The Russian bear is on the march - or so Russian propaganda would tell you! To say
the war in Ukraine hasn’t worked out like the Kremlin was hoping would be putting it
mildly - and one key element of the Russian war machine is almost completely missing in action.
Why is the Russian Air Force not being utilized in Ukraine?
At first, it seemed like Russia was going to rout Ukraine - after all,
one was a former military superpower with the world’s largest supply of nuclear weapons,
and the other was a nation that had been through a lot of political upheaval and had never been
tested on the battlefield. The power differential was so big that most people assumed Ukraine would
be overrun within weeks and that NATO nations on its border might be next. But then, something
happened after almost six months of fighting - Ukraine’s military, bolstered by powerful and
modern weapons from NATO, struck back and started taking back one conquered city after another.
People waited nervously for Russia to strike back…and then it didn’t happen.
Russian forces fought bitterly, but many retreated. After all,
the Russian military was understaffed, underequipped, and filled with draftees.
Russia continued to pound Ukraine with missiles, but Ukraine has gotten well used to the procedures
of sheltering from bombs during the early days of the war, and the missiles could
only do so much damage. Russia lacked one key element which would have made these strikes
much more devastating- precision aircraft that could deliver a devastating payload
behind enemy lines. Ukrainian forces watched the skies - but nothing seemed to be coming.
Why did the Russian Air Force go missing at this key moment?
Russia’s main problem is that its Air Force was designed for a very different war. Russia’s Air
Force dates back to pre-revolution days when the Soviets had their own powerful program designed
for a possible World War 3 with the United States and its allies. Much like their nuclear program,
it was invested in heavily - and then barely used, because Russia’s military conquests
didn’t require the use of an Air Force. Most of the invasions the Soviet Union
successfully pulled off were either to their West, in the countries of Eastern Europe,
or to their south in the resource-rich but lightly populated Central Asian republics. They pushed
further south to Afghanistan, but they found only trouble there, and most of their influence outside
Eurasia - in places like Cuba and Vietnam - was largely political rather than military.
So the Soviet Union never faced a major air-based conflict - leaving
Russia without the experience it needs to conduct itself in such a conflict.
Russia’s Air Force is old-fashioned - in every possible way. Much like Russia’s nuclear weapons,
most of its planes are old Cold War models. And that means they’re still based around Russia’s
Cold War doctrine. As the Soviet Union’s power base was an ocean away from the United States,
its air doctrine didn’t place a focus on fighting for air superiority against the
west. The goal of the Soviet Air Force was largely to provide support over key fronts,
taking out enemy ground forces while backed up by ground-based air defenses. They’re critical
for scouting and other missions, but the odds are that the best Russian airplane
would lose a one-on-one dogfight to the best US fighter jet - and it wouldn’t be close.
Because it’s not just the plane - it’s the pilot.
Everyone knows what happens when the US wants to find the best pilots for the
Air Force’s top-secret missions - they go to Top Gun! Yes, those movies were fictional and
the odds are Maverick would have been kicked out long ago after wrecking all those planes.
But they did get a lot of things right - including the elite training that American Air Force pilots
go through. The odds are that the man behind the cockpit of a US fighter jet will have lived and
breathed that plane for a long time. On the other hand, a Russian soldier behind the cockpit might
be…a regular pilot. They lack the specialized training to gain air superiority, and the
specialized aircraft to maintain it and help their troops on the ground. The US has a whole line of
aircraft designed not just to dominate the skies, but to take out ground-based air defenses. These
SEAD Aircraft, also nicknamed the Wild Weasels, are completely absent from Russia’s military.
And the results spoke for themselves.
During the early days of the war, the Russian Air Force was pounding Kyiv - and Kyiv was
fighting back, thanks to NATO-provided aircraft and ground-based air batteries. Countless Russian
aircraft went down in flames, although when asked to provide exact numbers, Russia responded
“Nyet!”. Not only were these very demoralizing losses, but they were very costly. Airplanes are
among the most expensive part of any military assault, and it seemed like the Ukrainians
had their number. So when the assault on Kyiv faltered, Russia changed tactics and started
focusing on consolidating their gains in the East - even annexing some areas under widely condemned
sham referendums. These holdings were largely kept under control by ground troops and vehicles.
After all, you can always draft more troops. You can’t draft more planes.
And then, when the Ukrainians turned the tables, no one was sure what to expect. There were large
Ukrainian battalions coming for cities that Russia claimed - and Putin was boasting that
any attempt to take back the cities would be an attack on Russia itself. So why weren’t
there planes bombing the forces coming for cities like Kherson and Kharkiv? Because the Russian Air
Force…really isn’t an Air Force at all. Russia has powerful and fast planes, sure, but what
they lack is the high-tech intelligence-gathering capabilities that US planes have. Russian planes
are essentially just airborne artillery. They’re sent on bombing missions, based on intelligence
they’re handed by their commander, and they deliver the payload with very little initiative
of their own. Unlike top US flight teams, they’re not able to hunt the enemy independently.
And with the Ukrainian forces, that’s a big problem.
The Ukrainian forces have proven much more savvy and resilient than many expected, and they’re
known for their highly effective battlefield maneuvers. They’ve successfully psyched out the
Russian forces more than once - most famously in the city of Kherson. This was one of the cities
that Russia had annexed, and no one was sure if Ukraine would even attempt to take it back. But
using the highly accurate HIMARS rocket system provided by the United States, Ukraine targeted
supply bridges key to the Russian efforts, cutting them off from critical supplies. Ukrainian forces
then massed near Kherson, causing Russia to rally to defend it - and then attacked and liberated
the city of Kharkiv instead, cutting off another key supply source for Russia. Russia found itself
outnumbered in Kherson, and soon lost that city as well. And based on initial intel from commanders,
the Russian Air Force likely would have bombed the wrong target and made the situation worse.
But the problems with the Russian Air Force don’t end there.
Many of the Russian planes that enter Ukrainian air space don’t come bacl. Kyiv reports that its
military shot down nine Russian warplanes in a two-week period in August and September alone,
and at least five of those losses have been confirmed. Russia remains tight-lipped,
and Ukraine isn’t giving away operation details either, but it’s believed the
weapon responsible is a German self-propelled anti-aircraft gun - meaning that Ukraine
isn’t even risking its own planes to take the Russian ones out of the sky!
But the Russian Air Force didn’t remain grounded.
A few weeks after those losses, they were back in the skies, pounding Ukrainian
cities. The Russian Air Force was mostly targeting stationary Ukrainian positions,
mostly in the country’s east. The targets were largely areas of Ukraine that Russian forces
had recently abandoned - essentially trying to make Ukraine’s recent gains uninhabitable. Would
it work? The initial attack on the small liberated city of Spirne saw two strike aircraft accompanied
by a drone, dropping unguided bombs delivered via parachute. The Ukrainians decided it wouldn’t be
worth shooting them down and just retreated, and it wasn’t clear if any valuable targets were hit.
Other Russian air force hits have been successful - but maybe not as successful as the alternative.
Because there’s one major
problem with the Russian Air Force that might put the final nail in its coffin.
When these planes enter Ukrainian territory, they have to brave the NATO provided air defenses at
Ukraine’s disposal. When planes get shot down, not only are the pilots in danger,
but million-dollar aircraft could wind up destroyed or behind enemy
lines. That could mean Ukraine winds up getting key information on Russia’s
planes - which it would no doubt pass on to its allies in NATO. With their limited capabilities,
this means that using the Air Force might be a bigger risk than it’s worth for Russia.
Especially since they have an alternative that does the same thing.
Russia’s assault on Ukraine has followed a simple pattern. They invade areas,
try to conquer them - and then largely get run out of town by the better-organized Ukrainian
military. But when Ukraine wins the battle on the ground, the war doesn’t end - because Russia then
unleashes a barrage of long-range missiles from Russian territory, designed to pound
the population into submission. It hasn’t worked, as the Ukrainian fighting spirit is as strong as
ever and President Voldomyr Zelenskyy has used the Russian atrocities to rally the world to Ukraine’s
defense. But it has worked to create a climate of fear in many Ukrainian cities including Kyiv.
While the bombing has lessened since the beginning of the war, it seems to step up whenever Putin
suffers a humiliating loss. And unlike Air Force bombing raids, it’s hard for Ukraine to retaliate.
For now.
In recent months, Ukraine has gotten bolder - not just striking back against Russian forces and
weapons systems in Ukraine, but across the border. And as Ukraine gets closer to the border by taking
back more regions that Putin had annexed, it becomes easier to hit Russian soil. And their
jets are far more effective and efficient than their Russian alternative - equipped with many
of the same intelligence-gathering tools that NATO jets have. They don’t have the
numbers advantage - it’s estimated that Russia has around 300 warplanes in range of Ukraine,
while Ukraine only has around a hundred. But Ukraine is likely to win any air battle
quite decisively, thanks to their support from anti-aircraft weapons on the ground.
But numbers can be deceiving.
Despite some grousing about the budget from Republicans, the odds are good that NATO
and the United States will continue to supply Ukraine with the weapons it needs to fight off
Russia for as long as possible. Russia, on the other hand, only has a finite domestic
supply to draw from- and it’s growing thinner and thinner. They also don’t have a reliable
source for new planes - most of their allies like Iran don’t have a strong Air Force,
and China has been increasingly unwilling to commit itself to Putin’s war. Which means that
every plane Ukraine manages to strike down is one less Russia has in store for a bigger offensive.
All this means that the Russian Air Force will not be providing the difference in the war. This
makes you wonder, if Putin can’t use his Air Force to win the war, what will he use instead?
For more on Russia’s military troubles, check out “Why Russia’s Only Aircraft Carrier Sucks”,
or watch “The Huge Problem Stopping Russia for Buying Weapons” instead.