for conversations of great minds i speak with an american historian economist and
author
was opened our eyes to some fascinating insights
and generations of people interact with each other
craft the timeline of modern in history
is that more than a dozen books
one of which the fourth turning written back in nineteen ninety-seven publish
them for a probably work before that
was prophetic in describing the events were facing today as a nation
his most recent book
is called mullen hills in the workplace
curly's the present a consulting firm life course associates senior associate
for the center for strategic and international studies global aging
initiative
like to welcome now to studio you know how
thanks for showing up tonight
greg what is great to be here welcome to our program
i t i have
in among my
ten or fifteen
most influential forces your fourth turning in the books to surround that i
think
the whole concept
multi generational
well pick
i like the words wave if you could describe for us the concept
why the fourth turning what are the four generations what's that
big concept because it's all about anyway
like the really started with their with their first book
as
generations which came out in nineteen ninety one
several years earlier
uh... i
that's kinda what gave birth to this whole new approach
decided that this is bill strauss and myself why
we decided to write pastry of america the weighted it'd never been written
before
and that is
as a sequence of generational biographies starting all the way back in
the
early sixteen hundreds with the first generation you know the great migration
to new england with with john winthrop in the puritans and so on
and we looked at each generation as a separate collective story
what were they like his children what was going on which you can coming of age
their courtship what war is that they serve them
how did they go how are they uh... did they experience parenting what were they
like his mid-life leaders
and what were they like an old age how did they look back upon their lives in
the life lessons
and then we take the next group in the next griffin
the first thing we found that was interesting as
these different generations of experienced the same events
convicted experience in a different ages gave them a completely different alike
one generation of course surge in the warrant the next generation with the
children during the war
andrew very
different lesson from the experience
and other generation with the elders during the war hero idea moved in with
the leaders in the elders in
the ended this kind of jim these kinds of generational differences have been a
while and for centuries they've always been there and they've been talked about
the next thing we found that was really sort of an expected is not only at these
generations are very different
but they tend to return a certain rhythm that is to say certain kinds of
generations tend to follow other generations
and of course ends
each generation
both shaped by history and then shapes history right it's shaped his trees
mid-life leaders and parents
that there is a kind of
a rhythm in the kinds of generations actually implied a rhythm of history
itself
and that gave rise too
a perspective which
stood at the front of our sip harvard actually a third book which was
the fourth turning
which was instead of a lenient generations and then looking at the
rhythm of history
we started by looking at rhythms of history
what are the patterns of history wired
are there cycles of war are they cycles of religious awakening
doo-doo those drug dealers sell rise or fall in any predictable pattern
uh... i is there such a thing as a long cycle contrary of wave and an economic
activity
uh... is are there is such things as a cycle of a realigning elections in
american history these have been widely discusses an enormous literature on
looking at these kinds of rhythms and psychological economics particularly the
economics and we found it
there are so i felt and in fact
the generational experience
the dieting or ged rather governing
by timer of the cycles mechanic gives rise if it gets coherence
the the experience of
being young and growing older
is a constant throughout history have really doesn't very very much a ministry
that some of us who live longer than we used to
basic phases of life
being young person
coming of age into adulthood
achieving leadership responsibilities usually in your mid forties
beginning to retire from public life and an economic life
in your in your mid sixties late sixties
these have been concepts
and and they didn't give a certain time industry itself so
my read of your book
was that there are these for
kind of archetypal
generations
in that and any shirish is roughly twenty years jarvis defined as nineteen
years right
listed for me
and so
every eighty years the cycle repeats itself and each one of those four
generations because of their experience
from the generation experiences more depression
because of their experience that uh... because their children's experience
growing up in that
baby come the generation that does let's let's start with that that
generation experiences warren depression of the depression war
that generation is called walk
well the the generation to pick an arbitrary generation that comes of age
in their youth participating actively in a period of national crisis like a war
but we call them a civic generation or the hero architect
as the founders vis-a-vis the the republican generation often you know the
the res publica generally original meaning a republican
uh... i've jefferson madison monroe i mean precocious young as as political
leaders an incredible age i think the trav retrieves the average age of the of
the writers offers authors of the federalist papers right
j at hamilton in madison
something like thirty years old attorneys
imagine today
the founding document of the whole near a political regime being written by
people that young
but that's what we expected from that generation
so them that generation to generation then disparate the is is they grow old
and typical of a care archetype and we've seen many of them in our history
they become politically and institutionally powerfully young age in
the occupied these positions of public leadership
for a long tenure over their lifetime
their powerful as voters that organized a valve frequently they load often in a
vote in an organized way
the most recent example of a hero archetype
course is the greatest generation right
the g_i_ generation
who came of age during the great depression came of age in world war two
they are the most uniformed
generation per capita american history
rightful something like fifteen million of them served in in world war two
nya at they took us out of the great depression they fought these wars
they've they've filled the interstates in them
they the americorps vaccines they took us to the moon the great society all
these wonderful civics thanks
they have voted
you know there are all image now bull people as they vote all the time frame
old people in american history don't always vote all the time injustice
generation that those incidents of the generation gives birth to
well they are then followed him as the sometimes is our younger sibling
sometimes their children
but they are followed but we call the artist archetype
and these are the war children
these are the children of war born just two leon just to lead to participate
fifth charters in their conduct in the war
and just to burley
to uh... bug
i think that early enough to actually experienced the quot
places to turn it in history there we go and you can see how they're all located
these tend to be conformist generations young we've seen many other
this is the fifties minister this was the fifties and this is the so-called
silent generation
who were named a video store and william manchester in time magazine in the early
nineteen fifties silent
they are
our image of a silent generation is children
would be the little rascals shirley temple
very well-behaved kids and it's a little envelope with richard nixon tried to
reach out to politically well gee i don't want to talk to the silent
majority and and and the and he was successful for a time as we remember
they are
and new generation always surprises because okay that's the role of those
companies are never expecting this sudden shift
and your favorite
and the silent generation surprised everyone because when they came to
college right after world war two
there motto is no longer
we want to change the system during the communist party conquer half the world
to the big things that you guys want to do their motto was
we don't want to change the system we want to work within the system
and fortune magazine and a cover story in nineteen forty nine called the
college class of forty nine and suppose
taking no chances
their first interviews in
initially reserved for jobs is a vet pension plans are so so this generation
of love
for minister left a short break and when i would like to get raw form there
so that generation silent interaction benny's birthday or
is followed by is followed by
the profit architect and of course very recently in american history these are
boomers
we've seen this pattern again and again in american history of the generation
born after the great crisis with no memory of it
indulge in the race for the time of high material affluence
they come engaged
triggering the next great religious or cultures creating throw rock-throwing
listens and this is that if this is this is the hip businesses if this is the
that my daughter is she's revolution
become a major tacking the institution of their elders
the reshape not the outer world of institutions that reshape the world of
culture values and religion
and they spend the rest of their life is culture warriors i mean come on this
israelis on the right now and i said this is the bombers yet
and the boomers are interned followed
by the generation who are
children during the awakening
these are the little kids when older people are discovering themselves and
having visions of the new truth getting in touch with themselves
these are usually i like the silent generation which are overprotective
this archetype of the carbon nomad architect
it's and you're protected
and this is generation x_
we see the same pattern
and we see again and again these are generation arraylist and this is the
survivors free agents and and this could be also the calvin coolidge warren
harding that there are lost and they were later called a lost generation who
who is
excesses who've whose financial excesses in seeking
wealth and and material prosperity
led to the great depression and world war two
so the psychological over exact frisky rest of the roaring twenties
and into the great
it was generation x_ along with their mersey gave rise to the roaring back
east
uh... and then the ela
was right and then finally look we have a meltdown we have the bursting of
bubbles and we're living through the aftermath of that in these four
generations recurring to take this all the way back
to the to the war the roses to eight b at what we what what is going to get
that we take it back actually did that to the through the to the renaissance
and we believe it not only occurs inserted
american anglo history it occurs in other societies as well in fact we can
talk about that later
these all across the world today
and you know it is globally many of the same kinds of generation for a
generation types emerging
threat not just english-speaking word world but all of europe including russia
and in china
training is obsessed with generations vision shock about that because it's
fascinating to do it at their version at different times widely different times
within these particular areas is actually have a rough correspondent
powell in a little later in these other countries in america but evrythng
correspondents fascinating this as a remarkable
you wrote this book was published in nineteen seventy four nineteen ninety
six is probably wrote this in ninety five six we romanticize ninety six
it's a book of course as you know in the book we predicted
that's what i want to read a if i'm if
justices set up for the next seven is we've we've got about a minute here to
the break it's already like to just
share this with our with our viewers though because
i remember reading this and thinking what will see are now looking back at it
blows my mind
you wrote back in nineteen ninety-five the next four th turning his due to
begin shortly after the new millennium after the year two thousand five sudden
sparkle catalysed a crisis mood remnants of the old social order will
disintegrate
political and economic trustful imploded
real hardship will be set the land was severely distressed that could involve
questions of class race nation
an empire
yet this time of travel will bring seeds of social rebirth hero
americans will share regret about raising the stakes resolute new
consensus about what to do and a very survival of the nation
will feel at stake somewhere sometimes from before the year twenty twenty-five
america will pass through a great day in history commensurate with the american
revolution the civil war between emerges as the great depression will work to the
risk of catastrophe will be very high the nation could erupt into insurrection
or superb civil violence crack up geographically or succumb to a torturing
role if there's a war
it is likely to be one of maximum risk in efforts
in other words a total war
not this just is incredible it when we come back meal idling
on the other hand it could have a very positive me clearly could solve all of
our world power
think this is the lesson of fourth carries wishes and and and and i want to
get into that what
you know how did you see this coming
and what where are we now know where we go we'll be right back here
with neil howe
in our conversations great