SENSELESS, BUT WE CAN MAKE
SOME SENSE OF IT. WHY IT'S
HAPPENING WHAT'S BEING DONE
ABOUT IT. WHO THE PLAYERS ARE
AND HOW THIS PARALLELS PAST
WARS YOU'VE ASKED US ABOUT ALL
THAT AND MORE. THANK YOU SO
MUCH FOR THESE GREAT
QUESTIONS. NOW, LET'S GET YOU
SOME ANSWERS. JOINING US
TONIGHT ARE RETIRED COLONEL
BRANDAN KEARNEY, A FORMER U.S.
MARINE CORPS CHIEF OF STAFF TO
EUROPE. COLONEL KEARNEY.
WELCOME TO THE PROGRAM.
>> IT'S A PLEASURE TO BE WITH
YOU.
>> AND JAMES GOLD GUY OR A
VISITING FELLOW AT THE
BROOKINGS INSTITUTION AND A
VISITING SCHOLAR AT STANFORD.
MISTER GOLD ARE WELCOME. THANK
YOU. THESE ARE SOME FANTASTIC
QUESTIONS. AND I WONDER,
MISTER GOEL GARFF. WE MIGHT
START WITH YOU AND A VERY
BASIC BUT SMART QUESTION THAT
BRENDA LEFT IN OUR INBOX.
>> THIS FUNCTION. HOPING THE
SCHOOL WITH UKRAINE'S WHY. I
JUST WANT COMPLETE
UNDERSTANDING OF WHAT IS THE
BEHIND IT.
>> THAT'S A VERY GOOD, VERY
COMPLEX QUESTION. MISTER GOING
BY. WHAT WOULD YOU SAY TO
BRENDA. WHY IS RUSSIA HAVING
THIS WAR WITH UKRAINE.
>> WELL, I MEAN, YOU SEE THESE
IMAGE IS THE CIVILIANS BEING
BOMBED IS JUST.
>> BRUTAL AND UNPROVOKED
ATTACK BY RUSSIA. IT SEEMS
TOTALLY SENSELESS BY. IF IT'S
IN WORLD VIEW. THIS IS, YOU
KNOW, HE'S BEEN ALL THESE
GRIEVANCES. HE'S BUILT UP OVER
THE YEARS, EVER SINCE THE
COLLAPSE OF THE SOVIET UNION.
HIS VIEWS THAT UKRAINE DOESN'T
HAVE A RIGHT TO EXIST AS AN
INDEPENDENT COUNTRY THAT THIS
IS A TERRITORY THAT BELONGS TO
RUSSIA AND OF COURSE HE
MISCALCULATED BADLY BECAUSE HE
THOUGHT GOING IN WITH THIS
MILITARY ASSAULT THAT PEOPLE
IN UKRAINE WOULD WELCOME THE
RUSSIANS AND. AND AGREE THEY
SHOULD JOIN RUSSIA. IN IN A
LARGER COUNTRY. I IT'S JUST
ABSOLUTELY MIND BOGGLING THAT
HE'S DONE THIS. BUT IT WAS
ALSO PREDICTABLE.
>> COLONEL KEARNEY, WHAT WOULD
YOU ADD TO THAT IN TERMS OF
BRENDA'S QUESTION, WHY IS THIS
HAPPENING?
>> WELL, YOU KNOW, THIS IS THE
EXTENSION OF WHAT HE DID IN
THE CRIMEA HERE A DECADE AGO.
HE'S BEEN HE'S BEEN VERY OPEN
IN SAYING WHAT HE WANTED TO
DO. HE'S BEEN VERY OPEN IN
SAYING WHERE HE THOUGHT RUSHES
PLACE IN THE WORLD IN EUROPE
AND IN HIS RELATIONSHIP
UKRAINE. SO BRENDA ASKED A
GREAT QUESTION. I GET ASKED
THAT VIRTUALLY EVERY IT IT
THAT IT'S VERY APPARENT IS THE
WHITE. HE'S GOING AHEAD AND
WHAT HE'S DONE.
>> ONE OF THE OTHER QUESTIONS
THAT COMES UP A LOT HAS TO DO
WITH NATO. WE'VE GOT SEVERAL
QUESTIONS ABOUT NATO,
INCLUDING THESE FROM PRISCILLA
AND LORETTA, HERE'S WHAT THEY
LEFT IN OUR INBOX.
>> WHY IS THAT TO UKRAINE
WASN'T ALLOWED TO BE PART OF
NATO WHEN THEY HAVE BEEN
ASKING FOR YEARS.
>> WHAT UKRAINE FROM NATO
TREATY YEAR LATE.
>> PRISCILLA LORETTA, THANK
YOU FOR THOSE QUESTIONS.
COLONEL CANNOT STICK WITH YOU
TO GIVE US A BIT OF THE BACK
STORY IN TERMS OF NATO AND
UKRAINE.
>> WELL, THERE'S 2 PIECES TO
YOU HAVE THE MILITARY PIECE
AND YOU HAVE THE POLITICAL
SPEECH FROM A MILITARY
PERSPECTIVE, THERE WAS AN
EFFORT THAT'S BEEN GOING ON
FOR A NUMBER YEARS SINCE
UKRAINE INDICATED THEY WANTED
TO JOIN NATO AND THAT WAS TO
MODERN TO MODERNIZE THEIR
MILITARY SHORT THOSE
STANDARDS. YOU KNOW, THEY COME
INTO AN LIKE NATO, YOU'VE GOT
TO BE ABLE FROM THE GET GO IN
CASE OF HAVING THEIRS GO TO
ARTICLE 5 SITUATION BEING ABLE
TO OPERATE WITH THE OTHER NATO
COUNTRIES AND QUITE FRANKLY IN
UKRAINE WOULD GET THIS. THEY
WERE NOWHERE NEAR IN CLOSE TO
MEETING THOSE NATO STANDARDS
SO THEY WORKED EXTREMELY HARD
OVER THE LAST DECADE PLUS TO
ACHIEVE THOSE.
>> THERE. THEY WERE I'M SORRY
TO INTERRUPT YOUR CURRENT. I'M
VERY SORRY TO INTERRUPT YOU,
BUT USE THE TERM. I THINK WE
SHOULD CLARIFY YOU MENTIONED
ARTICLE 5 RESPONSIBILITIES,
ARTICLE 5 OF THE NATO CHARTER
IS THE PART THAT SAYS AN
ATTACK ON ONE NATO COUNTRY IS
AN ATTACK ON EVERYBODY. IT'S
WHAT THE U.S. INVOKED AFTER
9.11 RIGHT. THAT'S EXACTLY
RIGHT. THAT'S EXACTLY RIGHT.
>> THE OTHER PIECE OF THIS
SHOW'S ADDRESSING THE MILITARY
PIECE. AND I THINK I GOT THAT
POINT ACROSS THE OTHER PIECE
IS A POLITICAL AND THAT IS
THAT NATO HOLDS ITS MEMBERS. 2
HIGH STANDARD STANDARDS IN
TERMS OF FUNCTION IN
BUREAUCRACY AND ONE THAT IS
SUPPOSEDLY MINIMAL HAS MINIMAL
IMPACT WHEN IT COMES TO YEAH.
CRIME AND CORRUPTION AND QUITE
FRANKLY, I THINK MOST OUTSIDE
OBSERVERS WOULD WOULD AGREE
THAT THE UKRAINE HAD UKRAINE
HAD SOME PROBLEMS WITH THAT
BUT THEY ALSO HAVE BEEN
CONTINUING TO WORK WITH.
BOTTOM LINE IS TO BOTH THOSE
QUESTIONNAIRES. THE THE
UKRAINIANS KNEW EXACTLY WHAT
WAS REQUIRED OF HIM IN TERMS
OF MEETING NATO STANDARDS.
THEY WERE WORKING VITALLY TO
ACHIEVE THOSE STANDARDS. THEY
HADN'T ARRIVED YET AND WHETHER
OR NOT THEY END UP IN IS STILL
A QUESTION THAT HAS TO BE
ANSWERED IN THE FUTURE.
>> MISTER GOLD ARE WE'VE GOT A
LOT OF QUESTIONS ABOUT
VLADIMIR PUTIN AND HIS FUTURE
HERE ARE SOME QUESTIONS THAT
JOE AND BETTY AND BRANDON LEFT
IN OUR INBOX.
>> WHO IS GOING REST, WHO DONE
FOR THESE WAR CRIMES AND IS
IN. INVADING ANOTHER COUNTRY.
A WAR CRIME IN ITSELF.
>> WHY CAN'T WE JUST DO A
COVERT MISSION TO TAKE OUT
PROBLEM SOLVED.
>> HOW COME WE?
>> DON'T. PUT IN NOW AND IT
ALL. WHY ARE WE WAITING AND
THE FIRST PLACE.
>> THANK YOU, JOE AND BETTY
AND BRANDON FOR YOUR
QUESTIONS. MISTER, GO BY. WHAT
WOULD YOU SAY IN TERMS OF JUST
THE OPTIONS FOR WHAT TO DO
ABOUT VLADIMIR PUTIN
SPECIFICALLY PERSONALLY.
>> WELL, THE OPTIONS WE'VE
CHOSEN OR TO USE SANCTIONS
AND, YOU KNOW, TRY TO PUNISH
RUSSIA AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE.
PUNISH THE PEOPLE AROUND
GROUPING AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE.
YOU KNOW, THOSE SENTIMENTS
THAT WERE EXPRESSING THE
QUESTIONS ARE TOTALLY
UNDERSTANDABLE, BUT. YOU KNOW,
PUTIN HAS ENGAGED IN THIS
ILLEGAL WAR. THIS COMMITTING
THESE WERE CRIMES AGAINST
UKRAINIAN CITIZENS. THAT
DOESN'T MEAN THAT WE SHOULD
THEN DO SOMETHING ILLEGAL LIKE
NATIVE FOREIGN LEADER EVER
SINCE PRESIDENT FORD ISSUED AN
EXECUTIVE ORDER AGAINST
ASSASSINATIONS OF FOREIGN
LEADERS AT THE UNITED STATES
HAS HAS SO TO BE VERY CAREFUL
ABOUT SOMETHING THAT WOULD
SEEN AS A LEGAL AND WOULD
CERTAINLY. GENERATE ENORMOUS
OPPOSITION AGAINST THE UNITED
STATES FROM THE FROM THE
RUSSIAN PEOPLE I THINK, YOU
KNOW, WE JUST CAN'T BE IN THAT
KIND OF BUSINESS. IS GOING TO
BE REMOVED FROM OFFICE. IT HAS
TO COME FROM WITHIN RUSSIA.
>> AND CAN WE ALSO JUST BE
CLEAR ON THIS. MISTER GOLD ARE
JUST A CURIOUS LITTLE FURTHER
FORWARD. I APPRECIATE USING
THE WORD ASSASSINATION BECAUSE
THAT'S WHAT WE'RE TALKING
ABOUT, RIGHT. WE'RE TALKING
ABOUT KILLING AHEAD OF STATES,
WHICH IS LITERALLY AN ACT OF
WAR BUT ALSO ON TOP OF THAT, I
DON'T THINK OUR ALLIES WOULD
GO FOR THAT. LIKE I DON'T KNOW
HOW WE CONVINCE NATO AND OUR
FRIENDS IN THE EUROPEAN UNION
AND CANADA AND THE U K THAT
THAT'S LIKE OUR BEST IDEA IN
TERMS OF HOW TO DEAL WITH
THIS. I JUST DON'T KNOW HOW WE
WOULD DO THAT AND HAVE ANY OF
OUR ALLIES FOLLOW US INTO THAT
PLAN.
>> RIGHT. I JUST REMEMBER ME
RIGHT NOW RUSSIA, RUSSIA IS
THE GLOBAL PARIAH, THE
INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY IS
UNITED AGAINST RUSSIA THAT
WERE 141 COUNTRIES THAT VOTED
FOR THAT UN RESOLUTION
CONDEMNING CONDEMNING THIS AGGRESSION. THAT'S WHERE WE
AGGRESSION. THAT'S WHERE WE
WANT. THE FOCUS TO BE ON PUTIN
AND HIS ILLEGAL ACTIVITIES. WE
DON'T WANT TO MUDDY THE WATERS
BY DOING SOMETHING OURSELVES.
THAT WOULD BE
COUNTERPRODUCTIVE ILLEGAL AND
AND WOULD. GENERATE ENORMOUS
OPPOSITION. NOT ONLY WITHIN
RUSSIA BUT AS YOU SUGGEST IN
OTHER COUNTRIES AS WELL.
>> SO THAT KIND OF A DIRECT
APPROACH IS PROBABLY NOT GOING
TO FLY WITH THE INTERNATIONAL
COMMUNITY. BUT THERE ARE OTHER
KINDS OF MILITARY OPTIONS THAT
HAVE BEEN CONTEMPLATED FOR
THOSE OF YOU WHO MISSED LAST
NIGHT'S SHOW. WE HAD A LONG
CONVERSATION IS REALLY
WONDERFUL DEBATE ABOUT THE
PROSPECTS OF A NO FLY ZONE
OVER UKRAINE. IF YOU MISSED
THAT, GO CHECK US OUT ON
SOCIAL WORK AT NBC. NOW
TONIGHT VERY MUCH WORTH
WATCHING. BUT ANOTHER THING
THAT CAME UP, COLONEL HAD TO
DO WITH UN PEACE KEEPERS,
PUTTING THEM ON THE GROUND. HERE'S WHAT JOHN WANTS TO
HERE'S WHAT JOHN WANTS TO
KNOW. LISTEN.
>> WHY WE HAVING PEACE KEEPING
UN TROOPS THERE TO HELP KEEP
HARD TO PROVIDE PROTECTION FOR
QUARTERS.
>> GOOD QUESTION, JOHN. COLONEL. SO THE EXCELLENT
COLONEL. SO THE EXCELLENT
QUESTION. THERE'S A VARIETY OF
REASONS THAT IT REALLY IS
IMPRACTICAL TO USE UNITED
NATIONS TROOPS TO
PEACEKEEPING. FIRST OF ALL,
YOU ESSENTIALLY HAVE TO HAVE
BOTH SIDES AGREED TO THE
PEACEKEEPERS BEING ON THE
GROUND. AND I DON'T THINK
EITHER THE UKRAINIANS OR THE
RUSSIANS OR ARE AT THAT STAGE
RIGHT NOW WHERE THEY AGREE TO
HAVE THE PEACEKEEPERS THERE.
SECONDLY, TRADITIONALLY MOST
OF THESE PEACEKEEPERS COME
FROM COUNTRIES QUITE FRANKLY,
THEY NEED THE MONEY. THEIR
TROOPS, THEIR MILITARIES ARE
UNDERFUNDED BY GOING ON UN
PEACEKEEPING DUTY. THEY THEY
AND THEY END UP BEING ABLE TO
BUILD UP THE COFFERS FOR THEIR
OWN COUNTRY SAID IF YOU MAKE
MONEY. AND I DON'T THINK
THERE'S ANY COUNTRIES OUT
THERE RIGHT ABSENT ONE OR 2
THAT WOULD WANT TO PUT
THEMSELVES IN BETWEEN 2
BELLIGERENCE THAT REALLY HAVE
ENGAGED IN A TOTAL COMBINED
ARMS WORK FOR IT IT WOULD BE
BRUTAL. BE VERY TOUGH ASK EVEN
THE MOST PROFESSIONAL MILITARY
FORCES TO BE PUT IN THAT TYPE
OF SITUATION.
>> AND COLONEL, I JUST WANT TO
BE CLEAR. WE'RE TALKING ABOUT.
WE TALKED ABOUT A LOT OF
DIFFERENT KINDS OF MILITARY
ENGAGEMENTS. NO FLY ZONES AND
RUSSIA'S ATTACKS AND UKRAINE'S
ATTACKS A NATO AND AND AND AND
UN PEACEKEEPERS. THESE ARE
DIFFERENT KINDS OF MILITARY IS
RIGHT. THE UN PEACEKEEPERS ARE
NOT THERE FOR THE SAME REASON
AS NATO, WHICH IS TO DEFEND
NATO MEMBERS MUTUALLY LIKE
THESE ARE VERY DIFFERENT KINDS
OF ORGANIZATIONS WITH
DIFFERENT KINDS OF MISSIONS
AND LIMITS ON WHAT THEY'LL DO
IT.
>> THAT'S RIGHT. REALLY IT
TAKES A HIGHLY CAPABLE. WELL
TRAINED MILITARY FORCE HANDLE
THAT TYPE SITUATION THAT THIS
TYPE OF PEACEKEEPING OPERATION
WOULD INVOLVE. AND I JUST
DON'T SEE ANYBODY OUT THERE
RIGHT NOW THAT WOULD DO IT,
LET ALONE A TOW EXPRESS. I'M
SORRY, NOT NATO. THE UN
EXPRESSING THE WILLINGNESS TO
GO AHEAD AND PUT THE UN TROOPS
IN THAT SITUATION.
>> LET'S GET TO A FEW MORE
QUESTIONS BEFORE OUR TIME IS
UP. MISTER GOEL GEIER. WE'VE
HEARD A LOT OF COMPARISONS
BETWEEN WORLD WAR 2 AND NOW I
WONDER IF WE COULD GO JUST FOR
THE CONTROL ROOM TO NUMBER 7
QUESTION NUMBER 7, WHICH IS
E-MAIL FROM ANDY. ANDY ASKED
IS RUSSIA GETTING AWAY WITH SO
MUCH SIMPLY BECAUSE EVERYONE
IS AFRAID TO STAND UP TO
RUSSIA AND TRIGGER WORLD WAR 3
WASN'T THE BUDAPEST MEMORANDUM
OF 1994 SUPPOSED TO PROTECT
UKRAINE FROM WHAT'S HAPPENING
RIGHT NOW. I'M GOING TO ASK
YOU, MISTER GOLD ARE JUST
ANSWER THAT FIRST PART WE DID
TALK ABOUT THE BUDAPEST
MEMORANDUM ON THIS PROGRAM NOT
LONG AGO. THAT WAS THE DEAL.
THE GOT NUCLEAR WEAPONS OUT OF
UKRAINE IN EXCHANGE FOR KIND
OF GENTLEMEN'S AGREEMENT THAT
THAT THEY WOULD PROTECTED FROM
INVASION. RUSSIA BROKE THAT
AGREEMENT. WHAT ABOUT THAT,
THE PHRASE WORLD WAR 3 GETS
THROWN AROUND A LOT THESE
DAYS. MISTER GO GUY OR IS THAT
AN APPS CONCERN.
>> WELL, ANYTIME YOU'RE YOU'RE
TALKING ABOUT POTENTIAL
CONFLICT WITH A NUCLEAR ARMED
ADVERSARY LIKE RUSSIA, WHICH
IS THE OTHER NUCLEAR
SUPERPOWER. OTHER THAN THE
UNITED STATES. WHEN YOU HAVE
TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT
ESCALATION TO MAJOR WAR. AND I
MEAN, RIGHT NOW THIS WAR IS
LIMITED AND YOU KNOW,
UNFORTUNATELY FOR THE
UKRAINIANS, OF COURSE, THAT
THEY ARE BEARING THE BRUNT OF
THIS RUSSIAN ASSAULT. IT IS
LIMITED TO UKRAINE AND NATO IS
BEING VERY CAREFUL. WELL,
SUPPLIED, UKRAINE WITH WEAPONS
TO HELP THE UKRAINIANS DEFEND
THEMSELVES. NATO'S BEING VERY
CAREFUL. PRESIDENT BIDEN. IT'S
BEEN VERY CLEAR THAT U.S.
TROOPS, NATO TROOPS ARE GOING
TO BE GOING TO UKRAINE, NOT
GOING ESTABLISH A NO FLY ZONE
WHICH WOULD THEN HAVE TO BE
ENFORCED AND COULD LEAD TO
SHOOT DOWN SOME RUSSIAN
PLANES. SO I THINK, YOU KNOW,
THERE'S A LEGITIMATE CONCERN
ABOUT THE ESCALATION AND
RUSSIA IS A NUCLEAR ARMED
ADVERSARY AND PUT IT HAS
RAISED THE SPECTER OF NUCLEAR
WEAPONS USE IN THIS WAR. SO,
YOU KNOW, IT'S THIS BALANCING
ACT BETWEEN TRYING TO DO AS
MUCH AS POSSIBLE TO SUPPORT
THESE BRAVE UKRAINIANS AND NOT
ESCALATING TO A BROADER
NATO-RUSSIA WAR.
>> LET ME SEE IF WE CAN
SQUEEZE IN ONE MORE QUESTION
THAT WE GOT HERE IN MANHATTAN
ON THIS GLORIOUS DAY IN NEW
YORK. WE SPENT SOME TIME OUT
OF WASHINGTON SQUARE PARK. AND
COLONEL, WE HEARD FROM SHOW
VICK WHO HAD THIS QUESTION
WATCH.
>> REALISTICALLY HOW LONG WE
CAN EXPECT THIS WAR COULD GO
IN AND WORK WITH THE POLITICAL
OUTCOME
>> SO THE QUESTION, COLONEL,
THE END GAME. HOW LONG MIGHT
THIS GO ON AND WHAT WOULD BE
THE POLITICAL OUTCOME FOR
RUSSIA AND UKRAINE.
>> IT IS A GREAT QUESTION. THE
SHOW CLEARLY HAS BEEN THINKING
ABOUT IT AS WE ALL HAVE. >> HOW LONG WILL IT GO IT
>> HOW LONG WILL IT GO IT
COULD GO ON WEEKS YEARS,
PARTICULARLY BE THE LONGER
TERM IS IF THE RUSSIANS
SOMEHOW MANAGED TO PULL OFF
SHORT TERM MILITARY SUCCESS BY
TAKING OVER THE COUNTRY. THEY
WILL THEN FLY A LONG TERM.
GUERRILLA WARFARE THAT I SEE
JUST LASTING YEARS AND YEARS
AND YEARS. THE OBVIOUSLY IS
GOING TO BE DETERMINED BY THE
PARTICIPANTS THEMSELVES AND
HOW THIS DOES END UP ENDING
WHENEVER IT DOESN'T. RUSSIA
COULD CHANGE ITS APPROACH
TOMORROW. IF A HOOT WAS
REMOVED OR SOMEBODY ELSE TOOK
OVER THE POWER. THERE AND
SAID, OK, THIS IS CRAZY. LET'S
BACK OUT THAT WOULD THAT WOULD
BE A GOOD, GOOD APPROACH. STEP
NUMBER ONE. BUT I DON'T THINK
ANY OF US SEE THAT HAPPENING
ANYTIME SOON. UKRAINIANS
POLITICALLY THEY'RE NOT GOING
TO GIVE UP. THEY'RE GOING TO
KEEP FIGHTING AND THEY'RE
GOING I THINK CONTINUE TO DO
THE MAGNIFICENT JOB. THAT IS
IMPRESSED THE ENTIRE WORLD
HERE OVER THE COMING WEEKS,
MONTHS IF NOT YEARS.
>> I'LL TELL YOU ONE POLITICAL
OUTCOME THAT I WOULD SUSPECT
AT LEAST IF THINGS CONTINUE ON
THIS TRAJECTORY THAT UKRAINE
WILL BECOME A CLOSER MEMBER OF
AT LEAST THE WESTERN
INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY AND
PRESIDENT ZELENSKY STAR WILL
CONTINUE TO RISE. I THINK HE'S
IMPRESSED ALL THE RIGHT
PEOPLE. AND THEN ASKING A LOT
OF THE RIGHT QUESTIONS. SO WE
WILL SEE IF THAT CONTINUES.
THIS HAS BEEN EXTREMELY
HELPFUL. COLONEL BRITAIN
KEARNEY AND MISTER JAMES GOLD
GEIER WHO MADE A LITTLE TIME
FOR US ON HIS BIRTHDAY TO
ANSWER SOME QUESTIONS.
GENTLEMEN, WE APPRECIATE YOU
SHARING YOUR INSIGHTS TONIGHT.
I DON'T WANT TO EMBARRASS
UNTIL THE VERY END. I DIDN'T
WANT TO DISTRACT YOU, BUT MANY
HAVE THE RETURNS TO SERVE AND
BOTH MEETING WITH US. WE PRAY
THAT STATES. I'M SORRY. I'VE
SPILLED STATE SECRETS. I'M
VERY SORRY THANK YOU BOTH VERY
MUCH. WE REALLY APPRECIATE IT.
THANK YOU. THANK YOU. THAT
CHANCES ARE THESE ANSWERS
SPARKED SOME MORE QUESTIONS
FOR YOU.
>> THAT'S A GOOD THING. SO
PLEASE KEEP THEM COMING
ANYTHING AT ALL THAT YOU WOULD
LIKE ANSWERED. WE'RE AT NBC
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