On December 27th 2020, the first eruption at the Soufriere Saint Vincent volcano in 41 years began.
Initially, this eruption was not very destructive, and built a feature known as a lava dome. However,
as this lava dome continued to grow in size, seismic signals were detected at depth, indicating
additional magma rising to the surface. Then, on April 8th, scientists noted a near constant
tremor at the volcano referred to as a harmonic tremor. The presence of this tremor indicated
that an explosive eruption was about to begin, and 16,000 people were evacuated. Then, on April 9th,
at 08:41 local time, the la Soufriere volcano violently exploded in what is termed a subplinian
eruption. The cause of the explosion was the build of pressure and gas beneath the lava dome which
formed in the previous few months. Luckily, myself and other scientists had predicted that this would
occur, and as a result there were 0 casualties due to evacuations. The resulting ash plume was
carried 9700 meters into the atmosphere, and spread ash towards the east of the volcano.
Due to the prevailing winds, a light dusting of ash even fell on the island of Barbados.
Since then, about a half dozen additional explosions have occurred.
Some of these explosions were equally as massive as the first explosion, while the majority were
an order of magnitude smaller. Regardless, these distributed a layer of ash which reached up to
2 centimeters thick 5 kilometers to the east of La Soufriere. In addition to Barbados, parts of
Saint Lucia have also received a dusting of ash. So, what will happen next during this eruption?
Those of you who have lived on the island of Saint Vincent for a long time likely remember the 1979
eruption from la Soufriere. During that eruption, explosive activity continued for 13 days, then
transitioned to a period of lava dome building. However, us geologists have noted that the current
eruption shares a number of similarities with the deadly and much larger 1902 eruption of
this volcano. Just like the current eruption, it started off with lava dome construction, a
series of moderate sized explosions occurred, and then a highly destructive explosion occurred. As I
was writing this video, this analysis was further reinforced when a massive explosion
identical in size to the deadly 1902 eruption occurred early in the morning of April 12th.
I really hope that this latest eruption caused no casualties, as radar telemetry indicating
ash density clearly shows a series of large pyroclastic flows traveling several kilometers
to the the south, and southwest. This is breaking news, and likely caused extreme property damage.
It is difficult to predict what exactly will happen next, but what I can say is
that large explosions will continue for days to weeks, potentially a few months
in a worst case scenario. These explosions will produce more pyroclastic flows,
and could potentially travel in any direction, perhaps up to 10 kilometers. I recommend immediate
evacuations of the orange risk area on the island. Ignoring the latest explosion, this eruption was
already larger in size than the 1979 eruption. So far, the eruption would rate on the volcanic
explosivity index as a 3. Using the ashfall totals documented on several islands, I have calculated
that so far about 2.3 million cubic meters of ash has been deposited by the first 6 explosions.
However, pyroclastic flows and ashfall are not the only hazards. I need those of you
who live on Saint Vincent to prepare for deadly mudflows which are called lahars. When the next
large rainstorm occurs, a significant quantity of ash will be swept downhill, creating a phenomena
similar to a flashflood. Since ash is quite heavy, these debris flows could cause significant
damage to any structures near a riverbed. This ash also poses other dangers. The
current ash on the ground likely is enriched in numerous toxins such as fluorine and heavy metals.
As a result, numerous sources of groundwater will remain completely unsafe to consume until further
testing is done. Do NOT, under any circumstances, let any of your pets outside, as they will
naturally drink this contaminated water. For now, use purified and bottled water. However, there is
a potential positive to the current eruption. Once the eruption ends, areas which received a light
dusting of ash will now have a natural fertilizer on the ground. If you plant crops on top of
this ash, they could turn out with the largest flowers, or tastiest fruits you have ever seen.
I hope that you enjoyed this video. If you would like to request a specific topic, please leave
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