You're about to discover seven reasons
you should seriously hold and reconsider
booking your 2021 cruise, right now.
I'm Gary Bembridge.
This is another of my cruising tips for travellers.
Lots of people are getting very excited, enthusiastic
about booking a cruise in 2021
as 2020 looks increasingly difficult for cruising.
So they want some certainty,
they want something to look forward.
However, there are seven things that I think you need
to really think about and caution yourself
before you rush into booking cruises in 2021.
Starting with this one.
We don't really know how many cruise lines
will actually survive into next year.
That might sound a little gloomy.
However, it's very likely that cruising is going to struggle
to start in 2020 or maybe seriously delayed.
For all sort of reasons,
with new rulings from the CDC in the US,
lots of ports closed in Canada, Australia.
Lots of international travel bans
look like staying in place towards the end of the year,
getting crew back onto ships once they want to restart.
So 2020 is looking really tough.
And we just don't know which cruise lines
and how many cruise lines will survive.
So there is always a risk, if you book your 2021 cruise.
Some cruise lines don't survive this
and you end up loosing your money.
In 9/11, which had a much shorter period
before travels restarted again,
a number of small independent cruise lines
did actually go out of service.
So really you need to think very carefully,
which cruise line and whether you want to commit right now,
until it's much clearer who is surviving into 2021.
The really big cruise line groups,
the Carnival Corporation which includes obviously,
Carnival Cruise Lines, Holland America, Princess,
Seabourn, AIDA and a whole bunch of other cruise lines
including Cunard.
You've then got Royal Caribbean which includes
of course Royal Caribbean, Celebrity, Azamara.
You've got Norwegian which is Norwegian Cruise Line,
and also includes Oceania and Region Seven Seas.
Those raised quite a lot of money in the market.
And actually are funding themselves and having liquidity,
which takes them for at least towards the end of the year
and into next year so those groups may survive.
However, the longer that the shutdown goes,
we just don't know how many cruise brands there will be,
how many cruise lines will survive.
So really, you need to think really carefully
because it's not business as usual.
There's an enormous amount of pressure on cruise lines
and cruise lines finances.
The second critical reason is the itineraries.
The ships, the routes will probably, in my view,
not run as advertised.
If you think about it,
the 2021 programme was set a couple of years ago
when it was business as usual.
So all the ports were open, the regions were open,
they knew how many ships they had,
they had new ships coming on.
However, we just don't know which regions will open,
when they will open,
which ports will welcome back cruise lines
because some regions have been very hostile
towards cruise ships and cruise lines.
Some countries and states are being very hostile.
We just don't know which ships will be in service,
which regions will be open, which ports will be open.
So one thing I think we can guarantee is that
the 2021 brochure, the 2021 list of cruises,
is probably not going to operate as expected,
because this was planned a long time ago.
If cruise lines start laying up ships,
taking ships out of service,
they may keep them out of service to try
and not have too much capacity out there.
Also really bear in mind that when you book a cruise,
the cruise terms and conditions allow the cruise line
to adjust and change the itinerary
without you having any recourse.
So unless it's cancelled,
you will go on a cruise which may not include
the ports you want.
So if you're looking at booking a cruise,
a dream cruise to a regional part of the world
that you absolutely want to go to
and the certain ports you want to go to,
bear in mind, there is a possibility
and I think it's quite a strong possibility,
that many, many itineraries and ports will change.
So you may be buying a cruise that just won't happen.
I also think personally that we will find
the scale of cruising changing.
So I think we might find much more focus on
the Mediterranean, Alaska and the Caribbean
with the big traditional cruising markets.
Some of those more exotic cruises may start to fade away
until things really, really get back to normal.
So a really big key watch out.
A third, another key reason is pricing.
At the moment, as I've taken a look at pricing for 2021 is
the prices are still very much built on what seems to be
business as usual.
So the prices, I think, are still pretty high,
because they're based on what
the brochure prices were at that time.
Now, at the moment,
we're already seeing lots of offers coming on.
So I'm seeing increasingly for 2021 cruises.
Although the fare hasn't changed that much,
lots of benefits are being added on.
So you might get example credit,
or I've seen lots of deals where they're throwing in WiFi.
Especially dining, gratuities, all sorts of added perks
and benefits to try and make a better value proposition.
However, I think we can say with quite a lot of certainty
that demand for cruising will be less because
the new to cruise people who were considering cruising
are very likely to have been put off.
A lot of people who perhaps dabbled with cruising,
may be put off by all the really negative publicity
and media that's been built up.
You might also find,
that there's more peer pressure not to go on cruises.
People are worried about you getting stuck and quarantined,
all that kind of stuff happening.
And we just don't know what that is going to be.
So prices at the moment are still pretty high.
I do think that combination of all these factors,
is going to put a lot of pressure on pricing.
I genuinely believe,
that there will be a lot of capacity next year,
even if the cruise lines
do cut back what they're doing.
There will be a lot of good offers
and deals once this dust is settled.
Once they know they're back in operation.
I mean, they can really assess
how full ships are going to be.
So by locking 2021 cruises in now,
you're removing the chance to be flexible and nimble,
as more offers and deals are available.
You may disagree with that
and you actually believe locking in is
the right thing to do now and of course
that's a decision that many people seem to be taking.
One of the things that I've been thinking about a lot
is what is going to happen to the onboard cost.
As you know, when you get on a cruise, you've paid the fare.
But once you get on board,
there's a lot of extra costs often come along.
And I actually wonder whether many of those costs
are going to increase significantly,
driven by social distancing.
What we know from what people are saying,
it's probably unlikely that there's going to be vaccines
until well into 2021, even on a fast track.
Are they going to be widely available?
So we're still going to be managing the whole virus situation.
And a big key part of that is going to be social distancing.
So as social distancing gets applied, think about
the impact you're going to have on those extra onboard costs.
First of all, there is a chance
that cruise lines will sell with less people on.
So there is a chance therefore,
that they need to try and build up
and make more money from
the things that they're offering on board.
Because they might have to have less people on board to try
and manage social distancing.
That could mean that to make sure that the crew are paid,
you might find things like gratuities go up significantly.
I think you'll also find potentially
that tour prices will go up.
Because they'll probably have to run smaller tour groups
so they can actually spread people out on the bus,
spread people out when they go on tour
to keep social distancing in place.
So it's likely then
that costs will build as a result of that.
The other thing that may happen,
is actually transportation to and from the port,
to join the ship could be significantly more expensive.
One of the big discussions at, certainly,
the time of recording this,
is that until there is a much more testing process in place,
to screen passengers getting on,
which probably needs to go beyond temperature checks,
that there may be flights flying with social distancing.
So at the moment already we're seeing,
as people talking about heading back into flying,
that the middle seat may be kept empty,
alternative rows may only be booked.
And there's a lot of discussion that airfare prices
heading into 2021 may be quite a bit more expensive.
One of the other key reasons for not booking 2021 now
is we don't actually know how cruising is going to operate.
At this point of time we don't know
the rules and regulations around the whole cruising process.
We don't know
whether you're going to have to get a medical certificate,
a vaccine certificate when that comes in.
Whether actually
there's going to be much more advanced medical screening,
which might involve testing you
and doing a COVID-19 test before you get on the cruise,
doing tests during the cruise.
We just don't know what that whole process of ensuring
that when people get on to the ship,
they're 100% clear of the virus.
And as we know temperature checking is not enough.
So you might find that too intrusive.
You don't want to take the risk
that you head off somewhere to a cruise,
you finally get on the cruise and you're denied boarding.
We don't know what the refund process will be.
If you find you get sick, quite close to the cruise,
because the travel insurance will not cover anything related
to the virus.
So at the moment, the booking conditions for cruises
are still showing, you know all the bookings in 2021.
You know the very traditional cancellation process,
where you pay 60 to 90 days before
and pretty much you're going to lose 75% to 100% of the fare.
We don't know how that's going to work.
If there is an incident on board we don't know how
the quarantine process is going to work.
We know that the CDC in the US are talking about
not letting people come back on land,
that there's going to have to be quarantine ships,
there's going to be hospital ships.
And really importantly,
if you're a senior, so certainly at the moment 70 plus,
that may come to a lower age.
At this point of time to go cruising,
it was introduced just before the shutdown,
you have to have a medical certificate.
So there's a whole process of actually seeing the doctor,
getting medical certificate.
So there's lots of other hurdles that you may have to do.
So we just don't know yet what the actual process,
the procedures for cruising in 2021 are going to be.
So you may want to hold back
until we have certainty around that to see if you actually
feel comfortable cruising with those procedures.
Another thing that I think will happen,
is you're going to find your access to facilities
and how things work on board will change.
As I mentioned,
I do believe that social distancing is going to be a key part
of managing the whole process moving forward.
So what we already seen some cruise lines talking about,
is only filling the theatres half full,
having restrictions on how many people can be,
say in the gym.
When they hold events,
how there can only be so many people there.
Perhaps around the swimming pool or in bars,
there'll be restrictions,
on how many people can be in different venues,
how far they can be apart.
So certainly, it's likely that the way
that you're going to be able to access facilities,
use facilities is probably going to be very, very different.
Because it's unlikely you're going to have
those big groups of people congregating on board,
because of the whole rules around social distancing
and managing that whole process.
So certainly, you might find, for example,
there might be less entertainment available,
because if they're only running the theatres half full,
they might have the same show on for two or three nights,
and so less choice.
Another really critical point is travel insurance.
Now travel insurance will not cover COVID-19
and virus pandemic related issues.
So if anything happens on your cruise related to that,
you need to be confident that
the cruise line is going to cover that,
within what they are offering and what they're proposing.
But really importantly,
you might also find that the cost of cruise travel insurance
increases significantly because of the whole reputation
and the sort of passion against cruising
that has been built up.
So for example, you might find there are more limitations,
it's harder to get particularly if you're an older traveller,
and just may become quite difficult to obtain.
Whenever you book travel insurance,
it's really important that you get
and check that it has cruise cover,
because there are quite a lot of extra costs
with cruise cover like medevacs
and different issues like that,
which normally is not premium.
But travel insurance could be a challenge
to get for cruisers next year.
And again, we don't really know how
that's all going to settle.
And whether it's even going to be possible.
Because you don't want to be travelling without travel insurance
in case you have some non-COVID related issue.
Because obviously medical costs can be really high.
You lose your baggage
or anything that would normally be covered by insurance.
It's very tempting to be booking cruise for 2021 right now,
because all of us, of course are looking for hope
and dreams and plans for the future,
once we're through everything that's going on.
However, it may be a good idea to think about
and pause a little bit before you commit yourself to 2021.
You may want to wait until it's really really clear
and absolutely signed off
by all governments around the world,
all regions around the world when cruising can start.
We've seen for example,
the CDC in the US have a whole lot of criteria.
And they're saying that cruising is going to not kick up
for quite some time.
In Europe, we're seeing the EU talking about
closing their borders to foreign travellers,
to at least September.
France saying to October.
It means they're not going to be able
to get crew back on the ships.
Probably if you're a non EU resident,
you won't be able to join ships in Europe.
So there's so much uncertainties.
So why don't you really think about,
is it worth waiting and seeing how the dust settles,
before you commit money that you may regret later.
I have loads more tips and advice about cruising.
So why don't you watch another one of those right now?