COHEN GROUP, SERVING UNDER PRESIDENT CLINTON AND AS A
SENATOR FROM MAINE. THANK YOU FOR BEING WITH US.
WHAT DO YOU MAKE OF THIS, AS FAR AS WHAT WE KNOW ON WHAT IS
GOING ON, HOW SIGNIFICANT ARE THESE ADVANCEMENTS?
>> I THINK IT IS QUITE SIGNIFICANT THAT YOU HAVE THESE
TERRITORIES REGAINED BY THE UKRAINIANS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF
TIME. THEY ALMOST DOUBLED OVERNIGHT
THE TERRITORY THEY SEIZED. THIS HAS SOMETHING A LOT ABOUT
THE RUSSIANS, NUMBER ONE, AND THEY ARE NOT 10 FEET TALL.
THEY ARE POORLY TRAINED, EQUIPPED, LEAD, AND FED.
ALL OF THOSE THINGS ARE BEING REFLECTED IN THE WAY THEY WERE
ROUTED AND THEY DID NOT RETREAT OR REGROUP, THEY HAD A ROUTE,
THEY WERE ROUTED. I THINK IT SAYS A LOT ABOUT THE
QUALITY OF THE RUSSIAN MILITARY AND WHERE THEY ARE, SAYS A LOT
MORE ABOUT THE UKRAINIANS BECAUSE UKRAINIANS ARE NOW
FIRED UP. THEY HAVE SAID TO US, YOU GIVE
US THE MEANS, WE WILL PROVIDE THE MUSCLE.
WHAT WE NEED IS MORE EQUIPMENT. MORE EQUIPMENT WE CAN MORE
EASILY TARGET THE RUSSIANS, THAT WE CAN SHOOT AND SCOOT SO
TO SPEAK IN TERMS OF MOBILITY BEHIND OTHER EQUIPMENT.
SO THEY'RE ASKING FOR MORE EQUIPMENT, ASKING FOR MORE HELP
ON THE RESETTLEMENT OF REFUGEES OR HELPING PEOPLE TO STAY IN
UKRAINE BECAUSE THE LONGER THE REFUGEES STAY IN POLAND AND
OTHER COUNTRIES, THE HARDER IT WILL BE FOR THEM TO GO BACK.
ANY SHORT-TERM HELP ON THE REFUGEES AND THEY NEED
SHORT-TERM HELP ON RECONSTRUCTION TO MAKE SURE
THEY HAVE POWER, LIGHTS, FOOD, WATER, ALL OF THE THINGS BEING
ATTACKED BY PUTIN AT THIS POINT. DAVID:
MR. SECRETARY, YOU HAVE HAD EXTENSIVE EXPERIENCE WITH
RUSSIA AND BEFORE THAT THE SOVIET UNION, YOU OBSERVED
PRESIDENT PUTIN FOR A GOOD LONG TIME.
MY IMPRESSION IS HE DID NOT LIKE TO BACK DOWN.
WHAT SHOULD WE BE PREPARED TO ANTICIPATE AT LEAST ABOUT HIS
RESPONSE. THUS FAR HE IS NOT SAYING HE
WILL TAKE HIS FORCES AND GO HOME. SEC. COHEN:
I DON'T THINK HE IS HEADED FOR THE ISLAND THAT NAPOLEON DID
THAT WAS EXILED THERE. I DO NOT THINK HE WILL GO
GENTLY INTO THE GOOD NIGHT. I DON'T THINK THE FUTURE LOOKS
BRIGHT FOR HIM IF HE CONTINUES TO SUFFER THIS KIND OF LOSS
WHETHER THE RUSSIAN PEOPLE WILL EVENTUALLY TURN AGAINST HIM.
THERE IS TALK HE MAY START A DRAFT AND HAVE A CALL UP OF
FORCES. PERHAPS HE COULD DO THAT IN THE
SHORT TERM, PEOPLE SAY IT IS NOW A WAR AND NOT A SPECIAL
MISSION. THAT COULD HAVE ITS OWN DYNAMIC
TO UNDERMINE HIM AT HOME. ON THE OTHER HAND, EGG IS A NOW
WE HAVE A BIGGER FIGHTING FORCE AND THEY WON'T BE WELL-TRAINED
AND WELL LED IN THE SHORT-TERM, BUT IN THE LONG TERM, RUSSIA IS
STILL BIG. IT IS A BIG, STRONG COUNTRY IN
TERMS OF ITS OIL, IN TERMS OF ITS GUNS AND MILITARY EQUIPMENT.
I SUSPECT PUTIN IS GOING TO CONTINUE TO MAKE A LONG-TERM
CAMPAIGN TO SEE IF HE CAN CONTINUE TO TREAD THE FORCES IN
UKRAINE BECAUSE THEY HAVE SO MANY MORE PEOPLE TO OVERWHELM
THEM. THAT IS WHAT I EXPECT HE WILL
TRY TO DO. I ALSO THINK YOU WILL CONTINUE
TO COMMIT WAR CRIMES. HE COMMITTED MULTIPLE WAR
CRIMES , NUMBER ONE BY INVADING A NEUTRAL COUNTRY, NUMBER TWO,
BY ATTACKING CIVILIANS AND SLAUGHTERING THEM.
NOW GOING AFTER THEIR FOOD SUPPLIES, ELECTRICITY, AND
POWER , THAT IS ANOTHER WAR CRIME WAGED BY HIM.
NOW WE ARE WORRIED -- NOT WORRIED, CONCERNED I SHOULD SAY
THAT HE MAY GO EVEN FURTHER. THIS WAS TRUE WHEN THE CAMPAIGN
INITIALLY WAS FOILED, WHEN THEY
DID NOT TAKE KIEV, BUT WOULD HE USE CHEMICAL WEAPONS I THINK
THE WESTERN WORLD HAS TO GET TOGETHER AND NOT WAIT THAT IF
HE DOES THIS, THESE ARE THE THINGS WE ARE PREPARED TO DO.
WE CANNOT LET THIS GO AS JUST ANOTHER FORM OF FIGHTING.
CHEMICAL WEAPONS HAVE BEEN OUTLAWED FOR DECADES NOW.
NUCLEAR WEAPONS, NOT ALLOWED TO BE USED ON THE BATTLEFIELD.
IF HE DOES ANY OF THESE, WE HAVE TO HAVE A PLAN.
THE WORLD HAS TO HAVE A PLAN TO SAY IF YOU DO THIS, THESE ARE
THE CONSEQUENCES. I WOULD NOT BE ANXIOUS TO SPELL
THEM OUT BUT I WOULD BE PREPARED TO INVOKE THEM
IMMEDIATELY AND THE DEVASTATING IMPACT UPON RUSSIA ITSELF, DOES
NOT HAVE TO BE MILITARY BUT CERTAINLY HAS TO BE
CONSEQUENTIAL. DAVID:
YOU MENTIONED ADVANCED WEAPONRY WE HAVE BEEN PROVIDED, NATO AS
WELL AS THE UNITED STATES, TO THE UKRAINIANS.
IS THIS A TIME GIVEN THE SUCCESS THAT WE SHOULD
RECONSIDER THE AIRCRAFT ISSUE? SEC. COHEN:
I THINK THERE IS ALWAYS TIME TO THINK ABOUT THAT.
IN THE BEGINNING, WE WERE WORRIED IF WE PROVIDED THAT
EQUIPMENT AND CAPABILITIES THAT WOULD SEND PUTIN -- SET HIM OFF
ON A MORE AGGRESSIVE ATTACK UPON UKRAINE.
I THINK THE MORE HE ENGAGES IN WHAT IS CLEARLY HEINOUS
ACTIVITY, THEN IT IS MORE LIKELY OTHER COUNTRIES
INCLUDING THE UNITED STATES WILL BE MORE WILLING TO PROVIDE
THAT EQUIPMENT AND CAPABILITY TO THE UKRAINIANS.
WE HAVE SEEN, WHEN WE GIVE THEM WHAT THEY NEED, THEY ARE ABLE
TO HOLD THEIR OWN, ABLE TO INFLICT A SUBSTANTIAL DAMAGE
UPON THE RUSSIAN PEOPLE, EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE HEAVILY
OUTNUMBERED. MY ONLY WAY OF THINKING, YOU
COULD TAKE A WELL FRAMED, WELL MUSCLED MIDDLEWEIGHT GOING UP
AGAINST AN OBESE HEAVYWEIGHT. CAN THE MIDDLEWEIGHT HOLD ITS
OWN UNDER THOSE CIRCUMSTANCES IF YOU GIVE HIM THAT'S MUSCLE
IN TERMS OF EQUIPMENT? THEN THEY ARE HOLDING THEIR OWN.
I THING WE HAVE TO GIVE THEM WHATEVER THEY NEED AND TRY NOT
TO CROSS A LINE THAT WILL SET IN MOTION A COUNTERATTACK THAT
WILL BE SIMPLY DESIGNED TO DESTROY UKRAINE.
HE IS CAPABLE OF THAT AND THAT IS WHY THE WESTERN WORLD HAS TO
BE WILLING TO STAND UP AND SAY THESE ARE UNACCEPTABLE.
YOU STARTED A WAR, YOU ARE LOSING A WAR, THAT IS UP TO YOU
TO FIND A PATHWAY OFF. BUT WE ARE NOT GOING TO
TOLERATE ANYONE USING CHEMICAL, BIOLOGICAL, OR NUCLEAR WEAPONS.
DAVID: FINALLY, TO PUT IT IN A BROADER
CONTEXT, WE HAVE TOMORROW, PRESIDENT XI OF CHINA, MEETING
PRESIDENT PUTIN A SECOND TIME, TO REDOUBLE THEIR FRIENDSHIP
AND COMMITMENT TO ONE ANOTHER. HOW IMPORTANT IS THAT TO US,
THE UNITED STATES, AND TO UKRAINE AND NATO? SEC. COHEN:
I THINK IT IS VERY IMPORTANT. OVER THE YEARS WE TRIED TO MAKE
SURE WE DID NOT PUSH RUSSIA INTO THE ARMS OF THE CHINESE.
THEY HAVE BEEN MOVING IN THAT DIRECTION EVER SINCE WE HAVE
BEEN MOVING AWAY CERTAINLY FROM RUSSIA BUT ALSO FROM CHINA.
A NUMBER OF US HAVE BEEN TRYING TO SAY IS THERE ANYWAY WE CAN
LOOK TO CHINA, THE SECOND-BIGGEST ECONOMY IN THE
WORLD, A MILITARY POWER?
I WOULD PUT THEM IN THE COMPETITOR CATEGORY IN TERMS OF
WHAT THEY HAVE INVESTED IN THEIR MILITARY.
ARE THERE AREAS WE CAN EITHER COOPERATE, COLLABORATE, OR
CONFRONT IF WE HAVE TO? I WOULD WANT TO EXPLORE WHAT
CAN WE DO TOGETHER? CAN WE DO SOMETHING TOGETHER ON
FOOD SECURITY, ENERGY SECURITY, PANDEMIC COOPERATION, THE
HEALTH NEEDS OF THE CHINESE PEOPLE AND THE UNITED STATES?
THOSE ARE AREAS WE CAN CONTINUE TO WORK WITH THEM.
THE OTHER CHOICE WOULD BE TO DISENGAGE, DECOUPLE OUR
ECONOMIES AND I DO NOT THINK THAT IS A GOOD IDEA.
BUT I THINK IT IS WORTH US PURSUING.
I THINK THE PRESIDENT, BITING, WILL TRY TO PURSUE THOSE AREAS
WE FEEL WE CAN COOPERATE AND COLLABORATE RATHER THAN SAY YOU
ARE AN ADVERSARY AND WE WILL CONFRONT YOU ON EACH AND EVERY
ISSUE AND MAY THE BEST COUNTRY WIN. I DO NOT THINK THAT IS
SOMETHING WE WANT TO DO. I DO NOTHING WE WILL HAVE
ALLIES IN THE END OF PACIFIC REGION THAT WILL SUPPORT THAT.
THEY WOULD WANT US TO BE A FORCE IN THE REGION, THEY DO
NOT WANT US TO FORCE THEM TO MAKE A CHOICE.
DO THEY DEAL WITH CHINA AS A FRIEND OR UNITED STATES?
THEY LOOK AT THE UNITED STATES AS A FRIEND BUT THEY DO NOT
WANT US TO START ACTIONS THAT WILL PUT THEM IN A POSITION OF
HAVING TO CHOOSE. THEY ARE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD
AND WE ARE NOT. IT IS ALWAYS A CONCERN ON THEIR
PART. DAVID: MR. SECRETARY, THANK YOU FOR
SPENDING YOUR TIME TODAY WITH US.