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So at some point during your life, you've probably experienced something that you would describe as unlikely.
But what are some of the most unlikely things that could happen to you during your life.
To start with something more easy to visualize,
imagine walking into a room with 30 random people.
There is a 1 in 12 chance that you would share the same birthday with somebody else in that room, which seems unlikely
but it's almost infinitely more likely than some other future probabilities later in this video.
If you apply to Harvard,
you only have a 1 in 20 chance of getting accepted.
But that's still more likely than taking a pair of dice and rolling a snake eyes,
which is only a 1 in 36 chance. To get a little more unlikely,
you have only about a 1 in 100 chance of developing a brain tumor during your life
and a 1 in 102 chance of getting killed in an automobile accident if you live in the US.
Medically speaking,
You had a 1 in 500 chance of being born with 11 fingers or toes,
which is still more likely than a high school hockey player ever going pro,
which is only 1 in 598.
In fact,
It's very unlikely that any random high school athlete will ever make it to the pros.
With baseball being 1 in 659,
Football at 1 in 4233
Soccer at 1 in 5768,
and most challenging of all is Basketball at 1 in 11771.
To throw some more numbers in there to see how unlikely these statistics really are,
the odds of you correctly guessing a four-digit pin code are 1 in 10000 *Check his pinned comment* and the odds of you bowling a
perfect 300 point game are 1 in 11,500.
But all of these are more likely than you getting struck by lightning,
which you have a 1 in 12,000 lifetime chance of happening to you in the US.
If your skills at golfer are average,
then you have a roughly 1 in 12,500 chance of hitting a hole-in-one at the golf course,
which is still much more likely than you getting murdered in U.S,
which you only have a 1 in 18,000 chance of per year.
We're starting to get into the pretty unlikely events now,
so with that being said,
you only have a 1 in 54,000 chance of dying from a bee sting,
the odds of you dating a supermodel are unfortunately only 1 in 88,000
and the odds of you becoming the CEO of a Fortune 500 company are based on what degree you hold.
MBAs have a 1 in 135,000 chance,
engineers have a 1 in 164,000 chance,
and lawyers have only a 1 in 386,000 chance,
which is less likely than you getting killed in a firework accident at
1 in 340,000.
The next time you're playing poker, you should know that the odds of you being dealt a Royal Flush
are just 1 in 649,740
which is only slightly more probable than their risk of the asteroid,
2017 YZ1, impacting Earth on June 30th, 2047,
which is a 1 in 670,000 chance.
Let's fast forward ahead to the very unlikely events that probably won't ever happen to you or anybody else that you know.
The odds of you getting killed by a terrorist in the US are just 1 in 4,000,000
and the risk of you getting eaten by a shark are even lower at just 1 in 8,000,000.
You have a kind of surprising 1 in 10,000,000 chance of becoming the President of the United States if you're a US citizen,
which is even more likely than you dying in a commercial plane crash at the very very low odds of only 1 in 11,000,000.
But we can keep going to even more ludicrously unlikely events,
like your risk of getting killed by an asteroid impact
at just 1 in 74,817,000.
So you're literally more likely to get hit by an asteroid and die than you are to win the jackpot of the Powerball lottery,
where the odds are a staggering
1 in 175,000,000.
Back in 2016, the Powerball jackpot reached 1.6 billion dollars
and you stood a better chance of winning that
than you ever would have at winning the comparatively small
1,000,000 dollar Grand Prize of the McDonald's Monopoly game
at just 1 in 451,000,000!
But even still, there are people that these statistically unlikely events actually have happened to,
but the next events are so unlikely that they may never happen to anybody in history
like picking a perfect NCAA bracket
at a chance of just 1 in 128 billion.
NASA claims that the odds of you getting killed by a falling satellite are just 1 in 21 trillion
And if you haven't studied for that test coming up in a few days,
you should know that the odds of you passing a 100 question multiple choice exam by guessing on every question
are only 1 in 750 trillion.
But the most unlikely thing that I'll be talking about in this video that could happen to you seems pretty mundane at first;
Shuffling the same deck of 52 cards and getting the same order of cards twice.
The odds of you doing this are roughly
1 in 80 unvigintillion,
or 1 in 8.0658*10^67.
or 8 with 67 zeros written in front of it.
There are more ways to arrange a deck of cards than there are atoms on Earth
Which means that every time you've shuffled a deck , it's very likely that
exact order of cards has never before been seen in human history and likely never will be again.
But the best way that anybody has ever described this, in my opinion,
was a user called Leofric on a Reddit thread that I've linked in the description.
His quote roughly reads as follows:
8.0658*10^67. is such an enormous number
Imagine that you set a timer for that many seconds.
Stand on the equator,
and take a step forward every 1 billion years
When you've circled the entire Earth once,
take a drop of water out of the Pacific Ocean and repeat.
When the Pacific Ocean is empty,
lay a sheet of paper down,
refill the Pacific, and repeat.
When your stack of paper reaches the Sun,
look at your timer.
It seems to have barely changed.
You started with 8.0658*10^67 seconds
and now you STILL have 8.0630*10^67 seconds still remaining.
To kill the time further,
you start doing something else.
Shuffle a deck of cards and deal yourself five cards every billion years.
Each time you get a royal flush,
buy yourself a lottery ticket.
Each time that ticket hits a jackpot
throw a grain of sand into the Grand Canyon.
When the Grand Canyon is full,
take one ounce of rock from Mount Everest,
empty the Grand Canyon, and start the process all over again.
When Everest has been completely removed from the map,
check the timer again.
There is STILL barely any change.
It's now at 5.364*10^67 seconds remaining.
You would have to repeat this entire, enormous process
256 times to run out the timer to zero.
The reason this is so complicated is because of a mathematical principle called Factorials.
You can figure out how many combinations at deck of 52 cards can be arranged into by multiplying
52 by 51 by 50 by 49 and so on
until you get down to one
That's how you get a number as ridiculous as this.
So the math that goes into figuring out something like this
is one of the most confusing things that I've ever
experienced in making videos for this channel
But knowing probability can be extremely rewarding,
the next time you go to a casino, for example
It would be good for you to know that playing blackjack
is where you're most likely to win any kind of money and your starting hand determines
what you should do based on probability.
If your hand starts with 12,
you only have a 31% chance of busting on the next card.
But if you start with a 20,
you're ought to shoot up to 92 percent
and you can see everything else in between.
I learned all of this and more
by taking the course on Games of Chance over at Brilliant.org,
and you can quickly do the same.
Numbers and math don't come easy to me naturally and they never have
and I'm sure many of you probably struggle with the same issue,
But Brilliant can help a lot with making you feel more confident.
Rather than simply telling you numbers and facts about games like Blackjack or Poker
and hoping you memorize them,
they start by teaching you the intuitive ideas behind the probability
that influences what happens.
By playing through their puzzles,
you'll come to understand how Games of Chance actually work and Brilliant has tons of
other relevant courses to help you learn more about how our world really works,
like probability, logic, computer science
and so much more,
all of which similarly guide you along as you build up your core knowledge.
You can take as many of these incredibly design courses as you want
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Check out these other videos of RealLifeLore, get Brilliant, and subscribe. :)