Mr Speaker, I am pleased to report today to the House
on a UK economy that has grown in every year since 2010.
These new figures from the Office
for Budget Responsibility are the best indication
we have of the state of the UK economy.
The headline is that over the next five years,
the UK economy will be a little bit sluggish still.
And the public finances will be improving, but improving
slowly.
Looking at the growth forecast, the figures for last year,
2017, have been upgraded to 1.7% growth.
We knew that, because the data was already out.
For this year, 2018, again, a very small increase, up to 1.5%
from 1.4%.
Then there's no change in 2019, 2020, and very small downgrades
for 2021 and 2022.
So overall, the amount of growth overall
over the five-year period, about the same as in November.
Taxes have been coming into the Exchequer faster than expected.
And the OBR confirmed that Chancellor
was going to have a windfall this year of about 5
billion pounds.
That's 5 billion pounds lower borrowing,
about 45 billion pounds, compared with the 50 billion
it expected as recently as the November budget.
This means that the level of debt in the economy
is going to be falling slowly as a share of national income
from this year onwards, really tiny falls at first,
and then slightly bigger falls over the next few years.
With about 5 billion pounds to play with,
if these figures are confirmed in the budget in November,
then Philip Hammond, the Chancellor
will have some scope to probably increase public spending.
It's not a big increase in public spending.
5 billion pounds is tiny compared with the overall size
of the economy.
But it might just give him enough cash
in the autumn to stop a crisis in the NHS over the winter
or to tide things over for social care,
just a little bit of money to play with.