So after the release of the new Dune trailer and with the film's marketing finally starting,
there's still one question on everyone's mind. Will Denis Villeneuve's film be
a success at the box office and will we get a Dune sequel. In this video, I'm going to be
discussing all the angles surrounding this question and weighing in on how well the
film could do when it comes out this October. Before I get into it though, if you want to
see much more videos on DUNE leading up to it's release date, then don't forget to
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But without further a do, lets discuss whether Dune can really be successful.
So at the height of the pandemic, one theory that began to circulate is that
audience demand would enable more doubtful box office bets to over-perform in the aftermath.
Though the US isn’t fully clear, most of North American movie theaters are now open,
and the back half of 2021 has an overflow of major titles. Unfortunately, the booming
theatrical recovery many foresaw has yet to materialize and even prior to the pandemic,
Dune was a high-risk prospect at the box office. It's an $160 million sci-fi epic
based on a dense 1965 novel with one failed cinematic adaptation already in its history.
But hailing from acclaimed director Denis Villeneuve and featuring a remarkably
talented ensemble cast headlined by Timothée Chalamet and Zendaya, it remains to be seen
if the ambitious film, which is meant to be the first in a two-part series that will
also include a HBO Max spinoff show, has captured the attention of general audiences.
So what factors need to go exactly right for Dune to reach its best case scenario?
Well, the main hurdle for Dune is that despite reputation, the science-fiction genre is not
a consistent blockbuster draw for casual moviegoers today. The film’s artistic
pedigree and talent involved is great, but Villeneuve is also responsible for
the critically lauded Blade Runner 2049, which flopped with just $260 million on a budget of
similar numbers. And to be clear, Blade Runner 2049 is one of my favourite films of the last 10
years, so like anyone who enjoyed that film, I really wanted it to do well.
But it’s difficult to escape that comparison with another high-concept film on the horizon.
You can barely count on one hand the number of successful sci-fi franchises in
Hollywood, and while Denis and the cast are absolutely amazing at what they do,
and will no doubt deliver on quality, it will be an uphill battle to convince families to see
Dune. And that’s where most sci-fi films fail. When you’re dealing with a massive
budget, any film, regardless of genre, needs demographic multipliers to achieve success and
sci-fi is traditionally a very narrow audience, especially hardcore sci-fi
like Dune. Another issue facing the film is the longterm scheme of it's release is the list of
high-profile features it must contend with on the schedule. Originally slated in the better
window of December 2020, Dune‘s delay and move to October 22nd has forced it into
a more crowded marketplace that includes No Time To Die, Halloween Kills,
Jackass Forever, Last Night in Soho and Marvel’s Eternals. Now while Dune will probabaly do better
than half of the films on this list a few big names like No Time To Die and The Eternals
will take a chunk from it's overall run, especially in the climate we are in with the
pandemic. As much as I hate to say it, to be a hit, Dune will have to appeal to the
same audience that makes up the Star Wars and Star Trek fanbase, and that’s an extremely
difficult problem to crack. Dune needs a grand worldwide release
with very little competition and it's hard to see that happening as many of us wanted.
But while most of these are problems that Dune would always face, further complicating
Dune‘s quest for commercial success is its simultaneous release on HBO Max for 31
days alongside its theatrical release. It’s generally agreed upon that the day-and-date
streaming component has effected Black Widow‘s ticket sales, though Marvel
blockbuster is still the fastest film to surpass $150 million domestic in the
pandemic and stands at $315 million worldwide at this particular moment. Still, the sentiment
is that its ability to generate long-term playability have been offset with its Disney+
availability. So will that be the case for Dune? I personally think it could go
either way. For example, if you’re a fan whose excitement level for Dune is already high,
you’re probably going to ignore the small screen component on HBO Max, at least
for the first viewing. If you love it, you’ll watch it again on HBO Max.
We saw that Day-and-date availability didn’t hurt Godzilla vs. Kong, but at the same time it may
have hurt Mortal Kombat‘s theatrical hopes a bit. Dune is looking at a more complicated situation
and likely needs to surpass an opening weekend benchmark of success to have
a shot at earning at or near its mark. Buzz, surrounding conversations and the box office
all have to be better than expected to be considered a success but anything over
$50 million in its opening weekend is still a good number in this environment. I know that
we shouldn’t only judge the film on its opening weekend as it may have legs, but
it's crucial to note the importance of the movie’s performance in regards to the studio’s ability
to leverage the IP moving forward. We’ve seen many promising franchises
fail to get off the launchpad in recent years and with Dune being billed by WB as a 'Part I'
and Dune: The Sisterhood moving forward on HBO Max, the film’s success or
failure has ripple effects throughout the studio. This first movie sets the
tone and the ability to draw financial resources to launch further content.
There's no secret, Dune has an uphill battle as a commercial franchise-starter.
But there are a handful specific ways that Warner Bros can help usher the movie into
profitability and beyond. For me, they need to focus on multiple things to sell
this to the general audience. They need to emphasize the great reviews, use more of the
ensemble cast, how the film is being led by a marquee director, that the project
has a high-concept pitch but that it also has escapist fun with the marketing. Up until more
recently the marketing said, this is Dune and you should come and see this incredible world
that you’ve never seen before. But audiences don’t care as much about that as
they did a decade ago. However, the film’s second trailer did do a better
job at conveying the core story, which will see Timothee Chalamet's Paul Atreides unknowingly
represent an oppressive force fall in love and potentially switch sides.
I honestly believe that Warner Bros should focus even more into this aspect and begin promoting
Zendaya’s Chani as a co-protagonist to Chalamet’s. Say what you will about misleading marketing,
but if the movie is fantastic, as we expect it to be, audiences don’t mind
getting tricked. I think a potential final trailer,
either timed to the movie’s debut at the Venice Film Festival with glowing reviews
or attached to No Time to Die, should push the idea that Dune will be a blast
at the movies. The first trailer went to great lengths to highlight the movie's talented cast
and that should continue to be a focus moving forward as audiences may not show
up for one actor they like, but might buy a ticket if there’s many actors they like.
The odds are obviously against Dune. But if there’s any studio that’s able to pull it off,
it’s WB, which has a long history of selling unconventional big films into genuine events.
What they have done with HBO Max is not gonna help that prospect though
and Warner have made some bad desicions over the years with marketing and creative control.
It doesnt look like that's the case with Dune and the execs have been changing at
the studio, so hopefully, this is a sign of the right things being put in place.
To make things clear, if Dune earns around $400 million plus worldwide while garnering
strong critical reviews and positive word-of-mouth from general audiences, it
can still be considered a success even without tripling the production budget at the box office
as most studios like to do with big budget tentpoles. I'm sure many paople inclusing
myself to some degree, want this film to make $700 million plus. And while the
quality of the film may deserve that, it's very unlikely in the climate of things. I
personally think Dune has the potential to make $400-500 million to warrant more entries in this
franchise and that the overall buzz and again, quality, will lead to memebers of
the general audience wanting to find out what that is. Think of how Avatar intrigued
people but just on a much lower scale becuase of the pandemic and distribution. I hope this
does happen and maybe it will even surprise us and make more.
But they were my thoughts on the potential success of Denis Villeneuve's Dune. Overall,
I do think it's great that we are finally seeing the marketing kick off in a big way
for the new adaptation of Frank Herbert's world, and hopefully we'll all be able to
see it on the big screen later this year. But with all of these points made, can it
really do well enough to warrant a sequel. I'm really hoping so, but I guess we will soon
find out. Let me know down below in the comments section how well you personally
think Dune will do at the box office, alongside your own
thoughts on all the points I have raised. For more videos surrounding DUNE leading up to
it's release this year, then subscribe to the channel and turn on your notifications.
Also if you enjoyed this video remember to leave a like rating
and follow me on social media via the links in the description. I will be continuing to
cover news and topics for DUNE whenever new information comes out alongside episodes of
my road to Dune series very soon, so look out for all of these uploads. But anyway,
I hope you guys enjoyed it, I've been Cortex and as always make some noise.