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What you see here is timelapse of the airspace over Ukraine
beginning in the early morning of February 24, 2022.
We see the last commercial flights over the country for a while, as at 2:45 am local time
Ukraine closed its airspace to civil aviation in response to the start of the Russian invasion.
In the following weeks, the conflict started to impact air traffic all around the world.
Extensive airspace closures were put in place, international sanctions against Russia were issued
including ones targeted at russian airlines and private jets. And countless flights,
that usually cross Russian airspace, had to change route seeking ways past Russia.
While the widespread airspace closures are part of international sanctions against Russia,
some of the closures are also due to security concerns. As it was precisely this conflict that
about 7 and a half years earlier had made everyone aware of the dangers of overflying war zones.
On July 17, 2014, radio contact with flight MH17 en route from Amsterdam
to Kuala Lumpur suddenly broke off while the plane was flying over eastern Ukraine.
The crash, in which none of the 298 people on board survived,
sparked a widespread debate about flying civilian aircraft over war zones.
It happened in the border region with Russia, which had been the subject of
fierce fighting between Russian-backed militias and Ukrainian troops since April of that year.
Extensive investigations were carried out, and came to a clear result of what had happened.
On the day of the crash, a Buk missile system was transported from Russia
to Russian separatist-controlled Ukrainian territory. From there, the passenger plane
was shot down, with the anti-aircraft missile exploding on the side above the cockpit.
At the time of the crash, there were airspace limitations issued. This takes the form of a
so-called NOTAM notice, which is issued by state authorities and informs pilots about hazards,
warnings or restrictions. The airspace over eastern Ukraine was
closed to civilian aircraft below 26,000 feet. And in the area where the plane was shot down,
airspace was blocked up to 32 thousand feet. Flight MH17 fully complied with
these limitations as it was flying at an altitude of 33 thousand feet when
shot down. And it was not alone, the route was overflown by many airlines despite the conflict.
At the time of the crash a Singapore Airlines plane was only a few miles away from flight MH17.
In the crash investigation, the incident was taken as an opportunity to look at the extent to which
airspace restrictions are imposed in other conflict zones worldwide, with 10 conflicts
being studied for comparison. The decision-making process as to whether to fly in a conflict zone
is structured as follows. First of all, the country that is flown over has authority over its
airspace and can impose airspace restrictions. In many countries there are permanent areas
that are closed to civil aviation for various reasons. For example, around military bases,
in the vicinity of nuclear power plants or around places of significant importance.
It turned out that in 9 of these conflict zones examined in the report,
the airspace was not closed by local authorities. In two of these cases however,
including eastern Ukraine, the airspace was only open above a certain altitude.
The report ultimately comes to the conclusion that there is a lack of
incentives for nations to ensure the security of their airspace during an armed conflict.
But the responsibility does not only lie with the country over which the aircraft is flown.
It can also be the case that the airline's home country releases its own notices and restrictions.
For example, the FAA, the United States agency that regulates civil aviation,
can ban American operators from flying over certain areas abroad,
even if the country in question would allow the plane to pass through.
This is currently the case in Syria. Even though Syrian authorities have not closed
their own airspace, US airlines are not allowed to fly over the country even if they wanted to.
These airspace limitations may well differ internationally, as is currently the case in
Afghanistan. The US authority FAA prohibits US operators from entering Afghanistan's airspace,
with just one exception for overflights along an airway in the east of the country
via the mountainous Wakhan Corridor. The German flight authority DFS,
in turn, limits overflights of the country to a minimum altitude of
33 thousand feet. And the Spanish authorities only ban flights below an altitude of 26 thousand feet.
At the time of the MH17s crash, US authorities had banned American operators from flying in the area
surrounding the Crimean Peninsula. However,
the Donbass region where the crash occurred was not part of this notice.
Finally, it is of course also possible for airlines to carry out their own risk analysis
and to avoid certain areas despite permission. However,
they may not have the same level of intelligence information available as government agencies,
and to voluntarily change their flights to longer routes is not in their economic interest.
The investigation into the MH17 crash
ultimately concluded that none of the parties responsible recognized the risk.
Since then, the airspace over eastern Ukraine has been closed, while the military conflict remained
unresolved. Over the years, the war continues, with increasing direct intervention by the Russian
military. Dozens of cease-fire agreements were concluded, none of which ultimately lasted. From
March 2021 onwards, Russia started two phases of massive troop deployment on the Russia-Ukrainian
border and in Crimea, and ultimately begann a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
And in addition to airspace closures due to security concerns,
political sanctions now followed.
One by one, countries began to close their airspace to all Russian aircraft,
both airlines and private jets. First in the UK, Poland, the Czech Republic, Romania and Bulgaria.
The closures surprised some flights mid air. The pilots of Aeroflot flight SU124, on the
way from Moscow to New York, were informed mid flight that the Canadian airspace had been closed
for Russian planes. They therefore had to turn back to Moscow via Norway, Sweden and Finland.
A few hours later, these countries also closed their airspace to Russian aircraft,
and more countries followed. As of the making of this video, Russian planes cannot fly anywhere
in the European Union, Iceland, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Albania, as well as the two autonomous
Danish territories of Greenland and the Faroe Islands, Switzerland, which is generally known
for its political neutrality, and the United States. The ban leads to longer flight routes,
which can be seen, for example, with the flights connecting Kaliningrad and Moscow.
The Kaliningrad Oblast is an exclave of Russia, meaning a part of the country that is not directly
connected to the rest of it. While flight SU1005, which connects Kaliningrad and Moscow daily, used
to take a direct route via Lithuania and Belarus, it is now forced to take a detour, navigating over
the Baltic Sea and the narrow gap of international airspace between Finland and Estonia.
Transatlantic flights from Russia are also forced to take detours, such as flight SU158
from Moscow to Cancun on March 7, which circumnavigates all the closed airspaces.
A little later, the airline that operates this flight, Aeroflot, which is the biggest one in
Russia, had to suspend all international flights, except for those to Belarus.
The reason for this, above all, isn’t even the closed airspace, but an even greater concern for
Russian airlines. Namely that their aircraft, should they land anywhere abroad, could be
confiscated as part of international sanctions. That’s because most of these planes are leased,
which means that the aircrafts are not owned by Russian airlines but by private companies. Of
all 980 passenger jets operated by Russian airlines, 515 jets are rented from companies
outside of russia. These planes alone have an estimated market value of around $10 billion USD.
Many of the companies leasing such jets to Russian airlines are based in Ireland and Bermuda, and
both these countries have already announced that they would suspend all airworthiness certificates
for Russian operated planes. This means that a majority of Russian aircraft would soon be
repossessed by their owners. In Russia, the reaction to this came in the form of a new
law that actually allows the airlines to simply keep the planes. Accordingly,
Russian airlines can re-register their leased aircraft and the government will issue their
own airworthiness certificates, which will allow these aircraft to continue flying within Russia.
But even that could prove difficult, because the global aircraft manufacturers
Boeing, Airbus and Embraer have suspended their maintenance and technical support for Russian
airlines as part of the international sanctions. This also applies to the delivery of spare parts,
without which it will hardly be possible to maintain flight
operations, which is why Russia is currently looking for ways to get hold of such parts.
But the sanctions are by no means one-sided. Russia reacted to the closure of airspace for
Russian jets by also closing its airspace for airlines from 36 countries. And even operators
from countries that are not yet blocked, often avoid Russian airspace, such as all US airlines.
Particularly affected by having to circumnavigate Russian airspace are the many busy routes between
Europe and Asia. Since the regulations differ slightly from country to country,
let's take a closer look at Air France as an example. France is one of the countries
where Russia has banned airlines from this country to fly over their territory. Ukraine
has closed its airspace to all civilian air traffic since the invasion began. In addition,
the French authorities are banning their airlines from flying over Belarus and Moldova.
Due to the Syrian civil war, French authorities have ordered the country's
airlines not to fly over Syria. The same applies to Libya and Yemen.
For Somalia, French authorities have set a minimum altitude requirement of 32,000 feet
when overflying the country. The same applies to the southern and western border region of Sudan.
For Iran, French authorities have stated that the west of the country
should not be flown over and that flights in the east should keep a minimum of 32,000 feet.
Iraq should also not be flown over, except for two eastern airways, that also have to be taken with
a minimum of 32,000 feet. That same applies to an airway over eastern Afghanistan,while the rest of
the country may not be flown over. And in Pakistan a minimum altitude of 26,000 feet has to be kept.
Looking at this map. It turns out that certain routes are out of the question
and two corridors emerge that connect Europe with Asia without restrictions.
A northern route through the Black Sea and a southern one through Saudi Arabia.
For flights that up until recently went via Russia, this northern route is often
the best option. An example is flight AF112 from Paris to the south Korean capital Seoul.
In the past, most of the flight route went through Russia.
Now the flight runs along the Black Sea until it can then take a more direct route.
In some cases, the change of route even means flying the other way around the world,
such as the case with Japan Airlines route between Tokyo and London. As late as February,
this connection flew west over Russia.
But ever since March 4th, the airline flies northeast from Japan via Greenland towards the UK.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine is having an enormous impact on routes across the globe, and it
was this Russian war against Ukraine that already back in 2014 shook the aviation world, when Flight
MH17 was shot down. The crash investigation that we discussed earlier, which was carried out by the
Dutch authorities, was the most extensive such investigation ever carried out in the country.
It was an enormous challenge to investigate, as the crash site was located in a contested area
of a warzone. After all larger aircraft parts had been collected and analyzed in detail,
the wreckage parts were reattached to a metal construction,
which clearly underlined the cause of the crash mentioned in the final report.
I created a separate full-length video about this investigation into flight MH17,
which shows exactly how investigators managed to get an accurate and clear picture of the cause of
the crash. Since in that video, I also go into detail about the war situation at that time in
the Donbass region and deal with specific details about this brutal conflict, it is unfortunately
very likely that this video would not get monetized, and you probably would never see it.
That's why I uploaded my full-length video about Flight MH17 to Nebula
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