Hey guys, like many of you, we're sheltering in place.
In fact, we're even separated from each other while Julia awaits the results of her COVID test.
Thankfully, I'm feeling much better, but I don't wanna get Philip or the baby sick.
But we know that people are looking for financial info more than ever, so we're gonna do this
lo-fi, and try to answer some of the pressing questions on top of people's minds, starting
with... the stock market crash.
I'm gonna let Philip handle this one and keep getting rest, but I will be back next week!
Remember way back in February 2020?
Ah, the good old days -- stock market at all time highs, everyone had a job, all the toilet
paper you could ever want.
Life was great.
The US stock market, measured by the DOW, has fallen over 35% in a month's time, wiping
away years of growth.
We witnessed the worst single-day decline since 1987, and the exchanges were temporarily
shut down three times in a week when it fell too far in a single day.
When the stock market fell by more than 20%, we officially entered a “bear market”.
Bear markets usually - but not always - precede a recession.
Like the stock market crashes preceding the Great Depression of 1929 or the Great Recession
of 2008.
Depending on the criteria, there have been between 10 and 20 bear markets in the last
century, and this month, we just entered another one.
This is a scary time we’re living in right now, I’m the first to admit it.
I was worried when Julia came down with a bad cough and had to get tested for COVID-19.
I am hurting for my friends and family who are experiencing layoffs, slowdowns and closures.
This will have a lasting, harmful effect on our economy, and many people’s lives.
But what we’re seeing right now in the markets is not unprecedented.
In the words of investing pioneer Sir John Templeton “The four most expensive words
in the English Language are ‘this time it’s different.’“
We always think the current crisis is unique.
World Wars, nuclear meltdowns, Great Depressions -- even the global Spanish Flu Pandemic
that left 50 million dead.
The stock market’s long-term average is accounting for every one of those terrible times.
Every time, things seem hopeless.
Every time, markets recover.
The bear wanders back into the woods, and markets thrive again.
It will happen with coronavirus, and the other bears in our future too.
Selling out of stock investments when a bear market rears its head turns a bad situation
into a worse situation in two big ways.
First, you “realize the loss”, turning a decline in share value into a real loss
in your bank account.
Think of it like seeing your home appraised for less, and immediately putting it up for sale.
You’d never do that!
Second, you’re making nearly certain that you miss the recovery when it happens.
Between 1993 and 2013, the S&P 500 grew by 9.2% annually.
But if you take out just the 10 best trading days over that period, your annual average is cut
nearly in half.
If you missed the 60 best trading days, you’d average a -4.39% return!
By jumping out after a bear arrives, you seriously risk missing the wave of the recovery.
The aggressive among you may be wondering, “Well, is now the time to BUY stocks?”
Maybe… but with a few caveats.
Financial experts discourage investing in the stock market with any money you may need
sooner than 10 years from now.
Keep money for short-term needs in safe havens like cash, bonds, or CD’s.
But if you have a nice cash cushion AND you were already planning to invest that money
anyway -- yes!
Go ahead and continue to invest into the market.
By investing in good times and bad, you get to take advantage of “dollar-cost averaging”,
a strategy that, by investing on a regular basis, allows you to buy more shares on the
cheap and less shares as they get expensive.
Investing is for the long-term.
Retirement or college accounts are designed to be invested and grow for decades.
Don’t let the turbulent news of today make you rethink a solid long-term strategy.
That big mean bear will eventually wander back home and you’ll be glad you kept your
cool and didn’t make him mad.
And that’s my Two Cents.