Do you think the market's right to be skeptical. That's all. You might be able to even meet what they pledged that they would do.
Well which has to be reasonable rich tradition that suddenly opens and unleash millions of bottles additional oil and food
shut off. So functioning issues should be raised in Europe. Nothing on U.S. Dollar Index condition. If Oprah decided she had
a million and a half hours per day it used to go for six hundred forty eight thousand in one or two months from now when the
demand comes around here. Then you have no additional capacity. Would you basically open to China not replace Russia. That is
the bottom line. No matter how many meetings you product Shery Ahn your most producer with seven months with exports from
Russia cannot be decreased by wallpaper. There is no two ways of modern.
So that is in a world already tight that China is buying less and consuming less. Dr. Fisher OK what happens then when all
these stimulus measures that Beijing is putting in place start to work. Does the world have enough oil to account for a
recovering China. The answer is no you don't. Having a horn you would have a
supply issue. There's some elephant in the room that we did not discuss. Is
what's going to happen to be wrong. Sanctions. Iran sanctions issue. You want to bring in one and a half million barrels of
oil to the market within three months. But fundamentally 50 million barrels per day was to be on the
inventory on land. And she's got to make them want to change very much. But time is running out. If the Iranians don't sign
an agreement with the US in June or July or August in the tribal regions of the Congress in September the campaign begins. And by
midterm election the Democrats will definitely lose one of those elements of the Congress. So you have to have a deal in a month
or two otherwise vision gets even worse. The on under prices will go higher.
You need to go to a place these oil producers with the oil prices where they are. Look at a chart which we just showed a
second ago as well about how these Gulf produces are trading well above their fiscal break evens. And so the question is why
would they want to rock the boat. Well you know I know for short phone conversation with the
minister as high level people. Nobody is happy about these points that high because I live here. They think that it speeds
up move away from one issue demand destruction. Everybody is happy about 90 dollars a Vonnie Quinn which is the
price of oil. Would it be if there is supply. Demand fundamentals be reluctant at the moment. The price to being
declined tonight. You pay 30 dollars extra because of I mean I shouldn't even brush it off because Russia is poorer. Russia is
making more money than they did before. So it is be basically a fundamentally wrong policy through some sanction or compression
oil that is going to put in place cut off supplies from Russia. Reminds come up with Yvonne Man. Unfortunately he got well if
not supply for the Europeans want to pay is fine with the rest of the world. After all the same reason for over 40 years you've
talked about the shock of what's really happened with the shale. It was almost at one stage swing production element here. Could
that be a big upswing in shale for instance which might be able to actually take some of this heat out of the price before the
damage before the Russia crisis. Do you expect concerns to continue for another 20 years of growth in the peak for 2014 5.
So this year 800000. But that will be accrued 400000 barrels NGL. Basically one million bathroom liquids will be added next
year maybe 1 million. This is not something that you continue to see growing. Maybe another 320 for another million. And DAX
would be the end of the road. It would be a big Xi Jinping at these prices. You have 40 50 percent different returns. So
everybody is doing maximum what they want. Well the problem is that too much share buybacks Xi Jinping which is actually
thinking the rate for the upstream investment professional. But there are limitations. I'm sure it is on the gas side. There is
no limit on their own side. The different limitations. Dr. Fisher OK. Just your your outlook here in oil prices. Not
not just this year. Let's let's look. Two or three years down the road. Is there a high likelihood that oil remains north of
100 bucks. Given everything that you laid out for that for us that these last few minutes herself remains above 100 bucks
these next few years. I think if you want to sanction Russia
for part of sanctions would be rogue Russians are exporting. But if you put into place the insurance constraints
Chinese Russian word then you can do the shorter sugar or in order to be. And then you would get prices were very high for
years north of a hundred dollars. As long as this battle with Russia
continues as soon as issues and Russia are resolved. Then you would get substantial
lower prices down if indeed Iran is gone. Then you could see Turkey has been known as dropping the price of oil right away.
What is to deal with Iran is not known. Do you have another impetus for higher oil prices.