The Iranian air force on paper is one of the biggest air arms in the world. Its order of battle
includes around 350 fighters, more than twice as many as the Royal Air Force possesses.
But most of Iran’s fighters are old and outdated. The ones that aren’t old are
just new copies of old designs. The air force’s squadrons fly American-made F-14s,
F-5s and F-4s dating from the 1970s, some 1980s-vintage MiG-29s and Sukhoi
fighter-bombers and a few J-7s that the Islamic Republic bought from China during the 1990s.
Iran’s only recent acquisitions are locally-made, reverse-engineered
copies of the F-5. But the country repeatedly has tried to buy new fighters, if all the news reports
and rumors are true. What follows is a list of fighters Iran reportedly wanted but couldn’t get.
Barred from acquiring new fighters, Iran has resorted to upgrading and copying its older
planes. F-4s, F-14s and Su-22s have received structural repairs and new sensors and weapons.
Meanwhile, Iranian engineers have torn apart, studied and copied the simple,
lightweight F-5 and produced at least two kinds of clone.
The Saeqeh apparently mates the fuselage of an
unflyable F-5 with new twin tail fins replacing the old,
single fin. Iran reportedly has built nine Saeqehs since the type first appeared in 2004.
In 2018 Iran revealed another F-5 clone, the two-seat Kowsar. Iranian state media claimed
the Kowsar is 100-percent locally-made, but as with the Saeqeh it’s possible that Iran is basing
the “new” fighter on old, stored F-5 airframes rather than building airframes from scratch.
Frustrated for decades in its attempts to buy new fighters, Iran might have no choice but
to endlessly upgrade old planes. But there are limits to what upgrades can achieve.
An F-4 with a better radar is still an F-4: sluggish, hard-to-fly and decided non-stealthy.
Likewise, a copy of an F-5 still performs just like an F-5 does
and probably could not match the more modern warplanes that Iran’s rivals operate.
Since the mid-1990s, however, Iran was no longer able to buy new combat aircraft for the IRIAF.
No matter how elaborate its military exercises, the average age of the
IRIAF’s fighters is now 50 years old. This applies to the largest segment of the IRIAF,
the several dozen flyable F-5E/F Tiger and several dozen F-4D/E Phantoms. Their total
strength outnumbers the smaller air force’s of the GCC countries who are Iran’s sworn enemies.
Adding to this fleet are three dozen MiG-29UB’s and an almost equal number of airworthy
F-14A’s left over from the original 79 Tomcats delivered by the US before the Shah’s downfall.
In a genuine feat against the odds, the Islamic Republic established a
vast state-owned aerospace sector that can repair and maintain all of the armed forces’ aircraft.
There were also efforts at manufacturing fighter jets but the results were dismal. The so-called
“Kowsar” and “Saeqeh” multirole fighters are just F-5F Tigers with superficial changes.
Attempts at launching the production of
lightweight fighter-trainers showed a little promise but never flourished.
The combined pressure of attrition, small budgets,
and having little access to imported spare parts means the IRIAF’s strength is never what it seems.
Contrasting Iran’s success at building its military drone fleet,
there are inherent risks of maintaining the same dated airframes throughout the 2020s.
Foremost is the deterioration of their flight performance that risks both
the pilots and their machines. Should an actual war erupt over
the Persian Gulf pitting Iran against a coalition of US-allied air forces,
the IRIAF can do its part fending off hostile navies and holding key choke points.
But its best aircraft are still in grave danger from the F-22,
the F-35A/B, the F/A-18, and the latest F-15 variants.
The best course of action for the IRIAF is finding a way to import new fighter aircraft
from either China or Russia. With a sweeping United Nations arms embargo scheduled to be
lifted by October 2020, Tehran has a small window it can exploit for modernizing its air force.
(That is, if it raises its annual military budget to cover importing weapons from
abroad.) The only viable combat aircraft worth purchasing in bulk from China is the FC-1,
also known as the JF-17 Thunder manufactured by Pakistan’s state-owned aerospace company.
The FC-1 is supersonic and designed to be armed with various munitions,
from air-to-air to anti-ship cruise missiles. Upgrades such as an AESA
radar inside its nose cone are offered by its manufacturer.
Russia, on the other hand, has a better selection for a customer like Iran. Depending on how
the IRIAF envisions its warfighting role, the Su-30SME or the Su-35 are both combat proven.
It’s also possible to structure a deal for them around bartering and loans in lieu of
currency payments. If cost is such a headache, Sukhois can be disregarded for proven MiG-29’s
or the latest MiG-35. Whatever its choices, the IRIAF have a gloomy feature ahead.