- [Narrator] This is China covered in pollution last year.
But this year the skies are clear,
that's because the coronavirus epidemic
had brought much of the country to a standstill
for several weeks causing a huge drop in pollutants
like nitrogen dioxide,
a harmful gas that's emitted when burning fossil fuel.
Compared to previous years it's below typical levels.
- If you close down factories or reducing the amount
of cars on the road you're going
to reduce the pollution levels.
And from that we can deduce that the economic activity
has been decreased.
- [Narrator] In early February Chinese president,
Xi Jinping publicly declared a people's war
against the virus,
that extreme measures like shutdowns have prevented people
from returning to work where necessary.
But he also cautioned that those efforts
should not jeopardize economic development.
Now a dramatic change in pollution over the country suggests
that striking that balance could be difficult.
In the past few decades China has grown
to become the world's largest coal consumer.
Its large manufacturing-based economy burns 95%
of the country's coal,
making it the world's biggest emitter of greenhouse gasses.
Usually during the Lunar New Year most industries wind down
for a week and power plants burn a lot less coal.
Coal consumption usually rebounds after the week-long break
which means pollution levels pick up too.
- Because the levels of nitrogen dioxide
in China are so high we can easily detect that from space.
- [Narrator] This is what Wuhan,
the epicenter of the coronavirus usually looks like
after the holiday.
The city is a key producer of automobiles,
electronics and heavy machinery.
But this year the demand
for coal hasn't immediately rebounded since many workers
have been stranded at home in locked down cities,
and nitrogen dioxide levels have dipped.
It's not just Wuhan,
it's the same when you look
at other industrial powerhouses in China.
This is what Shandong and Hebei usually look like
after the holiday.
They're know for churning out everything
from textiles and metals to petrochemicals.
But this year they also weren't spared
from the impact of the epidemic.
While skies were clear in many parts of China,
some cities like Beijing are still shrouded in smog.
The city has recorded high levels of air pollutants.
These fine particles are created
during the chemical reaction of gasses generated
from burning fuel.
Heating systems in Beijing's geography
can affect this reading.
But there's one huge source of pollution
that can't be missed,
major steel makers around the capital don't stop production
during the holiday because going offline is costlier
than running all year round.
So during the city shutdown some factories continue
to produce steel.
Li Hongmei is an analyst
who tracks the Chinese metal industry.
- Because of the outbreak all the normal pattern
has been broken so the construction sites are still
in the process of resuming work,
that's why their steel consumption slow down and delayed.
- [Narrator] Steel inventories are now at record high levels
because buyers in the construction industry
are demanding less right now.
Home sales were already cooling before the virus,
now they're below last year levels.
- Whenever you're not so sure about your national economy
you're not so sure about your job security,
about your income.
People definitely will be reducing expenditure
in a investment.
- [Narrator] In recent days Xi has been touting efforts
to meet economic targets while containing the virus,
like heavy stimulus to support banks and tax cuts
for small businesses.
But analysts say it's not clear whether these measures
can help make up for lost ground.
Some factories are slowly resuming production.
- So pollution levels that we're observing from space
are beginning to increase which may indicate
that economic activity could be resuming.
- [Narrator] Beijing recently put out the first full month
of economic data after the virus hit China.
The index tracks business sentiment among manufacturing
and service sectors and it falls
below the lowest level recorded
during the global financial crisis.
An increase in the number of infections overseas
could also put China's economy at greater risk,
complicating efforts to meet Xi's economic goals
for this year.
For now, one of the most visible indicators
to see how it all plays out might be just
to look up at the skies.
(relaxing music)