ANALYST ON WHAT WE WITNESSED
TODAY ON DAY 27 OF RUSSIA'S
INVASION OF UKRAINE.
JOINING ME NOW IS ROB LEE, HE'S
A FORMER MARINE CORPS INFANTRY
OFFICER, AND AN EXPERT ON
RUSSIAN DEFENSE POLICY.
HE IS CURRENTLY A SENIOR FELLOW
AT THE FOREIGN POLICY RESEARCH
INSTITUTE, MISTER LEE, THANK
YOU FOR JOINING US, IT'S GOOD
TO SEE THIS EVENING.
I WANT TO ASK YOU ABOUT A
SENIOR PENTAGON OFFICIAL
TELLING REPORTERS, TODAY, THAT
THE RUSSIAN MILITARY HAS LOST
MORE THAN 10% OF ITS COMBAT
POWER THAT WAS SENT INTO
UKRAINE, THERE IS NO INDICATION
THAT REINFORCEMENTS ARE BEEN
BROUGHT IN FROM RUSSIA.
WE DO KNOW THAT THEY'VE BEEN
TRYING TO RECRUIT PEOPLE INTO
THE MILITARY.
TALK TO BE ABOUT THIS IDEA OF
LOSING 10% OF YOUR FIGHTING
FORCE.
IN MILITARY TERMS, THAT'S
ACTUALLY A TURNING POINT.
>> YEAH, IT'S SIGNIFICANT
BECAUSE --
HE WANTS TO SEE CITIES, HE
WANTS TO CIRCLE CITIES,
PROBABLY ODESSA, AND THEY WANT
TO FURTHER DEGRADE THE
UKRAINIAN MILITARY.
IN EVERY SINGLE, WHITE RUSHES
FACING ATTRITION, AND THE MORE
IT SETS, AND THE MORE
LIMITATIONS THEY HAVE.
CAN THEY ACTUALLY TAKE BIG
CITIES OF KYIV WHICH WOULD
REQUIRE ADDITIONAL CASUALTIES.
THE FIGURES WE'RE SEEING ARE
BEEN BACKED UP BY OPEN SOURCE
INFORMATION ON THE NIMBLE OF
DESTROYED OR CAPTURED VEHICLES,
WALLS INDICATING THAT RUSSIA IS
GOING TO REALLY STRUGGLE IN
FURTHER OPERATIONS, FOR WEEKS
AND WEEKS AT A TIME.
AND WE'RE FACING A NUMBER OF
LIMITATIONS AT THIS POINT.
>> THE KREMLIN DOES A REPORT ON
HOW MANY RUSSIAN TROOPS HAVE
DIED, THEY DO GIVE OUT NUMBERS,
BUT THEY TEND TO BE VERY LOW,
WE GET MUCH HIGHER NUMBERS ON
THE UKRAINIAN GOVERNMENT.
WE HAD A VERY MIDDLE OF THE
ROAD ESTIMATE FROM U.S.
INTELLIGENCE.
YESTERDAY, A PRO KREMLIN NEWS
OUTFIT BRIEFLY REPORTED THAT
10,000 SOLDIERS HAVE BEEN
KILLED.
SUDDENLY BACK REFERENCE WAS
QUICKLY REMOVED BY THE WEBSITE.
WHAT DO YOU MAKE OF THAT?
THESE NUMBERS SOUND REALLY
REMARKABLE FOR A MAJOR, LONG
STANDING ARMY LIKE THE RUSSIAN
ARMY.
>> YEAH, IT'S HARD TO TELL.
IT COULD BE JUST A HACK, IT
COULD BE AN INFLUENCE OPERATION
FOR THE UKRAINIANS, WHO
OBVIOUSLY KNOW WHAT THEY'RE
DOING IN TERMS OF INTELLIGENCE.
OR IT COULD'VE JUST BEEN A
MISTAKE AND THE ACTUAL FACTUAL
INFORMATION THAT WAS PUBLISHED,
IT'S HARD TO TELL.
WE KNOW THE RUSSIAN MILITARY IS
TAKING THE HEAVY CASUALTIES, WE
CAN SEE THIS FROM DESTROYED
VEHICLES, FROM DESTROYED
CONVOYS.
--
IT'S NOT SOMETHING THEY FACE IN
THE --
IN 2014 2015 UKRAINE, IT WAS --
AFTER WEEK IN UKRAINE THIS TIME,
IS GREATER THAN THE LAST THREE
WARS COMBINED.
THAT WAS WEEKS AGO, AND NOW THE
FIGURES ARE OBVIOUSLY MUCH
GREATER.
SO EVEN IF THAT FIGURE, I DON'T
KNOW THE VERACITY OF IT, BUT
IT'S SOMEWHERE IN THE BALLPARK
OF WHAT THE ACTUAL CASUALTY
FIGURES ARE.
WE TALK ABOUT THAT, THAT'S A
SUBSTANTIAL SHARE OF THE
RUSSIAN INVASION FORCE.
NOT KIND OF ATTRITION, IT
REALLY AFFECTS WET RUSSIAN
FORCES CAN DO AT THIS POINT, TO
LIMIT THE GOALS THEY CAN
ACHIEVE.
>> LET ME ASK YOU ABOUT AIR
SUPPORT, AND AIR FORCE.
THE UKRAINIANS DO HAVE AN AIR
FORCE, THEY DO HAVE TRAINED
PILOTS, THE NEW YORK TIMES HAD
SOME INTERESTING REPORTING
ABOUT THE UKRAINIAN AIR FORCE,
AND HOW IT'S OPERATING IN,
QUOTE, BUT THE TIMES SAYS, NEAR
TOTAL SECRECY.
ONE OF THE PILOTS THEY SPOKE TO
SAID, QUOTE, IN EVERY FIGHT
WITH RUSSIAN JETS, THERE IS NO
EQUALITY, THEY ALWAYS HAVE FIVE
TIMES MORE PLANES IN THE AIR.
DESPITE BEING OUTNUMBERED,
UKRAINIAN PAUL PILOTS HAVE BEEN
SUCCESSFUL AT PREVENTING WIDER
BOMBINGS.
THEY'VE INTERCEPTED SOME
MISSILES.
TALK TO ME ABOUT THIS, THEY ARE
VASTLY OUTNUMBERED BY RUSSIAN
SHIPS, HOW IS THE OUTLOOK FOR
THE AIR FORCE IN UKRAINE?
>> SO, THAT'S ONE THING, IT'S
NOT FULLY KNOWN, IT'S KIND OF
HARD TO TELL FROM THE SOURCES.
PARTIALLY BECAUSE I THINK THEY
WANTED THAT WAY.
BUT THEY'RE MAKING LIFE
DIFFICULT FOR RUSSIA.
IN TERMS OF INVASION, FOR
RUSSIA, THEY WANT TO HAVE THEIR
SUPREMACY, WHERE THEY HAVE FIRE
AIRCRAFT, BOMBER AIRCRAFT,
OPERATING OVER UKRAINIAN FORCES
AT ALL TIMES, BEING ABLE TO
BOMB, THEM THE RECONNAISSANCE,
ALL THIS KIND OF THINGS.
AND WE CAN'T DO THAT
EFFECTIVELY ARE NOW, BECAUSE
UKRAINE'S AIR DEFENSES STILL
ATTACKED.
ALSO BECAUSE UKRAINIAN AIR
FORCE IS STILL OPERATING, AND
STILL CONTESTING THE
ENVIRONMENT.
ALL THAT MAKES IT MORE
DIFFICULT FOR RUSSIAN AIR FORCE,
AND REALLY KEY PART OF THIS IS
THAT INTRODUCTION MISSIONS, A
REALLY KEY MISSION THAT THE
RUSSIAN AIR FORCE WOULD LIKE TO
TAKE PART, IT WOULD INCLUDE
PREVENTING UKRAINIANS FROM
REINFORCING LOCATIONS, RESUPPLY
IN CITIES, ALL THIS KIND OF
THINGS.
IT'S CLEAR THAT NOT ABLE TO DO
THAT VERY EFFECTIVELY.
PROBABLY LIKELY PART OF THIS IS
BECAUSE UKRAINIANS ARE STILL
OPERATING, AND STILL MAKING THE
ENVIRONMENT CONTESTED, AND
MAKING LIFE DIFFICULT FOR
RUSSIAN AIR FORCE, WHICH IS
STILL PART OF THE REASON WHY
UKRAINE IS RESISTING STILL
TODAY, AND WHY THEY'RE STILL
HAVING SUCCESS.
>> ROB, THANK YOU FOR YOUR