The nations of Greece and Turkey have shared a long and somewhat mixed history, alternating
between periods of conflict and hostility towards each other, to times of peace and
understanding between the two Republics.
From Greece’s split from the Ottoman Empire and establishing of its independence in 1832,
all the way to the ongoing high tensions between the two during NATO meetings in 2020, these
two seem to always have something against each other – and with such a deeply complex
history, it’s easy to understand why.
Today, we’ll be taking you through some of the key factors in this complicated international
relationship, as well as examining which of these two nations holds the greater military
superiority, and which would more likely come out on top if they were ever engaged in another
full-on conflict.
At the time of writing, Turkey and Greece are in the midst of an ongoing border crisis,
with asylum seekers travelling across the Greek-Turkish border being met with violence
as they attempt to flee the escalating conflict in Syria, which also shares a border with
Turkey.
One such instance of violence against Turkish migrants can be seen in a video released in
March 2020.
In this video, Greek coastguards can be seen opening fire on a rubber dinghy full of refugees
off the coast of Bodrum.
This comes as a result of Turkey’s President Erdoğan announcing he would be opening the
Greek-Turkish border, which had been previously prevented under an agreement between Turkey
and the EU made in 2016.
That’s an overview of the current situation, and why there are currently once again high
tensions between Greece and Turkey, which, unless resolved peacefully, could potentially
lead to another military engagement between these two nations.
So, what would that look like?
Well, before we take a look at that, it’s important to remember that Greece and Turkey
have had several wars in the past.
The most recent of these took place in the aftermath of World War I, as the Ottoman Empire
was partitioned.
In case you were unsure, The Ottoman Empire existed between the 14th century and early
20th, and controlled large portions of West Asia, North Africa and Southeast Europe.
Between the years 1919 and 1922, the Second Greco-Turkish War was fought, and eventually
resulted in a population exchange between the two nations, as well as certain lands
that had previously been a part of the Ottoman Empire being absorbed by the Republic of Turkey
from the Kingdom of Greece, as it was known at the time.
Over the course of the conflict, Turkey deployed a total of approximately 421,000 troops, whereas
Greece (along with additional support from the Allied Forces and volunteers from Armenia)
had a strength of around 620,000, yet the end result was still a decisive Turkish victory.
Comparing that to modern figures, the Hellenic Armed Forces – that’s Greece’s military,
composed of the Hellenic National Defence General Staff, Army, Navy and Air Force – currently
consists of approximately 105,000 active personnel, as of a 2018 estimate.
It’s important to highlight that's only a peacetime figure; during a period of active
war (say, with Turkey, if the border crisis hypothetically escalates) the combined numbers
of the Hellenic Army, Navy, Air Force and National Defence General Staff could reach
over 750,000 people.
Overseen by the country’s Ministry of National Defence, the Hellenic Armed Forces cost Greece
a staggering €4.230 billion for the fiscal year of 2019, which is equivalent to $4.844
billion USD.
Since 1914, Greece has operated a compulsory conscription into military service for any
men over eighteen years of age, for a minimum period of nine months, meaning if any conflict
with Turkey was to break out, a portion of Greece’s armed forces would be comprised
of young men who are just old enough to drink in their native country.
Meanwhile, Turkey’s Armed Forces, much like Greece’s, also consist of the combined strength
of the nation’s Army, Air Force and Navy.
However, in addition to these, the Gendarmerie General Command – which is a division of
the Turkish government charged with upholding public order, but usually in areas or situations
that fall outside of police jurisdiction, similar to the role of the FBI here in the
US – and the Turkish Coast Guard can, during wartime, become subordinate to the Army and
Navy respectively, effectively making them additional reserves.
Also, similarly to Greece, military service is compulsory for Turkey’s male population,
however the rules there are slightly different.
As well as the age of conscription being between twenty and forty-one rather than eighteen,
Turkey also expects any men who do not hold a four-year university degree to serve a minimum
of twelve active months in the army.
Those with a university degree have the option to either complete a year of service but as
a military reserve, or a shortened six-month tenure as an active private.
At present, the Turkish Armed Forces are the second largest of any NATO-member country,
only beaten by the military force of the United States of America.
As of 2015, it was estimated that the total strength of all Turkey’s combined active
military and paramilitary personnel totalled approximately 355,200 people, more than three
times the estimated number of active personnel in Greece three years later in 2018.
The numerical advantages of Turkey’s Active Armed Forces over those of Greece may only
tell us one side of the story, however.
As we previously mentioned, during wartime Greece could potentially amass a force of
approximately 750,000 across the entire Hellenic Armed Forces, enough to oppose the estimated
Turkey currently has in active service - though with reserves factored in, Turkey’s total
forces also rise to 733,900 service members.
So, if conflict was ever to occur between these two adjoining countries over the ongoing
Greek-Turkish border crisis, both Greece and Turkey could possess almost equal military
strength.
And it’s entirely possible that this could happen.
After all, unlike the days of the Greco-Turkish War, current-era warfare is far more advanced,
and therefore can occur almost instantaneously if the relations between both countries at
NATO meetings were to break down completely.
But who would be at a greater advantage?
To answer that, let’s examine it by land, by sea and by air, and compare Greece and
Turkey’s full military capabilities.
Currently with 90,000 troops in active duty during peacetime, the Hellenic Army is dwarfed
in size by the 260,000-strong Turkish Land Forces.
While Greece’s Army could potentially see a wartime increase in size to around 500,000
members, this is only an estimate based on defence data from half a decade ago.
In addition, the Turkish Land Forces are supported by 2,446 tanks, including 397 West German
Leopard 1s and 342 Leopard 2s, 1,532 US M60 Patton tanks and a further 250 Turkish Altay
tanks due to start production in 2023, expected to cost two billion USD.
Meanwhile, there are only a total of 1,355 tanks supporting the troops of the Hellenic
Army, specifically 170 Leopard 2A6 HELs, 183 Leopard 2A4s, 501 Leopard 1A5/GRs, 400 M48A5
MOLFs (molfs) and 101 M60A3 TTS tanks.
In terms of their total quantity of troops and tanks, Turkey has the numerical advantage,
along with an additional 10,139 armoured fighting vehicles of various types, 872 howitzers and
418 multiple launch rocket systems.
On the other hand, the Hellenic Army is supported by – in addition to its tanks – 4,209
IFVs (that’s infantry fighting vehicles) and APCs (armoured personnel carriers), and
4,840 artillery.
That’s the strengths of Greece and Turkey’s armies and their supporting tanks and artillery,
now let’s look at their Navies.
With the Aegean Sea situated directly between their landmasses and the East Mediterranean
shared by both countries, a naval engagement between the two is entirely possible.
On this front, Greece is in possession of the 22nd largest Navy in the world (in terms
of the number of ships it has).
The Hellenic Navy consists of 120 warships, including thirteen frigates, eleven submarines,
nineteen missile boats, ten gunboats, nine tank-landing ships as well as 48 auxiliary
support ships, 27 aircraft and seven MH-60R Seahawk helicopters bought by Greece in 2019
for 600 million USD.
This is combined with an active personnel strength of thirty-thousand.
This figure may be comparatively smaller than Turkey’s 48,600 strong navy (as reported
in 2008) and their fifty-one maritime aircraft, but where Greece stands above their neighbours
is the skill of its Navy – and, by extension, its Air Force’s – fighter pilots.
Ranked by NATO as some of the best in the world, one Greek pilot was even the recipient
of the Top Gun Honours Award.
Occasionally, Turkish jets will violate Greek airspace, and it has been reported that when
Greek pilots engage them in mock dogfights, the skill level of Turkish pilots is said
to have been in decline since 2016.
For some added context, this was the year that, after a failed military coup against
him, Turkish President Erdoğan was forced to arrest several members of the Turkish Armed
Forces who were involved in the attempt to overthrow him.
It would seem that the Hellenic Air Force’s motto of “Always Dominate the Heights”
still holds true today, as of its 30,000 pilots currently active, 11,750 are career officers,
meaning that these are pilots and airmen that have dedicated their lives to the service
of their Air Force.
The Hellenic Air Force currently has over four-hundred planes and helicopters at their
disposal, including 230 total combat aircraft, 154 of which are US General Dynamics F-16
Fighting Falcons, priced at $18.8 million USD per unit.
84 of these particular planes are currently being upgraded to the more advanced F-16 Viper
variant with plans for this to be completed by 2027.
In addition, certain Aegean Islands such as Skyros are currently being used as aircraft
bases by the Hellenic Navy and Air Force, equipped with their own anti-aircraft and
anti-ship weapon systems, meaning that Greece is already well-defended against attack.
Similar to the earlier comparison with the Hellenic Army and Navy’s forces, Turkey’s
Air Force does outmatch Greece’s in numbers, but – if the reports are to be believed
– not in terms of the skill of its pilots.
As of a 2019 estimate, the Turkish Air Force employs double the number of personnel to
Greece at 60,000, with over double their number of manned aircraft at 1,067.
Of these, 245are the same F-16 Fighting Falcon variants used by the Hellenic Air Force, with
an additional 49 F-4 Phantom IIs, costing roughly $2.4 million USD each.
So far, we’ve seen that the sheer difference between Greece and Turkey’s combined militaries
seemingly gives an advantage – at least, a numerical one – to Turkey.
Now, let’s talk about the nuclear option.
Turkey is one of one of five NATO countries involved in their nuclear sharing policy.
In practice, this means that Turkey does not technically possess any of its own nuclear
weapons, but rather shares them with other NATO-member nuclear-armed countries.
At present, the Turkish Armed Forces have a total of forty B61 nuclear bombs housed
at Incirlik Air Base in the city of Adana, and while these bombs are available for use
by Turkey in the event of nuclear conflict, their use has to be approved by NATO.
Being a fellow NATO-member country, Greece would understandably oppose any nuclear action
taken against them, as well as additionally, only being in support of the use of nuclear
weapons on its behalf.
As the bombs are owned by the US anyways, America would never allow Turkey to use these
weapons against Greece.
It’s also worth noting that, given the close proximity of these two countries, any nuclear
engagement against Greece by Turkey would likely result in Turkey itself being caught
in the fallout, putting its own military and civilian population at serious risk and potentially
killing millions.
At present, a conventional war between Greece and Turkey seems unlikely, making it difficult
to know who is at an advantage.
When it comes to the numbers, Turkey seems to have a stronger – or at least a bigger
– military at its disposal.
However, Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis claims that Greece is capable of winning a
potential conflict.
According to a member of both Greece’s Institute for Defense & Security Analysis and the Mediterranean
Centre for Strategic Analysis & Intelligence, “A conventional war is unlikely.
A ‘hybrid’ war like the one we are witnessing now with the use of immigration and propaganda
is more likely to continue.”
Now go check out our other Military Comparison videos, like USA vs North Korea and India
vs Pakistan or our video on The Most Powerful Militaries in 2020.