hey everybody hello from vegas i thought today would be a great time to talk about bitcoin easy
it's uh fake hey it's a fugazi it's awesome it's a woozy it's a
fairy dust no not really that would just be cruel considering what's going on the market right now
if we go ahead and we zoom out what we can see here on the price is that bitcoin is up a lot
over a long period of time but again over the last eight months you can see that bitcoin has
fallen from 69 000 back in november all the way today to about 23 300 now many people are worried
about the price and they should be that's the thing that moves on a day-to-day basis
but there is a difference between price and value price is the thing that people are willing to
trade on a daily basis but value is actually what is going to hold over the long period of time
if it's a good asset i want to talk about the boomers now the boomers are the largest
generation we have ever had in not just the united states but across the entire industrialized world
this is the life
what with my retirement plan and the few dollars i'd saved i didn't have a thing to worry about
and they are on the verge of retirement this has been coming since 1965 we've
always known that this was the day where the majority of the boomer this was the year where
the majority of the boomers were moved into mass retirement and there are two big outcomes here
the first obviously has to do with labor markets we are losing our largest generation ever our
biggest chunk of workers ever and they're being replaced by a very small generation known as the
zoomers now those are people aged 2 to 22. the problem is is that there just aren't very many
zoomers at all and that gives us a worker shortage in calendar year 2022 of about 400
000 people now there's a lot of things going on in the world that are generating inflationary
pulses but this is by far the most important it's definitely responsible for the majority of
the inflation we're seeing right now it's been coming for decades no one has prepared for it
and it's going to last for years that 400 000 workers shortage we have right now will
increase each and every year until it reaches its peak in 2034 of 900 000 workers per year so
buckle up this is just the nature of the labor market for a while second finance when you
retire you tend to liquidate most of your active portfolio all those savings you've been making
for retirement and that you've put into stocks and bonds you can't take that risk anymore because if
there's a currency crash or a market crash you are screwed because you no longer have income
to make up for the difference so you go into relatively unsexy investments like stocks and
bonds now again we've known that this day was going to come since the last of the boomers
were born in 1965 and we're not ready and this is driving up the cost of capital and unfortunately
it's happening at exactly the same time that the business cycle seems to be turning over as well
now less capital means less money for everything less money for new industrial plant as we reshore
things from east asia less money for job training as we have a very small worker cadre
less money for automation as we have to adapt to the fact that we have fewer workers moving forward
all this drives up the cast of capital capital up more and more and more and more and that is
now the environment that we're in now for most of the country this is bad news labor shortages
higher borrowing rates this is not great but if you happen to be gen x it is our time
to shine because we are now the experienced labor market and there's very few of us so we're seeing
the highest increases in our uh compensation rates ever in american history which is fantastic
also we are moving into that capital rich section of our lives while we're saving for retirement
and if capital costs are high and capital is scarce anyone who does have capital is going
to earn outsized returns so for the remainder of this decade gen x enjoy the moment you've been
waiting for this your entire lives it's finally here and for everyone else suck it up all right
the american political system is like structural inability regardless of where it goes policy wise
to seem to come up with an answer to this because i think people who think trump coming back in 2024
is going to address any of these issues you're out to lunch so yeah well you've hit a good point
because from 1945 to 1955 every imperial power had been smashed the soviet union had built its iron
curtain and for 10 years we had the united states at the height of its relative power versus the
world must the world was devastated and it still took 10 years to build out the system we now know
we're doing anything that might come out of this now the united states has gone home
its military is inappropriate for the job its economy is renationalizing and its politics are
in a in a dither there isn't anyone out there that has the capacity to displace or replace
the united states on the global stage the best you can hope for is some tight regional systems
around powers that are relatively coherent themselves but a global order that does not make
so peter i guess my last question for you is uh this chaotic time
it's difficult to live through something marshall and i always try to reference is that when you're
living through a period of stagnation it's hard to understand as in the people in the 1890s
weren't like we're living in a stagnating period they were just like oh this area it was only in
retrospect they're like wow nothing was happening so for a lot of people who are listening to this i
think the reason we even have an audience a lot of people is because we're giving voice to the forces
that are leading to these feelings of malaise that a lot of people have and they want to know how to
get out of it so is there anything that people can do on an individual level to have hope where
should they look to and then you personally having written these books and understanding these forces
how do you deal with it well i'd say not only do people not realize they're in an error stagnation
until it's over people don't realize they're in a golden age until it's over and from 19
1985 until 2015 that was the fastest period of economic growth ever for everyone we're not
going to have something like that again that was the highlights of globalization and it was great
but it was a moment in time structural it was a moment in time demographically now it's over
all i can tell you is if you're american the next five years are going to be a wild ride yes it's
going to be inflationary yes it's going to be probably also going to be record growth rates
it's a it's an exciting time to be alive i'm not saying that there's not going to be parts of the
world that aren't going to be interesting from an economic point of view but the old rules are gone
and we are literally making up the new ones as we go so if you are aggressive the world is your
oyster right now but just you know pay attention to your security and i'll close with this you
just summed up the political communications problem for the body administration because
whether that clip went viral on twitter where i think it was the press secretary was saying
but look at look at the job growth numbers look at all these different like economic statistics this
goes to your point about fastest growth ever everyone's like yeah but look at five dollar
six dollar gas there's this real there's this these two things are happening in the 70s when
you have like high inflation the economy was also kind of in the crapper so seeing these both at the
same time does not produce a cure we're used to oil going up when the dollar goes down and vice
versa and now they're doing this and that is devastating for a lot of people but not here
you