On 10 March 2023, Saudi Arabia in Iran agreed to
restore diplomatic ties seven years after they were cut.
But while the deal is widely considered significant for the Middle East,
where tensions between these two political heavyweights have been at the centre of
regional difficulties for many decades, the news was also notable for another reason.
Having been brokered by China, it suggests Beijing's arrival as
a powerful new geopolitical actor in this strategically vital area.
So, what exactly does the agreement mean?
Why is it potentially so important?
And what does this say about China's growing role in the
Middle East and world affairs more generally?
Hello and welcome. If you're new to the channel my name is James Ker-Lindsay and
here I took an informed look at international relations, conflict, security, and statehood.
Over the past decade or so, there's been widespread talk about China's
ever-increasing role as an actor in global affairs.
Through the Belt and Road Initiative, it's extended its economic and political
ties across Central and South Asia and pushed into Africa and Europe.
At the same time, it's become steadily more forceful in its neighbourhood.
As well as concerns that it's preparing to invade Taiwan,
there's considerable focus on its expanding claims in the South China
Sea and its growing presence across the broader Indo-Pacific region.
But, until now, it hasn't played the role of a power broker like other key International actors,
such as the United States, the European Union, and even the Russian Federation.
However, could this now be changing?
In February 2023, Beijing presented a framework for ending the war between Ukraine and Russia.
But as seemingly significant as this was, it was really the news that it had managed to broker
a settlement between Iran and Saudi Arabia that really caught International headlines.
The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the Islamic Republic of Iran lie in the Middle East.
Situated on the Arabian Peninsula, Saudi Arabia is 2.1 million square kilometres,
or 830,000 square miles, making it the 12th largest member of the UN.
To its Northeast is Iran.
At 1.6 million square kilometres or 630,000 square miles, it's the 17th largest UN member.
Separated by the Persian Gulf, the two countries
lie less than 200 kilometres or 150 miles apart at their closest point.
In terms of population, Iran has 88 million inhabitants compared to Saudi Arabia's 36 million.
Economically, both countries are heavily dependent on oil and gas exports.
As for their per capita GDP, Saudi Arabia currently stands at around US$49,000.
This compares to Iran at US$16, 500.
The two countries have a long and complex history underpinned by religious differences.
While both are almost wholly Muslim, they follow different branches of the faith.
While Saudi Arabia, the birthplace of Islam, follows the Sunni branch which makes up around
90 of worldwide adherents, Iran follows the minority Shia branch of the faith.
And it's this in part that forms a key element in the problems that we see today.
But in modern terms, Iran and Saudi Arabia have in fact had relatively good relations.
While Iran's existence as an independent state goes back
centuries, Saudi Arabia first began to emerge after the first world war.
In 1929, they established diplomatic relations
and both countries were founding members of the United Nations when it was set up in 1945.
While the two countries had few apparent problems, there were nevertheless points of friction.
Aside from their religious differences, Saudi Arabia was far more conservative and rejected
the modernisation and social liberalisation that took place under Iran's monarchy.
On top of this, they also differed over Israel.
While Iran never formally recognised Israel as a state, it maintained close ties with the country.
This starkly contrasted with the hard-line
position of Saudi Arabia and the rest of the Arab world.
However, it was the Islamic revolution in Iran in 1979 that fundamentally changed the relationship.
Having overthrown the country's monarchy,
the theocratic Shia leadership in the new Islamic Republic of Iran looked to export
its radical ideology and the gulf monarchies, including Saudi Arabia, became a key target.
In response, Saudi Arabia and its neighbours supported Iraq's
brutal eight-year war against Iran in the 1980s.
Meanwhile, tensions also emerged across many other areas in the following years,
leading to what many called a Middle East cold war between Saudi Arabia and Iran.
At a geostrategic level, while Saudi Arabia formed close ties with the West,
Iran continually denounced the United States.
On top of this, tensions between the two countries also grew across the broader Middle
East as Iran became increasingly supportive of militant Palestinian groups and Hezbollah,
the key Shia player in Lebanon's vicious multi-party civil war.
More recently, the proxy conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran has
extended out to cover a range of other different conflicts in the Middle East.
This has included the civil wars in Iraq, Syria, Libya, and Yemen.
And it's this that sets the stage for the breakdown in relations.
The problems really emerged around a decade ago and were centred on two main factors.
First, and in a broader sense, tensions between the countries began to deteriorate
dramatically with the start of the civil war in Yemen, on Saudi Arabia's southern border.
With support from Iran, a key rebel group - The Houthis - seized the capital, Sanaa.
Fearing the consequences of this, Saudi Arabia stepped in alongside other Gulf states.
This effectively made the conflict in Yemen a proxy war.
At the same time, it was also driven by domestic factors in Saudi Arabia, where there had been
growing unrest amongst the country's Shia Community; who officially make up around 20
to 40 per cent of the population - although some observers believe it could be higher than this.
This came to a head at the end of December 2015 when Saudi Arabia
executed 47 people accused of instigating unrest.
This included a prominent Shia cleric who'd been
convicted of inciting a rebellion in the east of the country in 2011.
This sparked demonstrations in Iran that saw
the Saudi Embassy in Tehran and a consulate in another city attacked.
Accusing the Iranian authorities have been behind the unrest,
at the very start of January 2016 Saudi Arabia cut off diplomatic relations with Iran.
Following this, tensions between the two countries continued to escalate.
As well as a war of words, Saudi Arabia came under sustained attack
from Houthi missiles and drones supplied by Iran.
This included strikes against oil facilities
and a high-profile attack on an international airport in 2019.
And although Saudi Arabia blockaded key Yemeni ports, leading to a humanitarian catastrophe
widely condemned internationally, it failed to stop the constant barrage.
Indeed, by the end of 2021, it was reported that 430 missiles and 851 drones had been
fired at Saudi Arabia from Yemen since 2015, killing almost 60 civilians.
And it was against this backdrop that China brokered peace.
So, how did it happen? And just what exactly was agreed?
In truth, it's hard to say with any certainty.
What we do know is that after intensive talks in
Beijing between senior security officials from the two countries,
Iran and Saudi Arabia decided to restore the diplomatic relations broken at the start of 2016.
They also agreed not to interfere in each other's domestic affairs.
But, beyond that, we know very little about what exactly had been decided.
But, in many ways, the agreement's substance
is less significant than the broader impact at the deal.
The big question is whether it marks a new direction for China as a global power.
While the news was certainly widely welcomed,
not least of all by the United Nations, opinion on this question is divided.
On the one hand, many feel that this is undoubtedly a massive achievement for Beijing.
However, others are far more cautious insisting that the agreement isn't as
significant as it may seem, nor was it as difficult to secure as one might think.
There had been signs that both sides wanted to find a way out.
On top of this, it's been pointed out that the
scope of the agreement is in fact relatively minor.
The countries have merely agreed to re-establish diplomatic relations,
albeit in return for various commitments.
It certainly doesn't rank alongside other major Middle East peace initiatives.
For example, it isn't on par with the U.S brokered
Camp David agreement that normalised relations between Egypt and Israel.
Nor can it be compared to the Oslo agreement that
provided a framework for settling the Israel-Palestine conflict.
Indeed, observers point out that it doesn't even come close to the 2020 Abraham Accords
brokered by the Trump Administration, which saw the United Arab Emirates,
Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco recognise Israel.
Nevertheless, the agreement certainly can't be dismissed.
It is significant in several key ways.
For a start, no matter how much one might want to diminish its value,
in real terms it does mark an important step in a new direction for China.
The fact that it brokered an agreement that's received such
widespread attention is a huge diplomatic victory.
It's also significant precisely because it was an agreement that Washington,
which doesn't have diplomatic relations with Iran, could never have brokered.
Beijing can present this as evidence that it
can act where the United States and other Western States can't.
Of course, all this raises broader questions about whether this could
be a further sign that U.S. influence is diminishing in the Middle East.
Most notably in this context,
there have been growing concerns that Saudi Arabia is distancing itself from Washington.
Whether this is true or not, is hard to say.
But one crucial test could indicate that Washington remains a significant actor,
if not the key player.
For a while now, there's been taught that Saudi Arabia has been considering recognising Israel.
It's known that the two countries have good relations behind the scenes,
but formal acceptance has always been difficult.
If Washington were now to step in and secure such an agreement,
this would eclipse the deal brokered by China.
But for now it seems that Washington is trying to play down the impact of the deal,
if not put a brave face on the news.
In briefings to the press, U.S. officials have said that the agreement may in fact be beneficial.
And they've said that they even encouraged the talks between Saudi Arabia and Iran.
However, they've also urged caution noting that it will
be essential to see whether Tehran lives up to its end of the bargain.
Nevertheless, the agreement will be viewed by China and many other observers as growing
evidence of Beijing's increasingly important place in world affairs.
And regardless of what might be said in public,
there's no doubt that many in Europe and the United States will be watching with
concern as China bridges the differences between two major regional adversaries.
Meanwhile, it'll also be interesting to see if
Beijing has in fact developed a taste for this type of diplomatic activity.
Could we see China now become more active in other conflicts around the world?
If so, this agreement may mark the moment that China took a further important step in
cementing its place as a key power broker in the international political and diplomatic system.
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