BRAIN THROUGH WORDS. THEY
IS THE APPLICATION TAT WE NEED
TO WORRY ABOUT NOW.
PARTICULARLY GOING INTO THE NEXT
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, THE
DEMOCRATIC PARTY AS USUAL WAS
AHEAD OF THE CUB ON THISTLE.
THEY’VE BEEN THINKING ABOUT HOW